ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
March 30, 2025 | ‘Golden Era’ Could Face a Deep Valley First
Here’s some cold water on the notion that Trump’s radical trade policies could help bring about an economic golden era. I’d written here last week that punitive tariffs might be the only medicine strong enough to jolt the world into doing honest business. Foreign manufacturers would leap to relocate their plants to the U.S. in […]
March 30, 2025 | The Danger of Traveling with Gold
Two men were pulled over while driving on I-20 in Texas, carrying $250,000 worth of gold bars. US law permits and encourages law enforcement to confiscate assets. Civil asset forfeiture enables the government to simply seize assets and declare that the owner is guilty of money laundering before any due process occurs. “We have […]
March 29, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for March 29, 2025
The S&P: lowest weekly close in seven months The S&P tumbled ~660 points (~11%) from its all-time highs in mid-February to the March 13 lows (pink ellipse), bounced ~275 points (~5%) to this week’s highs, but then dropped ~235 points (~4%) to this week’s close—the lowest weekly close since September 6, 2024 (blue ellipse.) Many analysts […]
March 29, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday March 29th 2025
The Bottom Line Focus next week is on imposition of a 25% tariffs on goods imported into the United States to be announced officially by President Trump on Wednesday April 2nd. Growing political uncertainty related to the tariffs and likely counter tariffs were a major reason for weakness in North American equity indices last week. […]
March 28, 2025 | Trump Tariff War Risks Causing a Recession
President Donald J. Trump surprised the world again Wednesday with new tariffs on automobiles and auto parts. This appears to be in addition to tariffs announced previously and shocked automakers like GM and Ford who make a significant number of vehicles in Mexico and Canada. Is Trump determined to push the U.S. into a recession? […]
March 28, 2025 | The Golden Visa Program Begins
President Trump established the Golden Visa program to attract wealthy immigrants. The program will replace the EB-5 visa program, created in 1990, as a route to American citizenship for those willing to invest $1 million in an American company. Updated criteria now require a $5 million investment for fast-tracked citizenship, and the program has proved to be […]
March 27, 2025 | Canada’s Provincial Trade Barriers
Several readers were surprised to hear that Canada imposes provincial “tariffs” or trade barriers that simply act as tariffs. Canadian politicians have been promoting a marketing campaign against US-imposed tariffs, but must recognize that their own domestic policy is hurting the Canadian economy in a massive way. Canada’s tariff rate on international imports averages 1.4%, […]
March 26, 2025 | US 25% Tariff On Venezuelan Oil Lifts WTI To US$70/b.
President Trump is on the warpath against Venezuela and Iran. Regarding Venezuela he introduced a 25% tariff on any country buying its oil and on that country’s goods sold in the US, if they buy crude from the country after April 2nd. For China with a current tariff of 20% this goes up to 45% if not […]
March 26, 2025 | DDB Macro Update
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Jeremy Szafron of Kitco News to discuss why the U.S. may already be in a private-sector recession. From rising layoffs and corporate bankruptcies to tightening credit and collapsing consumer demand, DiMartino Booth reveals the economic cracks the mainstream continues to miss. Here is a direct […]
March 26, 2025 | The Kallas Plan – Destroy Russia AND Europe
The European External Action Service is intended to ensure diplomacy and peace throughout Europe, but the new head, Kaja Kallas, has been promoting the opposite. “[T]he European Union wants Ukraine to win this war” against Russia, Kallas tweeted out. Her response prompted ten European diplomats to speak out. “She (Kallas) is still acting like a prime […]
March 25, 2025 | TD: Canadian Recession in 2025
TD Economics’ latest Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast largely comports with our assessment of an incoming Canadian recession. The wildcard is how much government support can soften the depth of the downturn and contain job losses. TD has a hopeful view. Here are the main takeaways: Canada has borne the brunt of President Trump’s tariff action despite having […]
March 25, 2025 | American CFOs Believe Tariffs Will Cause Recession – Confidence is Dying
American businesses are losing confidence in the US economy under Trump due to the tariff wars. CNBC’s CFO Council quarterly survey for Q1 2025 learned that America’s top CFOs are increasingly pessimistic about the economy due to these “disruptive” and “aggressive” tariff policies. Around 60% of respondents believe the US will fall into a […]
March 24, 2025 | Is Carney Going to Put the Final Nail in the Coffin for Canada?
COMMENT: Martin, I am extremely concerned about what is going on in Canada. Max Carnage has called an election in 30days! Elections Canada now needs to find an estimated 285,000 temporary workers. What could possibly go wrong? This is completely insane for what will be arguably the most import election in Canadian History! So many […]
March 24, 2025 | Recession Watch: Cratering Condos and Creeped-Out Consumers
Most of the following charts are from Wolf Street or the Kobeissi letter. Definitely follow those guys. Cratering Condos There’s no way to overstate how crazy US home prices have become. To take just one metric, the median US household income is $79,200, but it takes an annual income of $124,200 to buy the average American house. That’s […]
March 24, 2025 | Wilful Blindness Tends To Be Financially Destructive, In The End
For decades, my mission has been to help individuals with finite lifespans make unvarnished, clear-eyed financial assessments and plans that will serve them well through complete market cycles. Fortunately, we have attracted a strong base of clients who value the approach. But we’re far from mainstream. I am regularly asked to review the portfolios/asset allocations […]
March 24, 2025 | Heading to the Polls
Happy Monday Morning! It’s official, Canadians are heading to the polls on April 28th. Interim PM, Mark Carney has triggered an election, in what will surely be one of the most consequential elections in recent history. The country is caught between a rock and a hard place, fighting multiple battles on different fronts. Not only […]
March 23, 2025 | $3,000 Gold = Gold Miner Acquisition Binge
Gold hit $3,000/oz last week. I’ve been waiting a long time to write that sentence! Now get ready for a torrent of gold miner cash flow to ignite a takeover boom. Mining analyst Marin Katusa just posted some thoughts on what this means. Here’s an excerpt: Gold Miners, the New Margin Monsters Most gold mines have costs […]
March 23, 2025 | The Unvaxed
COMMENT: Marty, Cheer up. They are coming for you! Gene REPLY: Well, I can’t outrun that many. Hopefully, one is interested in financial markets. Then maybe. When I went to a new doctor, she asked if I was vaccinated, and I said, “NO!” She replied, “Good!“ She worked last at the VA and quit over government policy.
March 23, 2025 | The Inflationista Illuminati, Part 2
The theme among so many writers seems to be “vibe shift.” And indeed, there is a concern the economy is slowing and may even be in a recession. That is certainly what today’s writer and my friend, Danielle DiMartino Booth, points to in this second part of her data-driven inflation analysis, which I share below. […]
March 23, 2025 | Are New Highs Coming? Here’s How to Tell…
The Trump wild card has made it especially difficult to bet on the stock market. Even cynics can’t say for sure that his radical agenda will not eventually produce an economic golden era capable of pushing the Dow average to 100,000 or higher. In just two short months, the president has crushed wokeness and racial […]
March 22, 2025 | Mt Spurr Alaska – Activity Rising
COMMENT: Marty, Here in Alaska, we have been put on alert that Mt Spurr may erupt soon. Your computer has been remarkable projecting these trend of rising volcanic activity here in 2025 and we are still in the first quarter. Do you have any historical analysis of Mt. Spurr? Rob REPLY: Mount Spurr, a stratovolcano […]
March 22, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for March 22, 2025
Gold hit new highs again this week, up ~$1,000 from year-ago levels Front-month COMEX gold futures rallied to ~$3,065 this week, up over $400 (~15%) from the January 2025 lows, up ~$1,260 (~70%) from the pre-Hamas attack on Israel lows in October 2023 (blue ellipse) and up ~$1,450 (~90%) from the October 2022 lows (pink ellipse.) […]
March 22, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday March 22nd 2025
The Bottom Line Equity indices in Canada and the U.S. are following their traditional seasonal patterns: an intermediate term bottom near mid-March followed by a Spring rally. Historically, U.S. equity indices have moved higher until the first week in May and the TSX Composite has moved higher until the first week in June.
March 21, 2025 | Chinese Automaker BYD is Taking Over Tesla
Chinese automaker BYD is flooding the world outside of North America with new, inexpensive models both hybrid and all-electric. And the latest announcement from BYD of an all-electric vehicle that can add 400 kilometers of range in five minutes is sending shock waves throughout the automotive world. Will these new models allow BYD to take […]
March 21, 2025 | Is Silver Being Suppressed?
Bubble Bubble Report’s Jesse Colombo just weighed in on the “Why isn’t silver $100!?” debate with a compelling case for manipulation. Here’s an excerpt: The mechanics of silver price suppression Many precious metals investors have heard about silver manipulation or suspected it, but few fully understand how it works or can clearly explain it. Many also […]