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Don Vialoux

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Donald Vialoux is author of the free blog Tech Talk, a daily investment report available during the past 20 years at www.timingthemarket.ca. Comments focus on the seasonal and technical outlook for equity indices, commodities and sectors. Mr. Vialoux has 53 years of experience in the investment industry and is a past president of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA).

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The calm before the storm! Frequency of quarterly reports by North American companies reaches a low point this week: Many companies are in the “quiet zone” period prior to release of results. Consensus shows that analysts are expecting lower earnings growth in the third quarter relative to the second quarter when earnings […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line “Sell on Rosh Hashanah, buy on Yum Kippur” (i.e. Sell S&P 500 on September 22nd, buy on October 1st this year) is working once again. Likelihood of the event is compounded by the traditional “hang over” impact on equity and options markets following expiration of September listed options and futures on Friday. […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line “Sell on Rosh Hashanah, buy on Yum Kippur”: Ancient Jewish saying related to U.S. equity markets! It predicts a brief period of seasonal weakness for U.S. equity markets. This year, the period is from Monday September 22nd to Wednesday October 1st. The saying coincides closely with the weakest two week period in […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line  Focuses this week are on central bank announcements on Wednesday. The FOMC and Bank of Canada are expected to lower their lending rate to major banks by 0.25%. Stock and bond prices during the past two week in September have moved higher in anticipation of the change. A word of caution! U.S. […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Responses to the August U.S. employment report released on Friday were significant. Lower than consensus Non-farm Payrolls prompted equity prices to move lower and bond prices to move higher. Yield on 10 year Treasuries dropped below support a 4.18% and 4.12% extending an intermediate downtrend. Yield dropped on growing anticipation of a […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line U.S. equity indices have a history of moving lower in September, particularly during post Presidential Election years. What about this year? With major U.S. equity indices currently at all-time highs and reaching intermediate and long term overbought levels, chances of at least a shallow correction this September are higher than average. Impact […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole Symposium speech on Friday morning triggered significant buying: Expectation of a reduction in the Fed Fund Rate at the next FOMC meeting on September 17th triggered purchases of both U.S. equities and bonds. The S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average SPDRs (DIA) […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Technical parameters for North American equity markets were mixed last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index, NASDAQ Composite Index and TSX Composite Index managed to set all-time highs. On the other hand, the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) closed below its all-time high set on July 25th and […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Despite gains recorded by U.S. equity indices last week, technical evidence of an intermediate peak set in late July continues to accumulate. North American equity markets have entered their traditional corrective period in August and September during post-U.S. President Election years following an advance from April to July. Strength this year from […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity markets have entered their traditional corrective period in August and September during post-U.S. President Election years following an advance from April to July. Strength this year from April to July was prompted by greater (i.e. front end loaded) economic activity prior to launch of tariffs on manufactured products. And […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Here comes equity market volatility! Lots of market moving news impacting North American equity markets this week including:  FOMC and Bank of Canada’s decisions on interest rates on Wednesday. No changes in U.S. and Canadian administered rates are expected, but traders will watch closely for potential timing for future rate reductions […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focuses this week are on second quarter earnings reports by major U.S. and Canadian companies. Look for additional surprisingly strong results relative to consensus! Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies Source: www.factset.com The second quarter earnings season continues to surprise: 60 S&P 500 companies have reported results to date […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week is on second quarter earnings reports released by companies in the U.S. Financial Services sector. Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies Source: www.factset.com The second quarter earnings season is off to a good start: 20 S&P 500 companies have reported results to date. 71% reported earnings […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Passage of “The One Beautiful Bill” by Congress late on Thursday and signed by President Trump on Friday is expected to set the stage for North American equity markets to move higher this week. The “Summer Rally” that frequently lasts until the end of July started last week. Consensus for Earnings and […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line All-time highs for the S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite Index were recorded on Friday! What about a summer rally by U.S. equity indices this year? According to www.EquityClock.com, “The market may be setup for a move higher going into the new quarter. Stocks have tended to produce gains, on average, between […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Economic focus this week is on U.S. Core May PCE Price Index released on Friday. Earnings focuses this week are on FedEx on Tuesday and Nike on Thursday. Political focus this week is on the “One Big Beautiful Bill”. Will Congress pass the Bill before the July 4th holiday? Seasonal focus is […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Volatility spiked in U.S. equity markets on Friday mainly due to the increasing military conflict between Israel and Iran. The VIX Index moved above 20.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Nice technical breakout on Friday by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its related ETF: DIA! Measured by percent of S&P 500 stock trading above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages, U.S. equity prices are Overbought and peaked in mid-May. Strength in a small number of big cap U.S. stocks […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Technical momentum by broadly based U.S. equity indices weakened last week below high levels reached on or near May 16th: S&P 500 at 5,968.61, Dow Jones Industrial Average at 42,892.04, NASDAQ Composite Index at 19,389.39 and Russell 2000 ETF at 210.13. Major U.S. equity indices have entered into a brief period of […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line U.S. equity markets are following their traditional seasonal pattern in a U.S. Post-Presidential Election year: a strong move in April/mid-May followed by a brief corrective phase until the beginning of July.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line All-time highs by the TSX Composite Index and S&P/TSE 60 Index! The later Index moved above 1,561.25 on Friday.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week is on U.S. inflation. Consensus for April CPI and April PPI calls for rising rates that likely will dampen trader enthusiasm. Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies Analyst estimates for earnings gains for the first quarter of 2025 increased again last week after reported results exceeded […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Sell in May and go away? History of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during Post Presidential Election Years since 1950 (e.g. 2025) shows a shallow period of weakness from mid-May to th end of September (including a brief summer rally to the end of July). Average drop during the period was 2.0%

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line First quarter results released to date by major North American companies have been a pleasant surprise. Most large cap companies significantly exceeded consensus earnings estimates. Equity prices responded accordingly. Strength in equity prices was recorded despite concerns about U.S. tariff wars that prompted analysts to lower earnings and revenue estimates for the […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Currency trends are having a significant impact on equity price performance. Continuing weakness in the U.S. Dollar related to political uncertainty and corresponding strength in other currencies (notably the Canadian Dollar) are having a substantial impact on equity prices.
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