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December 13, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for December 13, 2025
Brief notes today – lots of charts The S&P surged on Wednesday and Thursday after the not-so-hawkish (?) cut from the Fed, nearly making a new record high, but slipped lower overnight Thursday and tumbled on Friday as traders seemed to have “second thoughts” about AI. The “second thoughts” about AI were more pronounced in the […]
December 13, 2025 | The COVIDIOT
December 13, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday December 13th 2025
The Bottom Line The TSX Composite Index has just entered its strongest period of seasonal strength in the year relative to the S&P 500 Index. During the past 20 periods from December 14th to March 3rd, the TSX Composite Index has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 2.7% per period.
December 12, 2025 | Recession in 2026 Will Make The Fed Cut Rates Further
The Fed’s 2026 Outlook: Recessionary Signal or Inflationary Pause? The Federal Reserve recently cut the official interest rate by a modest 25 basis points. Faced with general economic weakness, rising unemployment, and the delayed inflationary impact of tariffs, the central bank is walking a tightrope. Will we see more aggressive cuts in 2026? That depends […]
December 12, 2025 | The Gold/Silver Bull Market, in Seven Charts
Incrementum — source of great gold/silver charts — just posted some new ones that illustrate the epic nature of this bull market. Here are seven, and the stories they tell: Gold in This Century The following chart shows what would have happened if we had bought gold at nearly any time in this century. The […]
December 12, 2025 | The EU and Canada Collaborate on Digital IDs
The latest agreement between the European Union and Canada to collaborate on mutually recognized digital IDs is simply another step in what I have been warning about for years. Whenever government confidence collapses, the political class tightens control. Digital ID is not about convenience; it is about tracking capital and controlling movement as the […]
December 11, 2025 | Hawkish Members Outnumbered – Fed Cuts Rates for Third Consecutive Time
The Federal Reserve was divided this December; hawkish members of the FOMC were outnumbered, and the central bank approved its third consecutive cut of 2025. “We’re in the high end of the range of neutral,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell added. “It″s so happened that we’ve cut three times. We have we haven’t made […]
December 10, 2025 | Why the Fed’s Cuts May Not Boost Stocks – Long Term
Today’s Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates and restart Quantitative Easing (QE) places it on a path of ‘easy money’ that is increasingly isolated globally. While the Fed focuses on protecting employment, the global financial system is signaling major inflation concerns, a trend that longer-term could threaten the stock market. Warning Signs Global Banks Stand […]
December 10, 2025 | Trump Preparing to Exit NATO?
President Trump released the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) of the US, released by the White House on December 4th, 2025, marks a potentially profound shift in US foreign policy. He has criticized Europe and insisted on ending the perception and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance. This 33-page document […]
December 10, 2025 | High Shelter Prices Cost a Fortune
About 36% (14.8m) of Canada’s (41m) population lives in three metro areas (StatsCan data): Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. Unfortunately, these three cities have the dubious distinction of experiencing the most significant home price inflation in North America over the past two decades, far ahead of other major American cities (shown below, courtesy of Visual Capitalist), […]
December 9, 2025 | Minnesota Indicative of Broader Scam – Identity Politics
(Minnesota state flag) COMMENT: Marty, After reading the stories you’ve shared about people not being able to almost anything of value onto planes without a real risk of confiscation, the Alpha News video where a TSA agent claims to have observed multiple suitcases of cash muled out of the country by Somali men makes […]
December 9, 2025 | Nothing More Empowering Than Self-Powering
We have driven electric cars for 8 years now, and our real-life experience confirms that EVs are safer, cleaner and much cheaper to operate than conventional ICE autos. Yes, even in cold climates. Last year, we added solar and can now self-power our cars and 75% of our annual electricity needs. Like growing food and […]
December 8, 2025 | Canada Sees a Rise in New Military Recruits
The Canadian military had been contracting in recent years, but new recruitment incentives have changed the course. There is no better time to recruit fresh blood than when the economy turns down. An October 2025 Auditor General’s report found that the Canadian military was not attracting enough applicants to meet quotas. Prime Minister Mark Carney […]
December 8, 2025 | Is the Bank of Canada done easing?
Some unexpectedly strong employment estimates from Statistics Canada last Friday caused markets to reprice abruptly, with the expectation that the Bank of Canada is done easing and will hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% through 2026. The unexpected employment gains for November were driven entirely by survey results reporting part-time jobs (below in yellow […]
December 8, 2025 | Italy Declares Central Bank Held Gold an Asset of the People
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde steps in every time a government attempts to implement monetary policy. The centralized power now has the final say, sorry, but sovereignty is not an option for European Union members. Italy proposed declaring gold an asset of the people, but Lagarde has found a way to prevent that from […]
December 8, 2025 | Next Year’s Wild Card: The Yen Carry Trade
Most countries’ sovereign bond markets have been pretty tame lately. Here, for instance, is the yield on US Treasury notes: But it’s different in Japan, where money is getting dramatically tighter: Normally, when the world is moving in one direction and a single country breaks ranks, it can be dismissed as a temporary glitch that […]
December 8, 2025 | Self-Inflicted
Happy Monday Morning! The Canadian economy added 54K jobs in November, marking the third consecutive month of surprising job gains. The unemployment rate plunged to 6.5%, the lowest since July 2024 and down from 6.9% last month. The “suddenly hot” labour market is rather perplexing considering all the news headlines about layoffs (especially in the […]
December 8, 2025 | Mass Collective Societal Suicide
“Historians will look back at the wreckage of a once-great American civilization and not with wonder that tens of millions of people who were entirely dependent upon government welfare payments were nonetheless allowed to vote. Even to include millions of illiterate 3rd world illiterate aliens who snuck in, then were put on welfare, and were […]
December 7, 2025 | Interview: Helping Alberta Separate
December 7, 2025 | Zuckerberg’s Huge Branding Problem
Stocks looked leaden as the week ended, adding to the impression that the aging bull market is topping. The Dow tacked on a perfunctory 104 points, or 0.22%, and it wasn’t pretty. There was little life in the lunatic sector (aka ‘the Magnificent Seven’), which until recently could be relied on to celebrate its wildest […]
December 7, 2025 | Poverty Level Discourse
ith every paper I’d deliverBad news on the doorstepI couldn’t take one more step I can’t remember if I cried When I read about his widowed bride But something touched me deep inside The day the music died – Don McLean, American Pie, 1971 Preface: I don’t think it’s just me. We are […]
December 6, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for December 6, 2025
Run it hot The rally in risk assets is supported, in part, by ideas that governments around the world will “Run It Hot” (with stimulative fiscal and monetary policies) to ramp up economic growth as they try to outrun the consequences of the global sovereign debt crisis. The “debasement trade” involves buying risk assets as a […]
December 6, 2025 | Making Sense of the “Silver Glitch”
Silver is in the news lately, as it smashes old records and (apparently) wreaks havoc in metals exchanges. But, as usual in global finance, many of the details range from technical to incomprehensible. So here’s an article from Katusa Research that explains some of silver’s recent action and why it’s every bit as bullish as it sounds. […]
December 6, 2025 | Carney’s Undermining the Canadian Civil Rights like UK?
COMMENT: This is what Carney is doing to Canada. He is following Stammer, and civil rights are all gone. This man is found in breach of a judge’s order for refusing to write a court-ordered apology letter to library manager Shannon Slater for “hurting her feelings.” Anonymous REPLY: Any government that is in […]
December 6, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday December 6th 2025
The Bottom Line Focuses this week are on interest rate decisions announced on Wednesday by Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. Consensus calls for no change in the Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate to major Canadian banks at 2.25% and a 0.25% drop by the Fed Fund Rate to 3.75%. Consensus for Earnings […]