ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
July 30, 2024 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, July 2024 Update. Below 2022 Peak: San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, Portland, Denver, Dallas, Las Vegas. New Highs: Miami, Los Angeles, San Diego…
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, released today for “May,” are three-month moving averages of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas whose sales were entered into public records in March, April, and May. So that’s the time frame. Over this period, home prices in all 20 metros increased from the prior month, in most […]
July 30, 2024 | Central Banks Easing into a Recession
David Rosenberg, founder and president at Rosenberg Research, and Ed Devlin, founder of Devlin Capital, senior fellow at C.D. Howe Institute. and former head of Canadian portfolio management at PIMCO, join BNN Bloomberg to share their outlook on the economy and the markets. Here is a direct video link.
July 29, 2024 | “Well Hello Mr. Coyote”
My two beagles and I were in a coastal canyon this morning, and a coyote started following us. A man has a duty to protect his wife and family, so I yelled to try to scare him away. That didn’t work. The coyote kept following us. So I tried Plan B I […]
July 29, 2024 | De-Dollarization Update: October Surprise?
The next BRICS meeting is scheduled for October, in Russia. In the meantime, a lot is happening on the de-dollarization front. Some recent news: NATO just took Russian assets and gave them to Ukraine: Not surprisingly… Russia says it’s working with a group of countries to build a platform that doesn’t need the dollar (Business Insider) […]
July 29, 2024 | Cash Flow Problems
Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada slashed rates another 25bps this past week. It was a dovish press conference, with Tiff emphasizing excess supply in the economy. In the words of the BoC, economic growth likely picked up to about 1.5% through the first half of this year. However, with robust population […]
July 29, 2024 | Danielle on The Jay Martin Show
In this episode of The Jay Martin Show, host Jay Martin sits down with Danielle Park of Venable Park Investment Counsel to explore the current state of the Canadian real estate and bond markets. Danielle provides in-depth insights into how negative yields have driven the Canadian home price bubble, the lagging effects of recent rate […]
July 29, 2024 | DEI the Hidden “REAL” Global Agenda
COMMENT: It’s akin to a multi-billion marketing campaign I have family in UK, Sydney, and Galway, Ireland All are getting “diversity” pushed. It’s like a weapon now to prevent unity, common heritage against govt I made these for friends. The end game of diversity? There will be OLYMPIC teams in 30 years! RL REPLY: […]
July 28, 2024 | From the Archives: How to Short Stocks – Is it finally time??
First, the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) were going to rise forever. Then they morphed into the “Magnificent 7” which many believe will ride the AI boom to infinity and beyond. Either way, the result is a wildly unbalanced market (and economy) supported by a tiny group of multi-trillion-dollar companies. We’ve seen […]
July 28, 2024 | A Sticky Last Mile
“Alice laughed. ‘There’s no use trying,’ she said. ‘One can’t believe impossible things.’” “’I daresay you haven’t had much practice,’ said the Queen. ‘When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.’” ―Lewis Carroll This week we find our […]
July 28, 2024 | Time for a Holiday…
[I’m taking a summer break, so this will be my last commentary until after Labor Day. It will be the usual busman’s holiday, however, and actionable ‘touts’ for popular symbols will be updated ‘round-the-clock as always. Some recommendations will be accessible to non-paying subscribers, so be sure to check the home page regularly, especially if stocks go […]
July 28, 2024 | The Trust in Government is Collapsing – Is Anything Real Anymore?
As we head into the end of this cycle in 2032, this process concerns the collapse of Republican forms of government that is rapidly approaching on a global scale. I believe that this has become far more obvious since the COVID-19 scam. Even in Germany, friends think that something has seriously changed. We are dealing […]
July 27, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for July 27, 2024
Reversion to the mean continues across key markets Big-cap tech stocks fuelled a ~50% rally in the NAZ (~39% in the S&P) from October to July; their recent weakness contributed to the NAZ falling ~10% (S&P ~5%) from record highs. The MAG7 market cap is down ~$2 trillion (~12%) since July 10. The Russell 2000 […]
July 27, 2024 | Recession Watch: The Un-Inverted Yield Curve and Plunging Copper
Headline economic stats like GDP continue to look pretty good. But the list of reliable indicators screaming “imminent recession” continues to expand. Some of the latest: Un-Inverted Yield Curve An inverted yield curve (where short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates) is a well-known recession signal. But it really starts flashing when it un-inverts, i.e., when long-term […]
July 27, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 27th 2024
The Bottom Line Focus this week is on the FOMC announcement on the Fed Fund Rate at 2:00 PM EDT Wednesday. Quarterly earnings reports released to date for the most part have been positive. Focuses this week are on reports by Amazon and Apple on Thursday. Seasonal influences during a U.S. Presidential Election year historically […]
July 26, 2024 | June Home Sales Drop in Line with ECM
I noted that real estate in the United States would turn into a buyer’s market in May 2024 going into August 2028 in a reversal from the buyer’s market we’ve experienced since 2020. The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators […]
July 26, 2024 | A Worried Bank of Canada is Cutting Interest Rates
Central bankers in Canada went out on a limb by cutting a key interest rate this week. The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark rate for the second time, by 0.25 percent to make a full ½ point reduction this year. The most powerful central bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve, has yet to make its […]
July 26, 2024 | Large Upward Revisions of “Core Services” PCE Inflation Pushed Six-Month “Core” PCE Inflation to 3.4%, Worst in a Year
The revisions, the upward revisions, oh-la-la! The Bureau of Economic Analysis released today the PCE price index for June; and as part of it, the “core” PCE price index – the Fed’s primary yardstick for inflation – was revised substantially higher for May, driven by a large upward revision of the “core services” PCE price […]
July 25, 2024 | WTI Falls >US$4/b Over The Last Week To US$77.30/b On Weakening China Demand
The ending of President Biden’s candidacy for a second four year term has emboldened the Democrats that they could win the Presidency and end the worry of a clean sweep (Presidency, House and Senate) by the Trumpers. By endorsing Kamala Harris, Biden passes the torch to his VP and ensures that the campaign funds raised […]
July 25, 2024 | It’s a Recession Not a Depression
The government insists that the economy is fine, thriving perhaps, and has asked the public to pay no mind to their current financial situation. No one, aside from those living off government assistance, are better off now than they were four years ago. Americans cannot be gas lit into believing the economy is sound […]
July 24, 2024 | Who Really Controls Your Access to Politicians? The SWAMP!
QUESTION: Marty, I watched Rep. Anna Paulina Luna interrogating the questionable Secret Service Director Cheatle. Paulina accused her of perjury. She says that Garland probably told her to stonewall. Paulina is your representative. Why has she not asked the Inspector General to investigate your case with all the evidence you presented in the Plot to […]
July 24, 2024 | Hoisington Q2 Review and Outlook
Hoisington’s Q2 Review and Outlook is now available; see Monetary and Fiscal Extremes. One of several standout charts shows the US Net National Savings Rate since 1929, negative in 2024 for only the second time ever, as the federal budget deficit (dissaving) exceeds the total of household, corporate and foreign savings. Hoisington notes that, as in […]
July 24, 2024 | Housing Is Seriously Rolling Over
Let’s start with the fact that the average American can’t afford the average house. Not even close: Houses have been unaffordable for a while, but for a while, “investors” — i.e., private equity companies with access to cheap credit — took up the slack, sometimes buying entire neighborhoods and converting the houses to rentals. Now […]
July 23, 2024 | US Banks Experiencing Rising Unrecoverable Debt
I’ve long been sounding the alarm on the private debt crisis sweeping the Build Back Better nations. US government debt equaled 122.3% of the nation’s GDP in 2023, a cost that will be passed on to the taxpayers. As of Q1 2024, US household debt stood at $1.77 trillion; $12.44 trillion held in mortgage […]
July 23, 2024 | Early Sign of a Downturn in CA Home Prices
Everybody knows where we’ve been. Let’s see where we are going. History shows that extremely low housing affordability in CA tends to precede market downturns, as occurred in 1980, 1989, and as shown below, 2006. I see no reason why this time will be any different. But Fear Not, Fellow Investors In […]
July 23, 2024 | Canada’s Economy Feels Like a Recession
Canada’s June unemployment rate of 6.4% was up 160 basis points from the cycle low of 4.8% in June 2022. Since the 1970s (as shown below courtesy of RBC), Canada has never had this trough-to-peak rise in the unemployment rate without the economy going through a recession (blue bars). The increase following the 2000-03 dotcom […]