August 9, 2026 | Is the Debasement Trade Back?

For gold bugs, last week almost made up for the previous six months’ correction. Almost.

As the above quote implies, this looks like more than a technical bounce off of support. Fundamentals are turning, as a weak jobs report lowered the odds of a Fed tightening for the balance of 2026, which removed some of the angst plaguing precious metals. But there’s more:

China apparently took advantage of lower gold prices to accelerate its buying. From an AI summary:

China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), has extended its gold-buying streak to 21 consecutive months, making it the dominant force in the global gold market. In July 2026, the PBoC purchased 20 tonnes of gold, its largest single-month increase since October 2023, bringing its total official reserves to approximately 2,352 tonnes. This aggressive accumulation is part of a broader strategy to diversify away from US dollar-denominated assets like Treasuries, driven by geopolitical tensions and de-dollarization efforts.

From a recent Kitco video/article:

“China is a very active buyer of dips,” Middelkoop said, adding that the same pattern holds in copper and oil. He said China bought more than 150 tonnes of gold in June alone and that Chinese demand for gold and silver is running 150% to 200% above last year’s levels. “They like lower prices. They like this correction. I think this correction is almost over,” he said.

Meanwhile, inflation has completely decoupled from the Fed’s 2% target:

Last but not least, stories like the following are everywhere in this earnings season:

Barrick: Gold Production Beats Guidance As Free Cash Flow Surges 195% To $1.21 Billion

(Pulse2) – Barrick Corporation reported stronger-than-planned gold production and sharply higher cash generation for the first quarter of 2026, with attributable free cash flow jumping 195% year-over-year to $1.21 billion.

Barrick produced 719,000 ounces of gold during the quarter, exceeding its guidance range of 640,000 to 680,000 ounces. The company attributed the outperformance to strong underground mining and processing at Nevada Gold Mines, higher throughput and grades at Veladero, and a faster-than-expected ramp-up at Loulo-Gounkoto. Copper production totaled 49,000 tonnes and was in line with the company’s plan.

The operational performance combined with higher gold prices produced substantial earnings and cash-flow growth. Revenue increased 67% year-over-year to $5.22 billion. Net earnings reached $1.60 billion, or $0.96 per share, while adjusted net earnings were $1.65 billion, or $0.98 per share. Net earnings per share increased 256%, and adjusted net earnings per share rose 180%.

Strong cash generation is also supporting shareholder returns. Barrick declared a quarterly dividend of $0.175 per share. Its dividend policy targets an annualized payout equal to 50% of attributable free cash flow through a base dividend and potential year-end performance component. The board also authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $3 billion.

Back to the Debasement Trade?

Anything can happen in the short run, but a lot of positives do seem to be piling up for precious metals. Meanwhile, numerous high-quality miners are cash flow machines while still way off their 12-month highs. See a representative list here.

John Rubino August 9th, 2026

Posted In: John Rubino Substack

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