ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
October 1, 2025 | Art of the Collapse, October 2025
Things took a dark turn in September. We’ll get to that. But first, the usual corruption and incompetence: Dashboard Now for that dark(er) turn, starting with a Ukrainian woman being stabbed to death on a train… …which was quickly followed by the Charlie Kirk assassination: Universities Quietly Cancel ‘Kill Conservatives 101’ Courses (BabylonBee) – In […]
October 1, 2025 | Economic Hits Keep Coming
While Washington deflects attention with yet another government shutdown standoff, US economic data deteriorated further in September; see US Consumer Confidence Falls to Five-Month Low on Job Concerns. The latest published U.S. Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) index came in at 94.2, down from 97.8 in August (on the lower left since August 2023). The share of […]
October 1, 2025 | Canadian Govt Prepares to Disarm Civilians
There has never been a positive outcome when the government sets out to disarm the people. Authoritarian states are the inevitable result. Certain semi-automatic weapons were prohibited in March 2025, with a one-year amnesty period for lawful gun owners to surrender their rifles through a buyback program. The government claims the buyback program is completely […]
September 30, 2025 | $20,000 of Added Value for Only $1,500
There’s nothing better than doing something you love – and making money from it. Here’s how Robert Campbell added $20,000 of value to an otherwise mundane and unexciting stairwell. Cost of Materials: $400.00 for beams and wood planking on the ceiling; $50.00 for relocating the light so it is centered on the airplane pic; […]
September 30, 2025 | Pandemic-Era Policies Crashing Down
The Pandemic policy response saw a frenzied mix of debt forbearance, government handouts, policies aimed at increasing debt to stimulate home buying and speculation, mortgage rates under 2%, and an immigration surge concentrated in a few areas, especially around post-secondary schools. Not surprisingly, as interest rates normalize, immigration slows, and the housing bubble deflates, all […]
September 30, 2025 | Left-Wing Violence Reaches 30-Year High
Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) has become a right-leaning moderate. His Democratic colleagues are promoting an environment of violence, urging constituents to “fight back” against “fascists.” The left approaches every major disagreement or news story with extreme violence that has recently peaked to a 30-year high. “Unchecked extreme rhetoric, like labels as Hitler or […]
September 29, 2025 | Credit Bubbles Cost Fortunes in the End
Years of reckless lending and borrowing are nearing another predictable end: surging defaults and losses. As Oaktree Capital Management’s co-chair and credit specialist, Howard Marks, has noted: “The worst loans are made at the best of times,” when credit and optimism are plentiful. While risk-sellers continue to insist that households are in good financial shape (just as […]
September 29, 2025 | Intervention Required
Happy Monday Morning! As we have been highlighting for quite some time, the new housing sector is in shambles and isn’t likely to improve for at least another year or two. As always, governments are slow to react despite a lot of hand waving from the private sector. Recent data from Altus Group shows us […]
September 29, 2025 | Digital IDs Mandatory in Britain by 2029
Mandatory digital IDs are coming to the United Kingdom by2029. Prime Minister Keir Starmer would like the public to believe that verification is a protective measure to curb illegal immigration. Digital IDs are a purely a CONTROL tactic. Once you allow the government to link every citizen to a digital profile, the next step […]
September 28, 2025 | Wall Street Finally Embraces Gold
For as long as most of us have been alive, the standard investment portfolio has consisted of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, with stocks providing growth while bonds protect against downturns. This worked beautifully, with the typical portfolio generating a reliable 8%-10% annual return. But it’s not working anymore. As the credit supercycle (which sent […]
September 28, 2025 | Disruptive Thoughts
Physicists have a concept called “entropy,” which basically says systems will tend to move from orderly to disorderly over time. Entropy is central to physics, thermodynamics, and other fields of physical science. Economics, however, isn’t a physical science. The way we allocate scarce resources isn’t bound by fixed laws of the universe. We have some […]
September 27, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for September 27, 2025
Buy The Dip has worked like a charm for years. Is it still a good idea? The S&P has rallied ~40% from its low in April and reached another all-time high this week. It’s up ~92% from the October 2022 lows, and more than 200% from the 2020 lows. It’s up 10X from the 2009 lows. Can […]
September 27, 2025 | Has Trump Has Guaranteed Our War Model Will Be Correct?
When President Trump actually addressed the United Nations General Assembly during his first term, I remember that he criticized globalism, drawing derisive laughter that momentarily derailed his remarks. This time, nobody was laughing. I had hoped that Trump’s flip-flop on Ukraine, which is now costing him sharply in the polls, would have just been […]
September 27, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday September 27th 2025
The Bottom Line “Sell on Rosh Hashanah, buy on Yum Kippur” (i.e. Sell S&P 500 on September 22nd, buy on October 1st this year) is working once again. Likelihood of the event is compounded by the traditional “hang over” impact on equity and options markets following expiration of September listed options and futures on Friday. […]
September 26, 2025 | US GDP Rose 3.8% in Q3
US GDP grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2, surpassing estimates of 3.3%, leading the press to cheer a strong and robust economy. By design, the GDP calculation counts net exports as a positive. When imports collapse, GDP rises even though that is a signal of weakened consumer demand. Consumer spending rose by 2.5%, […]
September 26, 2025 | The Mag 7 are The Most Expensive Stocks Ever by a Wide Margin
Mag 7: The Most Expensive Stocks in History The top stocks in 2025 make the dot-com bubble leaders look cheap. Back in 2000, the leaders were Microsoft, GE, Cisco, Walmart, Exxon, Intel, and NTT. Today, it’s the “Magnificent 7” — Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla. Here’s the shocker: The Mag 7 is […]
September 25, 2025 | ECB: Keep Calm and Carry Cash
The European Central Bank (ECB) is urging citizens to “keep calm and carry cash.” The ominous message is a warning of trouble ahead. Bank runs, defaults, war, grid failures, pandemics—the current banking system cannot rely on what’s ahead. “Cash provides essential redundancy – a ‘spare tire’ – for the payment system,” the study’s authors write. […]
September 24, 2025 | Trump calls Russia a ‘Paper Tiger,’ & Tells Zelensky He Can Now Invade Even Russia
Within months of Zelensky’s election, on December 20th, 2019, Ukrainian law enforcement raided both Poroshenko’s party headquarters and gym on the orders of President Zelensky, who has turned out to be ruthless and a questionable head of state. The raid was intended to eliminate any possible influence of Poroshenko going forward. It was used […]
September 24, 2025 | Good News and Bad News
Institutional exposure to equities is at its highest level since November 2007, and American households’ allocation to stocks has surpassed the 2000 tech-bubble highs. Trading volume on U.S. stock exchanges last week reclaimed last April’s record high. At the same time, as debt prices have soared, the yield reward that investors are receiving from owning […]
September 23, 2025 | Canada Paying for Housing Excesses with Interest
Last week, Equifax Canada reported that 286,000 businesses in this country missed a loan payment last quarter. In the Greater Toronto Area, the number of mortgage lenders repossessing homes and selling them has climbed roughly 60 per cent year over year. Ninety-day-plus mortgage delinquency rates are climbing in Greater Toronto, Greater Vancouver and Canada generally, according to data from RBC. […]
September 23, 2025 | Maxime Bernier: Speech – A Monetary Reset is Coming and Canada Isn’t Prepared
Maxime Bernier Capitalism & Morality Conference Vancouver, August 23, 2025 Good morning! Thank you Jayant for inviting me again to speak at your conference. This conference consistently brings together a serious and thoughtful group of people interested in ideas. I must say, you have to be truly interested in ideas to be looking forward to […]
September 23, 2025 | Thailand Freezes Over 3 Million Bank Accounts
Thailand has become a case study for the use of biometric data in every facet of life. Every banking transaction is monitored and scrutinized. Any perceived discrepancy is flagged as fraud and punished without due process. Regulations have overwhelmed the system, resulting in a full-fledged banking crisis. Over three million Thai bank accounts were frozen […]
September 22, 2025 | The Fed Cuts Interest Rates…And Money Gets Tighter
Last week, the Fed started easing again, with a quarter-point cut in its overnight lending rate and a promise of more to come. But the bond market was not impressed: 10-year Treasury yield hits 2-week high despite Fed rate cut this week (CNBC) – U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday as investors weighed the state […]
September 22, 2025 | Imminent Bounce
Happy Monday Morning! As expected, Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada slashed rates by 25bps this past week. The Bank pushed aside inflation concerns, suggesting “There was a clear sense that the balance of risk had shifted… Tariffs are weakening the Canadian economy.” Job losses are picking up momentum. The unemployment rate has ticked […]
September 22, 2025 | Most Have No Idea What’s Happening with Their Money
At the end of June 2025, the Global Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) industry had 14,390 products, with 28,447 listings, from 876 providers on 81 exchanges in 63 countries (source: ETFGI). As shown below, since 2007, the $16.99 trillion USD of global market value was 5.7x the $2.948 Tn in 2015 and 20x the $831 billion of […]