ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
September 16, 2024 | Connecting the Dots
Happy Monday Morning! Today we’re going to play a game of connect the dots. As we already know, the resale condo market is weak, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto. Rates went up a lot, basically destroying the math behind owning rental properties in these two cities. Condo investors are suddenly faced with rising mortgage payments, […]
September 16, 2024 | Koo: China’s Balance Sheet Recession
Once real estate bubbles bust, prices typically fall for years, and paying down debt becomes the priority. In the process, slashing interest rates does not entice the hoped-for revival of borrowing, and it takes years to rebuild balance sheets. This is now underway in the world’s second-largest economy. Et tu, Canada? Richard Koo, senior adviser […]
September 15, 2024 | The ‘Wealth Effect’ Is a Delusion and a Fraud
The so-called ‘wealth effect’ is the Tulipmania of this era on steroids, creating untold sums of money from speculative spume. If materializing vast quantities of spendable cash is the goal, a revved-up wealth effect makes the Fed Open Market Committee look like a ladies’ luncheon club. Indeed, it can take long months or even years […]
September 15, 2024 | Finally, Gold/Silver Miners Outperform the Metals
Normally, when gold and silver are rising, it’s a good idea to buy the related mining stocks on the assumption that they’ll go up even more than the metals. That’s why mining stocks are frequently referred to as “leveraged plays on the price of the underlying commodity.” But for most of the current gold bull […]
September 15, 2024 | Migrants & Historical Plagues
COMMENT: I am an RN, and I travel around the country. All over the US, we started to see upticks in diseases the US hadn’t seen in decades when Obama brought the Somalians introducing polio, but that never made the news. Then, in the Western US, we have seen TB, AIDS, whooping cough, and […]
September 14, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for September 14, 2024
The S&P had its best week of the year this week; last week, it had its worst week in 18 months. Do you want to bet on next week? The S&P fell ~4% last week and bounced back ~4% this week. The S&P ended last week right on its lows. It rallied back on Monday […]
September 14, 2024 | IEA: Global Oil Demand “Slowing Sharply”
Global oil demand growth is “slowing sharply” as China’s economy cools, pushing prices to a three-year low, the International Energy Agency said. World consumption increased by 800,000 barrels a day in the first half of the year, barely a third of the expansion in the same period of 2023, the adviser to major economies said […]
September 14, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday September 14th 2024
The Bottom Line Focus this week is on the FOMC’s economic statement released on Wednesday at 2:00 PM EDT. Consensus calls for a 0.25% reduction in the Fed Fund Rate to 5.25%. Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies Source: www.factset.com A word of caution! Consensus for third quarter results calls for significantly […]
September 13, 2024 | China Property Meltdown
China continues to experience a significant collapse in its property sector, which is weighing heavily on Chinese families. Numerous attempts at stimulating the sector have failed. When will China’s property sector start to recover? There is a view suggesting that Beijing has lost control of the property market, which could be very damaging to the […]
September 13, 2024 | Chinese Bust Cycle is Contagious
From 2019 to 2022, rounds of “free” money courtesy of central banks and governments fuelled gullibility and blind risk-taking in many countries. The effects were particularly short-lived in China, the world’s second-largest economy, where consumer confidence has been moribund over the past three years (below since 2016). Hampered by relatively low household incomes and […]
September 12, 2024 | Biden’s Attempt to Restrain the Supreme Court Warns the End is Near
This partisan part-time political hack we call President Biden has had the blatant gall to call for term limits on Justices of the Supreme Court only because the Democrats want the Court to rule as they see fit – not according to the Constitution. In HARRIS v. McRAE, 448 U.S. 297 (1980), a pregnant woman […]
September 12, 2024 | Lacy Hunt Economic Update
Ted Oakley interviews Dr. Lacy Hunt regarding the U.S. economy, world economy, Federal Reserve, and interest rates. Here is a direct video link. Meanwhile, the effective corporate tax rate for large S&P 500 companies is at a multi-decade low of less than 20 percent (shown below since 1985). Sustainable?
September 11, 2024 | WTI Crude Oil BUY Signal Triggered. We Sent Out New Energy Stock BUY Ideas Yesterday
Today is remembrance day for 9/11, a clear day of infamy in US history. US political leaders (Democratic and Republican) will attend memorials at the three sites that were attacked. Good news there for bipartisan action on behalf of the nation. Last night’s mudslinging Presidential debate was not a heartwarming showing for either candidate, but […]
September 11, 2024 | Small Businesses Warn of Weak Outlook
The outlook for small business earnings has been contracting since 2019, retreating below the pandemic bottom in August, with no turnaround yet. The glaring outperformance of S&P 500 operating earnings (in light blue below) above small business earnings since 2023 (dark blue below since 1986) looks unsustainable even as a bullish consensus forecast continued divergence […]
September 11, 2024 | Kamala’s Phycological Warfare & Eating Cats & Dogs
COMMENT #3: Thank you for your interesting feedback on the debate; I was also very surprised at how well Kamala performed. She appeared calm and collected. Trump, on the contrary, did not come across as a resolute winner. I do not understand why he had to mention things such as immigrants feeding on […]
September 11, 2024 | The Florida State Sunshine Bank: How a State-Owned Bank Can Protect Free Speech
Fifteen years have passed since the Occupy Wall Street movement focused attention on the inequities and hazards of large Wall Street banks, particularly those risky banks with trillions of dollars in derivatives on their books. “Move your money” was the obvious response, but what could local governments do? Their bank accounts were too large for […]
September 11, 2024 | Chart Alert: Double Top Resistance Signals Potential for Sharp Decline
This is an important chart! The S&P chart reveals two critical outside reversal weeks down from the 5,700 level—the first ending July 19th and the second just last week, on September 6th. These consecutive reversals in such a short time frame have created a powerful double top resistance. After the July 19th reversal, we saw a retracement […]
September 10, 2024 | Matt Taibbi: Why Censorship Is Suddenly Fashionable
Matt Taibbi, superstar reporter who recently turned on his MSM former bosses, just published a cogent explanation for why it’s now trendy to favor the arrest of free-speech social media execs like Elon Musk and Telegram’s Pavel Durov. If you’d prefer to listen rather than read, scroll down to the audio version. Liberalism Removes its Mask Upper-class America […]
September 10, 2024 | Health & Fitness: All the Things That I Have Done
I believe that everyone, myself included, is responsible for everything in our lives – and that includes how healthy you are, how fit you are, and how you age. Everything thing you do – every thought you think – is within your control. So take control guys. Yup, I am living proof that if […]
September 9, 2024 | Stagflation Begins
Nine of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported a decline in economic activity in August, up five districts from the July Beige Book report. Our system has warned that we are entering a period of stagflation, where inflation remains high but GDP declines. Now, the Fed is reporting that two-thirds of the US economy is […]
September 9, 2024 | From the Archives: Martin Armstrong (Correctly) Predicts Chaos
Originally published on August 9, 2023, this post featured some extreme predictions from forecaster Martin Armstrong — many of which seem to be coming true. So, as we blunder into WW III while running one of the most bizarre and least trustworthy elections in American history, revisiting some of Armstrong’s thoughts seems appropriate. People We […]
September 9, 2024 | Jobs, Not Rates
Happy Monday Morning! The Bank of Canada slashed rates again, the third time in this rate cutting cycle, and more cuts are coming. Markets are pricing in another 50bps of rate cuts by year end. Will this be enough to resuscitate the housing market back to life? The Real Estate industry certainly wants to belive […]
September 9, 2024 | What’s Your Plan?
Last week, the two-year US Treasury bond yield (3.654%) closed below the ten-year yield (3.716%), making for a +.062% spread and the first upward-sloping curve for these yields since July 2022. The re-steepening of Treasury yield spreads after months of inversion has historically proven to be a reliable warning of economic contraction, accelerating unemployment, and […]
September 8, 2024 | The Time Has Come
I remember traveling as a young boy on long trips and asking my parents, “Are we there yet?” I was later punished for this annoying behavior by having my own children ask me the same question over and over. On a national scale, we have been asking the same of the Fed. Now I think […]
September 8, 2024 | Telegram Forced to Surrender
French authorities arrested Telegram CEO Pavel Durov last month for permitting encrypted messaging on his app that could not be accessed by governments. France claimed that Durov was permitting illegal activities to occur on Telegram. Public safety is always the ruse they employ to remove our freedoms. Unfortunately, Telegram has been forced to surrender and […]