ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
March 3, 2026 | Recession Watch: Is Private Credit The New Subprime Mortgage?
Oil has been one of the worst-performing commodities lately, due mostly to rising US production and relative peace in the Middle East. Well, that peace ended with a bang last weekend, and oil has erased its price declines. Higher gasoline prices are likely to follow. While oil was spiking, pretty much everything else tanked on […]
March 3, 2026 | Shocks are Part of life; Sentiment Coming into Them Matters
Macro shocks are a constant throughout time. The market impact is often dramatic in the short-term. Longer-term, outcomes vary depending on the level of optimism that was priced in when the shock hits. Coming into 2026, most asset markets were exhibiting excessive optimism -pricing the best of all possible outcomes. Just one example: the S&P […]
March 3, 2026 | Iranians Divided Over Regime Change
The Western press is desperately trying to frame the Iranian people as either celebrating liberation or rallying behind their government. As always, the truth is far more complex. The Iranian population is deeply divided, and that division is precisely what unfolds when an external military strike hits a nation already suffering from internal political and […]
March 2, 2026 | Landmark Agreements?
Happy Monday Morning! While everyone was busy following the enormous geopolitical events unfolding in the middle east, a subtle news release from the Federal Government went largely unnoticed or perhaps intentionally burried, despite having (potentially) significant ramifications for nearly all of Metro Vancouver. The Musqueam Indian Band and the Government of Canada signed a Rights Recognition […]
March 2, 2026 | Will Mortgage Rates Crash and Spur a Real Estate Boom?
Everyone keeps asking if mortgage rates will collapse in 2026 as if the entire real estate market revolves around the Federal Reserve pulling a lever. That is simply not how the system actually functions. Mortgage rates are tied to long-term capital flows and the 10-year yield, not just whatever the Fed does at the […]
March 2, 2026 | Art of the Collapse, March 2026
Welcome to the Era of Mixed Feelings. The world is still at war… …but stackers are getting rich: The “Epstein class” is now a thing: Next up: culture war Alarming Study Shows Average Somali High School Senior In Minnesota Committing Fraud At Just A 5th Grade Level (Babylon Bee) – An alarming new study of Minnesota schools […]
March 1, 2026 | Why Stocks Look Like Hell
[Events in the Middle East have overshadowed my narrow economic critique of President Trump in the commentary below. His alliance with Israel to knock out global jihad’s command structure is likely to change the world in ways no one can predict. It will also test the idea that only military might can secure a lasting […]
March 1, 2026 | The Coming Crisis: Fingers of Instability
This letter is a little different. I am indeed working on my book about what I believe is a coming crisis by reviewing five different cycle theories. They all arrive at a similar scenario from different points of view, but they all suggest a crisis occurring sometime around the end of this decade or perhaps […]
February 28, 2026 | US & Israel vs Iran
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you pointed out previously that Zelensky was a war criminal for targeting leaders in Russia. You wrote: “Zelensky is a war criminal based on the Rules of War and Geneva. Whether the car bomb is perfidious depends entirely on the method used to get the bomb to the target. Perfidy (Treachery) is strictly prohibited under Article 37 of the Geneva […]
February 28, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for February 28, 2026
Here’s how markets were pricing tensions ahead of the attack on Iran Nymex front-month WTI futures closed at a 7-month high of ~$67 on Friday, up ~23% from December’s $55 low. (WTI had trended lower from ~$95 in September 2023 to the December 2025 low, as supply appeared to grow faster than demand). COT data shows […]
February 28, 2026 | Tech Talk for Saturday February 28th 2026
The Bottom Line World equity markets are expected to open lower on Monday following start of U.S. and Israel military attacks on Iran on Saturday and subsequent retaliation by Iran. The S&P 500 Index is expected to test short term support at 6,775.50 at the opening. U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETFs (e.g. PPA and ITA) […]
February 27, 2026 | Major Wars are Terrible For Some Investors
War, What Is It Good For? “War, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing.” This 1970 lyric from The Temptations captured the anger of the Vietnam era. But in financial markets, war is good for one thing: inflation. A February 2026 academic study examining 300 years of U.S. and U.K. data reaches a blunt conclusion: government bonds […]
February 27, 2026 | WEF President Resigns Over Epstein Ties
The resignation of World Economic Forum President Borge Brende is being framed in the press as a simple leadership transition, but the underlying issue is far more revealing about the crisis of confidence now unfolding within global institutions. Brende stepped down after his past contacts with Jeffrey Epstein came to light. According to reports, the […]
February 26, 2026 | One Cause of Silver’s Recent Volatility
Quite a rollercoaster we silver stackers are on. The metal’s price gaps up, making us geniuses. Then it tanks, replacing our self-regard with angst. And then it does it all again. Some behind-the-scenes games are definitely being played, and here’s one of them: Start with the fact that Jane Street, a semi-obscure investment bank, recently […]
February 26, 2026 | Private Equity’s Dry Spell Worse Than 2008 Crisis
Private equity returned fewer profits to investors for a fourth straight year as the industry sat on $3.8 trillion of unsold assets and struggled to raise money for new funds. Distributions as a percentage of net asset value remained at 14% last year — the second-lowest level since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, […]
February 26, 2026 | American Voters Favor Trump over the Democratic Part
Americans “still trust Trump more than the Democrats — and in every category,” according to an ABC poll. The joke used in the piece is actually very telling: in politics, you do not need to outrun the lion, you just need to outrun the other candidate. That is a far more accurate description of […]
February 25, 2026 | Price Discovery Brutal Awakening from ‘Easy Money’ Era
From 2009 to 2022, alternative and private lenders multiplied as traditional banks tightened underwriting standards and yield-starved investors looked beyond conventional options. As usual, ‘easy money’ led to overconfident, under-analyzed allocation decisions across many asset classes at once. Real estate busts tend to be slow-moving, and then suddenly, all at once. Eight years after the […]
February 24, 2026 | United Nations Moves to Censor the Internet
The United Nations is now openly discussing “coordinated global action” to combat what it defines as disinformation and hate speech online, and this should not be dismissed as some abstract policy debate. This is a structural shift toward the internationalization of speech regulation, and that carries profound political and economic implications. The […]
February 24, 2026 | Regime Change at the Fed: From Big Bank Bailouts to Local Productivity
From Scheer Post On January 30, when former Federal Reserve board member Kevin Warsh was nominated by President Trump as the central bank’s next chair, markets sold off and gold and silver plunged. Investors were positioned for a “dove,” someone inclined to cut rates aggressively and keep money loose; and Warsh has a long-standing reputation […]
February 23, 2026 | Will Iran be Their Proxy War Against USA?
There is a deep division within the Trump Administration with a pro war and anti-war groups. The anti-war group are VP Vance and Tulsi Gabbard. The pro war group are Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and theemdless war moner Senator Lindsey Graham. Both Israel and the Neocons are consistently pushing for US action, […]
February 23, 2026 | The Bill is Due
Happy Monday Morning! Canada’s headline inflation rate slowed to 2.3% last month, cooler than economist expectations for 2.4%. Finally, shelter price inflation in Canada slowed to 1.7% on an annual basis, falling below 2% for the first time in nearly five years! This was largely driven by a deceleration in rent prices and mortgage interest […]
February 23, 2026 | Breakthroughs: Starlink + Next-Gen Batteries = Viable Homesteads
A growing number of people, fed up with dysfunctional cities and craving a simpler/safer life, are fantasizing about homesteading. But only a tiny fraction of that group has actually made the move. Why? Because that level of self-sufficiency is vastly harder than it looks. Or…at least it was vastly harder. Two breakthroughs might revolutionize the homesteading concept: Starlink […]
February 23, 2026 | CIBC: Housing Downturn Worse Than Thought and Bad News For Economy
A Bank of Canada study estimated that for every dollar increase in home values, spending rose by 5.7 cents. A New Zealand study found that the housing wealth effect had an even greater impact in reducing spending when home prices were falling than when they were rising. Prices in Canada have fallen more than 20% […]
February 22, 2026 | Was China’s Kung Fu Moon-Shot Real?
Robot demonstrations are notorious for going comically awry. Seat Robby at a staged dinner and he will stab himself in the eye with a forkful of make-believe mashed potatoes. Have him put a butter dish back in the refrigerator and he’ll slam the door on his head. So what, then, are we to make of this […]
February 22, 2026 | Conflicting Data, Conflicting Results
Is inflation rising or falling? Is unemployment solid or are there significant issues? Given the massive revisions of labor data, how can we base decisions on employment numbers? And what happens when the various collected data conflicts with themselves? Given that there are no clear guidelines for policy decisions, those of us sitting in the […]