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January 24, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for January 24, 2026
Trump fatigue? The S&P gapped lower and closed on its lows on Tuesday after the MLK long weekend (blue ellipse), following Trump’s bellicosity over Greenland and ahead of his scheduled Davos speech on Wednesday. (US bonds and the USD also fell sharply on Tuesday in a “sell the USA” wave.) The S&P rallied on Wednesday, when […]
January 17, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for January 17, 2026
The Art Of The Deal I started this year with a “gut feeling” that events in 2026 would “rock our world.” When Trump snatched Madero, I wrote, “Here we go.” This morning, Trump cranked up the “We have to have Greenland” pressure by declaring that Germany, France, the UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and […]
January 11, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for January 11, 2026
“Uninvestible” Daren Woods, the Chairman and CEO of ExxonMobile for the past nine years, delivered a succinct message about Venezuela to President Trump at the White House on Friday. Big Oil will NOT be spending zillions of dollars in Venezuela any time soon. There will NOT be a flood of crude coming out of the country […]
January 3, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for January 3, 2026
Anything can happen I recorded my Moneytalks interview yesterday and told Mike that I had a gut feeling that events in 2026 would “rock our world,” and asked, “What will Donald Trump do to make sure the Republicans retain control of Congress in the mid-term elections that are less than nine months away?” I woke up this morning […]
December 20, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for December 20, 2025
Some brief comments and some interesting charts ahead of Christmas week Stocks: S&P futures closed last Friday near their lows for the week, and the selling continued Monday through Wednesday this week as investors had 2nd thoughts about the AI trade and rotated into defensive issues. The market pivoted on Thursday morning, on the “much-better-than-expected” CPI […]
December 13, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for December 13, 2025
Brief notes today – lots of charts The S&P surged on Wednesday and Thursday after the not-so-hawkish (?) cut from the Fed, nearly making a new record high, but slipped lower overnight Thursday and tumbled on Friday as traders seemed to have “second thoughts” about AI. The “second thoughts” about AI were more pronounced in the […]
December 6, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for December 6, 2025
Run it hot The rally in risk assets is supported, in part, by ideas that governments around the world will “Run It Hot” (with stimulative fiscal and monetary policies) to ramp up economic growth as they try to outrun the consequences of the global sovereign debt crisis. The “debasement trade” involves buying risk assets as a […]
November 29, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for November 29, 2025
Leading global stock indices bounced back this week following the recent “excessive optimism purge” The S&P reached record highs on October 9, but tumbled on the 10th amid China’s threat to withhold essential rare earths (blue ellipse). The market rallied back on AI enthusiasm and gapped higher over the October 24/25 weekend (pink ellipse) to reach new record […]
November 22, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for November 22, 2025
Volatile price action in leading global stock indices At Friday’s lows, the S&P was down ~6% from the October all-time highs, and the NAZ was down ~9%. Aggressive bullish sentiment and positioning in AI fuelled the run to October’s highs, but prices began to slip in November amid concerns about massive capex expenditures. Bulls were hoping NVDA […]
November 15, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for November 15, 2025
Too much leverage? A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that “too much leverage in the market’s Achilles heel.” Google AI defines Achilles heel as: “a metaphor for a fatal weakness or vulnerability in an otherwise strong person or thing.” I’ve traded futures and options for nearly fifty years. It’s a venue that offers exceptional opportunities for […]
November 8, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for November 8, 2025
Quote of the week: “Hyperscaler cash flow can’t cover the AI capex arms race.” Mike Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist, Bank of America The S&P and the NAZ gapped higher when markets opened on Sunday afternoon, October 26 (blue ellipse), and both indices reached new record highs on Monday through Thursday that week, but registered their lowest close […]
November 1, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for November 1, 2025
Sell the news? Leading global stock indices were at or near all-time highs this week, as Trump’s Asian tour reduced trade tensions, the FOMC cut interest rates, and Big Tech’s quarterly reports, on balance, were positive. Oh, and NVDA briefly reached a $5 trillion market capitalization, which is more than twice the size of Canada’s national GDP. Despite all the positive news, Friday’s […]
October 25, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for October 25, 2025
Gold prices corrected this week after closing higher for nine consecutive weeks, with prices up over $1,000 (~31%) from the August lows. Gold rallied above $2,000 for the first time in August 2020 (blue ellipse) as governments and central banks reacted to covid, and as the US 10-year bond yield fell to a historic low of […]
October 11, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for October 11, 2025
Leading global equity indices (and other risk assets) tumble on a sharp rise in US/China trade tensions China’s announcement of comprehensive restrictions on rare earth exports on Thursday had little impact on equity markets (but gold and silver tumbled). However, Trump’s aggressive social media response on Friday morning sparked a relentless day-long decline across equity markets. Trump […]
October 4, 2025 | The Trading Desk Notes for October 4, 2025
Leading global stock indices surge to record highs The S&P has rallied ~40% from its April lows, up ~13.5% YTD. The S&P is up ~5.5% since the FOMC cut rates on August 22 (blue ellipse), and signalled more cuts to come over the next few months. Big Cap Tech/AI continues to power the rally in US stocks, […]
September 27, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for September 27, 2025
Buy The Dip has worked like a charm for years. Is it still a good idea? The S&P has rallied ~40% from its low in April and reached another all-time high this week. It’s up ~92% from the October 2022 lows, and more than 200% from the 2020 lows. It’s up 10X from the 2009 lows. Can […]
September 21, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for September 20, 2025
Keep dancing until the music stops The S&P 500 Index closed the week at 6664, a new record high, up 10X from the March 2009 lows of 666, and up ~38% from the April lows. The rally in global stock indices is impressive as capital flows into equity markets everywhere. China is experiencing deflation, as […]
September 13, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for September 13, 2025
The highest conviction trade in the world The highest conviction trade in the world is that the Fed will cut short-term rates by 25 basis points next week as it begins an easing cycle that will take interest rates down ~100 basis points by early 2026, and perhaps by ~150 basis points by late 2026. The […]
September 7, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for September 7, 2025
The summer doldrums are over – tensions and volatility surge, creating great trading opportunities! Gold is at record highs, in nominal and inflation-adjusted terms. Comex gold futures are up ~38% YTD, up~100% from the October 2023 lows (blue ellipse) made just before the Hamas attack on Israel. A weaker USD (down ~12% YTD to 3-year lows) […]
August 30, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for August 30, 2025
The times they are a-changin’ August feels like the lull before the storm that strikes once we get past Labour Day. The meandering price action and low volatility we’ve seen may be replaced by strong directional moves and increased volatility. September is historically the worst month of the year for the stock market. The leading American […]
August 23, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for August 23, 2025
Powell was more dovish than expected at Jackson Hole Powell’s speech on Friday morning was the most anticipated financial event of the week. Following the hotter-than-expected PPI report last week (which may have foreshadowed higher tariff-induced inflation ahead), markets were positioned for Powell to maintain his inflation hawk role. Following the August 14 PPI report (blue […]
August 16, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for August 16, 2025
Quote of the week “Mood is now more important than earnings to the stock market.” Alyosha, Market Vibes, on Substack. The bullish mood is driving global stock indices to record highs. Long live FOMO, TINA, and YOLO. The S&P is up ~35% from the April lows, the NAZ is up ~45%, the TSE is up ~27%, […]
August 9, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for August 9, 2025
Creative destruction: move fast and break things This week was short on scheduled market-moving economic data (setting aside the poorly bid bond auctions), but Trump (God bless’em) kept things lively. Trump imposed a 39% tariff on Switzerland and a 50% rate on India (if they don’t stop buying Russian crude oil). Additionally, he imposed a 100% […]
August 2, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for August 2, 2025
The S&P closed at record highs last week, but fell to 1-month lows this week The September S&P futures closed at record highs last week, traded higher on Monday, fell off ~100 points to Wednesday’s lows, but gapped higher after the close on strong MSFT and META reports. The market opened higher on Thursday, but couldn’t […]
July 26, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for July 26, 2025
Markets are not expecting RISK! The leading global equity indices are at or near all-time highs. The S&P is up ~33% from the April lows, the NAZ is up ~42%. (NVDA is up >100%.) (Open interest in the S&P futures market fell to an 18-year low this week. Perhaps because one S&P futures contract is now […]