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September 13, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for September 13, 2025
The highest conviction trade in the world The highest conviction trade in the world is that the Fed will cut short-term rates by 25 basis points next week as it begins an easing cycle that will take interest rates down ~100 basis points by early 2026, and perhaps by ~150 basis points by late 2026. The […]
September 7, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for September 7, 2025
The summer doldrums are over – tensions and volatility surge, creating great trading opportunities! Gold is at record highs, in nominal and inflation-adjusted terms. Comex gold futures are up ~38% YTD, up~100% from the October 2023 lows (blue ellipse) made just before the Hamas attack on Israel. A weaker USD (down ~12% YTD to 3-year lows) […]
August 30, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for August 30, 2025
The times they are a-changin’ August feels like the lull before the storm that strikes once we get past Labour Day. The meandering price action and low volatility we’ve seen may be replaced by strong directional moves and increased volatility. September is historically the worst month of the year for the stock market. The leading American […]
August 23, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for August 23, 2025
Powell was more dovish than expected at Jackson Hole Powell’s speech on Friday morning was the most anticipated financial event of the week. Following the hotter-than-expected PPI report last week (which may have foreshadowed higher tariff-induced inflation ahead), markets were positioned for Powell to maintain his inflation hawk role. Following the August 14 PPI report (blue […]
August 16, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for August 16, 2025
Quote of the week “Mood is now more important than earnings to the stock market.” Alyosha, Market Vibes, on Substack. The bullish mood is driving global stock indices to record highs. Long live FOMO, TINA, and YOLO. The S&P is up ~35% from the April lows, the NAZ is up ~45%, the TSE is up ~27%, […]
August 9, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for August 9, 2025
Creative destruction: move fast and break things This week was short on scheduled market-moving economic data (setting aside the poorly bid bond auctions), but Trump (God bless’em) kept things lively. Trump imposed a 39% tariff on Switzerland and a 50% rate on India (if they don’t stop buying Russian crude oil). Additionally, he imposed a 100% […]
August 2, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for August 2, 2025
The S&P closed at record highs last week, but fell to 1-month lows this week The September S&P futures closed at record highs last week, traded higher on Monday, fell off ~100 points to Wednesday’s lows, but gapped higher after the close on strong MSFT and META reports. The market opened higher on Thursday, but couldn’t […]
July 26, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for July 26, 2025
Markets are not expecting RISK! The leading global equity indices are at or near all-time highs. The S&P is up ~33% from the April lows, the NAZ is up ~42%. (NVDA is up >100%.) (Open interest in the S&P futures market fell to an 18-year low this week. Perhaps because one S&P futures contract is now […]
July 19, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for July 19, 2025
The Trend Is Your Friend – summerweight edition! The S&P has rallied nearly 10X in the last 16 years. It is up ~3X from the covid lows five years ago. It’s up ~30% from the April 2025 “Liberation Day” lows. And this week, when the S&P fell ~100 points on “fresh news” that Trump was planning […]
July 12, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for July 12, 2025
The bull market in risk assets continues Bitcoin reached new all-time highs this week, up ~60% from the April lows. Silver surged to a 14-year high, up ~42% from the April lows. Copper hit all-time highs of ~$5.90 (basis September Comex), up ~43% from April lows. Comex copper futures surged from ~$5.00 to ~$5.90 (~18%) in four […]
July 5, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for July 5, 2025
The S&P, NAZ and TSE hit new record highs this week The S&P is up ~30% from the April lows (~7% YTD), the NAZ is up ~40% from the April lows (~8% YTD), and the Toronto Composite is up ~22% from the April lows (~9% YTD). Big Cap Tech has led the rally, with MSFT up ~45% from the […]
June 28, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for June 28, 2025
This year’s S&P rally to new all-time highs, after dropping more than 20% in three months, was the quickest ever! The S&P has dropped by more than 20% four times in the last 10 years. (2018 down 21% in three months, 2020 down 36% in two months, 2022 down 27% in ten months and 2025 down […]
June 21, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for June 21, 2025
Market reaction to the Israel/Iran war has been muted Israel and Iran are at war, but you wouldn’t know it from looking at this S&P futures chart. The daily WTI crude oil chart shows a bigger price reaction, with prices up ~25% since the beginning of June. However, on the monthly chart, prices around $73 don’t […]
June 14, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for June 14, 2025
Israel attacked Iran – price action was subdued Nymex WTI futures spiked ~$10 on the news, to the highest prices since January, but closed the day (and the week) ~$5 below the highs. The setback from Friday’s highs may have been an excellent example of “buy the rumour, sell the news.” At Friday’s highs, WTI was up ~30% […]
June 7, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for June 7, 2025
Silver surges to a 13-year high Comex July silver futures reached a 13-year high of ~$36.50 this week, up ~10% for the week and ~30% from the April 7 lows. Some analysts suggested that Chinese speculative buying of silver (now that gold is “too expensive”) fuelled the rally. Silver rallied to ~$50 in 2011, at the […]
May 24, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for May 24, 2025
Are bond markets about to “seriously object” to soaring government deficits? The 30-year US Treasury bond yield hit an 18-year high of 5.15% on Thursday. Bond market stress increases as yields rise, especially if they rise quickly. The US 10-year Treasury yield hit a historic high of ~15% in 1981, fell to a historic low of […]
May 17, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for May 17, 2025
Global stock markets continue to bounce back from their April lows Given that the April 7 lows were created by extraordinary tit-for-tat tariff increases between the USA and China, the “much better than expected” meeting between the two countries last weekend inspired a gap-higher opening this week, especially in tech issues. The S&P closed this […]
May 10, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for May 10, 2025
Is a long-term rotation out of US assets beginning? The S&P hit all-time highs in February (Trump’s new Golden Era would be American exceptionalism on steroids), then trended lower into early April, down ~9%. Following “Liberation Day” and subsequent “tariff bluster” (which led to tariffs on China of 145%), the S&P plunged to 15-month lows on April […]
May 3, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for May 3, 2025
The 180-degree turn in market sentiment from bearish to bullish has been sustained, powering the S&P higher for nine consecutive days The S&P was down ~22% at the April 7 lows (blue ellipse) following “Liberation Day” and subsequent tariff escalations. Two days later, Trump “paused” many of the tariffs to allow for “trade deals” to be […]
April 26, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for April 26, 2025
Markets hit “peak uncertainty” on Monday and then reversed dramatically! The US Dollar, bonds and stock markets closed near their lows on Monday, while gold closed at all-time highs. Volatility metrics were high, and it was beginning to look like the existential risks surrounding the recent “Sell America” sentiment were producing a “capital flight” away […]
April 19, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for April 19, 2025
The Bull in the china shop = uncertainty, volatility & capital flight The US Dollar Index has fallen ~10% since Inauguration Day (blue ellipse) to the lowest level in nearly three years. Gold has rallied ~$600 (~22%) since Inauguration Day to all-time highs. The Gold Monitor: Gold is surging as the US Dollar falls.. The S&P is […]
April 12, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for April 12, 2025
Fear trumps greed, but volatility is mean-reverting The cash S&P hit 15-month lows on Monday, down ~21% from February’s all-time highs. It then rallied ~13% to Wednesday’s highs as Trump paused tariffs on most countries other than China, where he dramatically increased tariffs. Last week’s big drop and this week’s big gain were among the most […]
April 5, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for April 5, 2025
Slowly at first, and then suddenly The cash S&P 500 index closed Friday ~9% below last Friday’s close, with virtually all of those losses coming after Trump’s Liberation Day ceremony. The index is down ~17.5% from mid-February’s record highs, and outside of the covid crash in 2020, the two-day performance on Thursday/Friday was the worst since the […]
March 29, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for March 29, 2025
The S&P: lowest weekly close in seven months The S&P tumbled ~660 points (~11%) from its all-time highs in mid-February to the March 13 lows (pink ellipse), bounced ~275 points (~5%) to this week’s highs, but then dropped ~235 points (~4%) to this week’s close—the lowest weekly close since September 6, 2024 (blue ellipse.) Many analysts […]
March 22, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for March 22, 2025
Gold hit new highs again this week, up ~$1,000 from year-ago levels Front-month COMEX gold futures rallied to ~$3,065 this week, up over $400 (~15%) from the January 2025 lows, up ~$1,260 (~70%) from the pre-Hamas attack on Israel lows in October 2023 (blue ellipse) and up ~$1,450 (~90%) from the October 2022 lows (pink ellipse.) […]