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April 26, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for April 26, 2025
Markets hit “peak uncertainty” on Monday and then reversed dramatically! The US Dollar, bonds and stock markets closed near their lows on Monday, while gold closed at all-time highs. Volatility metrics were high, and it was beginning to look like the existential risks surrounding the recent “Sell America” sentiment were producing a “capital flight” away […]
April 19, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for April 19, 2025
The Bull in the china shop = uncertainty, volatility & capital flight The US Dollar Index has fallen ~10% since Inauguration Day (blue ellipse) to the lowest level in nearly three years. Gold has rallied ~$600 (~22%) since Inauguration Day to all-time highs. The Gold Monitor: Gold is surging as the US Dollar falls.. The S&P is […]
April 12, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for April 12, 2025
Fear trumps greed, but volatility is mean-reverting The cash S&P hit 15-month lows on Monday, down ~21% from February’s all-time highs. It then rallied ~13% to Wednesday’s highs as Trump paused tariffs on most countries other than China, where he dramatically increased tariffs. Last week’s big drop and this week’s big gain were among the most […]
April 5, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for April 5, 2025
Slowly at first, and then suddenly The cash S&P 500 index closed Friday ~9% below last Friday’s close, with virtually all of those losses coming after Trump’s Liberation Day ceremony. The index is down ~17.5% from mid-February’s record highs, and outside of the covid crash in 2020, the two-day performance on Thursday/Friday was the worst since the […]
March 29, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for March 29, 2025
The S&P: lowest weekly close in seven months The S&P tumbled ~660 points (~11%) from its all-time highs in mid-February to the March 13 lows (pink ellipse), bounced ~275 points (~5%) to this week’s highs, but then dropped ~235 points (~4%) to this week’s close—the lowest weekly close since September 6, 2024 (blue ellipse.) Many analysts […]
March 22, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for March 22, 2025
Gold hit new highs again this week, up ~$1,000 from year-ago levels Front-month COMEX gold futures rallied to ~$3,065 this week, up over $400 (~15%) from the January 2025 lows, up ~$1,260 (~70%) from the pre-Hamas attack on Israel lows in October 2023 (blue ellipse) and up ~$1,450 (~90%) from the October 2022 lows (pink ellipse.) […]
March 15, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for March 15, 2025
Current positioning: I’m long S&P futures as of Friday morning. See My short-term trading section below for more detail. The S&P closed Red for four consecutive weeks The S&P hit all-time highs on July 16, 2024 (the first ellipse), then tumbled ~10% to August 5 lows on the “Yen-carry” scare. The market recovered, traded above the July […]
March 8, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for March 8, 2025
Current positioning: On Friday, March 7, I bought the S&P and shorted the Yen, Gold and T-Note calls. I held those positions into the weekend. See the short-term trading section below for more detail. A weaker US Dollar and a weaker US stock market The S&P (my favourite risk barometer) closed lower for three consecutive weeks, […]
March 1, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for March 1, 2025
Current positioning: My short-term trading account began this week long TNotes and Yen, short the S&P. I covered the Notes and S&P for good gains mid-week and was stopped for a slight loss on the Yen. I bought the S&P on Friday and held that into the weekend. Equities The S&P touched all-time highs on February 19 (blue […]
February 22, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for February 22, 2025
Current positioning: My short-term trading account is short the S&P, long T-Notes, and long Yen. S&P futures traded at record highs on Wednesday but fell ~2.25% to Friday’s lows Friday’s break was the most significant drop since December 18, when the Fed cut 25 bps but hinted it was unlikely to cut again soon. Since […]
February 17, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for February 17, 2025
Back in the saddle again An apology: I have been unable to post the Trading Desk Notes for the past two days due to a frustrating firewall problem. I’m grateful that my tech guys were able to fix it, but it serves as a reminder that things can go haywire in our digital world! […]
February 1, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for February 1, 2025
THIS IS NOT A DRILL It was a hectic week in the markets, but two events were especially significant: 1) The spot S&P traded to all-time highs last Friday, January 25, but the S&P futures gapped lower Sunday afternoon and fell hard early Monday on the DeepSeek story (blue ellipse) and 2) The S&P rallied all week from […]
January 11, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for January 11, 2025
Rising bond yields are weighing on the stock market but have boosted the US dollar 30-year Treasury yields hit a 15-month high of 5% following Friday’s stronger-than-expected employment report. Since September 2024, the Fed has cut short rates by 100 bps, but bond yields have risen ~100 bps on concerns that continuing government deficit spending will sustain […]
January 4, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for January 4, 2025
Will the stock market’s “Trump Bump” be sustained? The S&P sold off ahead of the November 5th election, rallied on election day (circle on the chart), gapped sharply higher the day after the election, and then rallied to record highs in early December. The market drifted sideways near all-time highs for ten trading sessions in early December […]
December 21, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for December 21, 2024
Animal Spirits experience an Icarus Moment as the adrenaline rush from Trump’s election victory fades. The NAZ rallied ~28% from early August lows to this week’s all-time highs, with nearly half the gains made since Trump’s election victory (circled.) The NAZ was up ~60% from October 2023 and was “by far” the best-performing stock index over […]
December 14, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for December 14, 2024
What would a turning point in Irrational Exuberance look like? Well, for a start: Some analysts say that retail is the most bullish ever. I don’t know how you measure that, but yeah, it feels that way, and retail is gambling on all kinds of crap – exchange-listed or otherwise. The COT data as of […]
December 7, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for December 7, 2024
Tech stocks led the indices higher this week. AAPL hit new record highs, up ~11% in a month and ~50% in eight months. TSLA had another good week, up ~56% since the election and 2.8X in the last eight months. AMZN is at record highs, up ~15% since the election and ~50% in the last four […]
November 30, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for November 30, 2024
Trump shocks markets: he will hit Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs on ALL exports On Monday afternoon, November 25, Trump announced that on his first day as President, he would levy 25% tariffs on ALL imports from Canada and Mexico – if they did not halt the flow of illegal migrants and dangerous drugs into the […]
November 23, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for November 23, 2024
American exceptionalism: US stocks have hugely outperformed the rest of the world. The S&P is up ~46% from its October 2023 lows. It jumped ~5% during election week, the biggest weekly gain YTD, corrected a bit last week and rallied again this week. The NAZ is up ~51% from October 2023 lows. The NAZ has […]
November 16, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for November 16, 2024
Stock indices, interest rates, and the USD rose sharply last week following Trump’s victory. This week, stock indices fell, interest rates rose, and the USD soared to 12-month highs. NAZ futures hit record highs during the Sunday overnight session, up ~6.5% from election-day (circled) lows, but gave back ~63% of those gains by Friday’s close. SOXX […]
November 9, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for November 9, 2024
US stock indices soared on Trump’s victory—the DJIA, S&P, and NAZ rallied to new record highs this week. The S&P and the DJIA hit record highs in mid-October but then trended lower into month-end, perhaps de-risking ahead of the election. On election day (ellipse), the indices were bid aggressively from the opening bell, soared in the […]
November 2, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for November 2, 2024
Bond yields have risen sharply since the Fed cut short rates on September 18. When the Fed cut rates in September, the 10-year yield was ~3.6%, an 18-month low. It was ~80 bps higher at 4.4% at Friday’s close. In October 2023, the yield was ~5%, a 16-year high. In this daily chart of the 10-year […]
October 26, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for October 26, 2024
US interest rates have surged higher since September 18, when the Fed cut short rates by 50 bps. US 2-year yields were near a 22-month low of ~3.63% on September 18 but closed this week at ~4.12%. In this chart of 2-year Treasury futures, the blue ellipse is September 18, and the black ellipse is October […]
October 12, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for October 12, 2024
The leading North American stock indices are at record highs The S&P has closed higher for 9 of the last 10 weeks, rising ~14% from its early August lows. The index is up ~22% YTD, ~41% from year-ago lows, and ~65% from two year-ago lows. It has closed higher for 11 of the last 12 […]
September 28, 2024 | The Trading Desk Notes for September 28, 2024
Traders are more interested in the market’s reaction to news than the news itself. This week’s news flow felt like a tsunami after the dog days of summer, but for the markets I trade, the big news was the monetary and fiscal stimulus in China, the acceleration of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, and the shift in […]