ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
August 27, 2024 | Inflation Chronicles: The Aristocracy Decrees That Peasants Will Sleep In Parking Lots
I have a dog who wakes up with the sun and immediately wants a nice long hike. Over the years, he’s trained me to accept his schedule, so at the crack of dawn we drive to one of a dozen or so nearby trails that he counts as his territory. One of our regular hikes […]
August 27, 2024 | Is this the Peak?
The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose to another record high in June. Is this the peak for US national home prices? Not yet – which is why I put the “Bull” back in the box on Page 10 of my July 2024 Timing Letter. Be patient folks. The bear is coming.
August 26, 2024 | Just a Hunch
Happy Monday Morning! For an overly indebted Canadian household sector grappling with rising interest payments, there was a lot to be pleased with this week. Canada’s CPI inflation came in at a breezy 2.5% in July. The deceleration was broad-based and marked the seventh consecutive month of headline rates running within the central bank’s target […]
August 26, 2024 | Pavel Durov Arrested by France To Kill Telegram
We are headed into 2032, and every day that passes brings another step closer to revealing what I have warned about: this last 8.6-year wave will become the most authoritarian as the government realizes it is losing control. The latest was to arrest Pavel Durov because he created Telegram, which is free speech, with […]
August 25, 2024 | Unemployment, Inflation and The Fed’s Choice
There was an historically large revision to the unemployment data this week, which was even worse than the headline when you dig into the actual numbers. On top of that, there is some “behind the numbers” data on inflation, which is typically not talked about, that will have a big impact on the Fed decision, […]
August 25, 2024 | Have the Democrats Reversed the American Dream?
Before the evolution of the Industrial Revolution, Social Mobility truly did not exist. More often, one tended to follow in the footsteps of their family. Farmers remained on the farm just as those in the various skilled trades remained in those guilds. This tended to be true even from ancient times before Rome became […]
August 24, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for August 24, 2024
Powell says the time has come to begin cutting interest rates Markets were expecting Powell to announce that it was “time” to start cutting rates (to lessen the downside risks to employment – the other leg of the Fed’s dual mandate), but the “unequivocally dovish” tone of his Jackson Hole announcement surprised markets. Small caps […]
August 24, 2024 | ‘Easy Money’ Boom to Bust
The same ‘easy money’ policies that enabled excessive spending and mal-investment in real estate fuelled a boom and bust now unfolding in the venture capital and start-up space, as well. This has broader implications for asset prices, lenders, investment, jobs and the economy at large. See, Start-up failures rise 60% as founders face hangover from the […]
August 24, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 24th 2024
The Bottom Line Responses to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole comments triggered significant buying in North American equity markets on Friday. According to Powell, “The time has come to adjust our restrictive monetary policy”. His comments implied that the FOMC likely will start to lower its Fed Fund Rate at its next meeting on […]
August 23, 2024 | RFK Endorses Trump & Will Join His Cabinet
COMMENT: Congratulations. You are the only one who has been pushing this for months. What position will he take in Trump’s Cabinet? FK ANSWER: I want to thank everyone for all of their support. I may have been the first behind this issue. But this is not merely because I said so. RFK was only 6 […]
August 23, 2024 | About That: Record Developer Insolvencies in Canada
Over the last year, more than 200 real estate developments in Canada became insolvent. Andrew Chang explains why, at a time of high demand for housing, a growing number of projects are falling through. Here is a direct video link.
August 23, 2024 | A Trump or Harris Win Could Lead To Very Different Outcomes
The U.S. election is less than 80 days away. The race is a dead heat, but only one of them will win and the impact on markets and the economy may be very different depending on who wins control of the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate. Will a Trump or Harris […]
August 22, 2024 | Trump Explains Why the Establishment HATES Him
@dudetv Theo Von had donald Trump on his podcast #theovon #foryou #foryoupage #trump #funny ♬ original sound – DUDE ✓ We already know why the establishment hates Donald J. Trump. Socrates predicted a third party candidate would win the 2016 US Presidential Election. A Democrat turned Republican, Trump does not stand with either party as […]
August 22, 2024 | Toronto Condos Aren’t Selling
Mortgage rates are historically average today, but too high prices and insufficient household income levels remain a problem. Welcome to a buyer’s market without buyers. Condo sales in the GTA are down, according to the latest data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, but the number of condos on the market is up. With […]
August 22, 2024 | Inflation in One Lesson
The high cost of living is the #1 financial problem for Americans today – and Milton Friedman’s explanation for inflation is probably close to the mark. In this 39 second video, Friedman claims that too much government spending and too much govt money creation is what causes inflation. “Consumers don’t produce inflation. Producers don’t produce […]
August 21, 2024 | A World Priced In Gold
Pretend, for a moment, that it’s 1971 and you’re President Richard Nixon (admittedly disturbing fantasies, but bear with me). You face the perennial government income/outflow dilemmas, and other countries, noting your struggle, are trying to cash their dollars in for your limited pile of gold bars. But this time around you don’t cave and “close […]
August 21, 2024 | Extreme Over-Valuations Suggest Years of Negative Returns
At 35x the average of the past decade’s earnings, adjusted for inflation, the S&P 500 basket of stocks is the third most expensive since 1871 (CAPE, in blue below, versus long-term interest rates in red, courtesy of Shillerdata.com). It is pricier than at the 1929 secular peak and more than twice the long-term median of 16x […]
August 21, 2024 | The Propaganda Behind Crypto
Now all we hear is how banks are suddenly investing in things like BITCOIN. The propaganda is just stunning, for it has once again proven that Julius Caesar was right more than 2000 years ago, and nothing has ever changed. Things like BITCOIN are a religion, and that is the problem. It would be […]
August 20, 2024 | Where You Store It: Don’t Trust, and Definitely Verify
When negotiating with the Soviet Union, Ronald Reagan’s oft-repeated slogan was “Trust, but verify.” Something similar applies to the world of precious metals, especially remote storage firms. But let’s go even further to: Don’t trust, and always verify. Here’s an example of why: A San Diego couple thought they’d invested in gold. Instead, they and hundreds of others […]
August 20, 2024 | Lucid Motors CTO Rawlinson on the Evolution of Electric Vehicles
Bloomberg Radio host Barry Ritholtz speaks to Peter Rawlinson, chief executive officer, chief technology officer and member of the board of directors at Lucid Motors Inc., where he is responsible for the company’s strategy and execution, as well as the creation and delivery of all Lucid products. Before Lucid, Peter was vice president of vehicle […]
August 19, 2024 | Kamala’s Economic Plan Will Destroy the US Economy & Lead to Food Shortages
Kamala Harris’ father was basically a radial communist. She is not far from her father’s ideas, any more than Bill Gates is different from his father’s fears of population when he created Planned Parenthood and stuck them in minority areas to reduce the population of blacks. No matter how many times Socialism has […]
August 19, 2024 | Keeping the Lights On
Happy Monday Morning! Big news on the housing supply front. Housing starts surprisingly rose to the highest level in more than a year. Construction was started on an annualized 279,509 units in July, according to CMHC. That’s the highest level since June 2023, and exceeded the 245,000 units expected by economists. Downturn? What downturn? Source: […]
August 18, 2024 | A Head Fake, Maybe
In basketball and other sports, a “head fake” means the player moves their head as if they are about to turn left or right, but then doesn’t do so. This can fool an opposing player into moving the wrong way. Head fake is a trading term, too. Some bit of information convinces investors a market […]
August 18, 2024 | Is Copper a Broken Story — Or Better Than Ever?
After a nice run in the first half of this year, copper suffered a serious correction, leading some to wonder if this story is broken: A recent post by commodities analyst Rick Mills answers that question. Here’s an excerpt from the (much longer) article: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) forecasts global copper consumption to grow 3.5% to 28 million […]
August 18, 2024 | Time for a Holiday…
[I’m taking a summer break, so this will be my last commentary until after Labor Day. It will be the usual busman’s holiday for me, however, and actionable ‘touts’ for popular symbols will be updated ‘round-the-clock as always. Some recommendations will be accessible to non-paying subscribers, so be sure to check the home page regularly, especially if […]