Juggling Dynamite - While Washington deflects attention with yet another government shutdown standoff, US economic data deteriorated further in September; see US Consumer Confidence Falls to Five-Month Low on Job Concerns. The latest published U.S. Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) index came in at 94.2, down from 97.8 in August (on the lower left since August 2023). The share of […]

Juggling Dynamite - The Pandemic policy response saw a frenzied mix of debt forbearance, government handouts, policies aimed at increasing debt to stimulate home buying and speculation, mortgage rates under 2%, and an immigration surge concentrated in a few areas, especially around post-secondary schools. Not surprisingly, as interest rates normalize, immigration slows, and the housing bubble deflates, all […]

Juggling Dynamite - Years of reckless lending and borrowing are nearing another predictable end: surging defaults and losses. As Oaktree Capital Management’s co-chair and credit specialist, Howard Marks, has noted: “The worst loans are made at the best of times,” when credit and optimism are plentiful. While risk-sellers continue to insist that households are in good financial shape (just as […]

Juggling Dynamite - Institutional exposure to equities is at its highest level since November 2007, and American households’ allocation to stocks has surpassed the 2000 tech-bubble highs. Trading volume on U.S. stock exchanges last week reclaimed last April’s record high. At the same time, as debt prices have soared, the yield reward that investors are receiving from owning […]

Juggling Dynamite - Last week, Equifax Canada reported that 286,000 businesses in this country missed a loan payment last quarter. In the Greater Toronto Area, the number of mortgage lenders repossessing homes and selling them has climbed roughly 60 per cent year over year. Ninety-day-plus mortgage delinquency rates are climbing in Greater Toronto, Greater Vancouver and Canada generally, according to data from RBC. […]

Juggling Dynamite - At the end of June 2025, the Global Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) industry had 14,390 products, with 28,447 listings, from 876 providers on 81 exchanges in 63 countries (source: ETFGI). As shown below, since 2007, the $16.99 trillion USD of global market value was 5.7x the $2.948 Tn in 2015 and 20x the $831 billion of […]

Juggling Dynamite - Like last September, financial markets have high hopes for rate cuts and dovish comments from the US Fed and Bank of Canada today. Futures markets are pricing 150 basis points of Fed cuts by the end of 2026 (taking Fed policy down to 2.75% to 3%) and 75 basis points from the Bank of Canada […]

Juggling Dynamite - Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 7%. Today, S&P 500 pricing assumes a forward 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 15% (Rosenberg Research). Leveraging this extraordinary optimism, the S&P 500 is trading at more than 23x 5-year forward earnings expectations, some 28% above the longer-term historical […]

Juggling Dynamite -

Juggling Dynamite - The salad days of near-zero interest rates enabled excess demand and price-insensitive buying across most sectors all at once; that included art markets. After a euphoric frenzy peaked in 2022, art prices have been falling since, and a world of feeder sectors and businesses is contracting along for the ride. See, The Storm Hits the Art […]

Juggling Dynamite - Backward-looking job revisions show the US and Canadian economies have been producing fewer and fewer jobs amid rising unemployment. Mass layoffs are due next. EPB Macro’s Eric Basmajian explains in the segments below. This video analyzes why elevated profit margins are giving businesses more room and time to absorb slowing economic conditions without resorting to […]

Juggling Dynamite - Statistics Canada housing data shows that, in 2021, across the provinces, 15–27% of houses were owned as an investment/secondary property (i.e., not an owner’s primary residence)—with PEI 27%, Nova Scotia 20%, Ontario/Manitoba/New Brunswick/B.C. generally in the mid-teens. Condos skewed higher, with 30–42% of condo apartments owned as secondary properties in the provinces studied. (Perspectives Journal). In related […]

Juggling Dynamite - The Toronto area saw the average home price drop for the seventh consecutive year-over-year decline in August. Detached home prices, down 10%, fell more than other property types. The average sales price for all property types has dropped by more than 23 per cent in the GTA (Greater Toronto Area) since the February 2022 price […]

Juggling Dynamite - After a year of projecting confidence in America’s “strong” and “resilient” economy, at his recent Jackson Hole appearance, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suddenly changed his tune. He expressed concern about the deteriorating labor market, saying the situation may warrant a resumption of monetary easing notwithstanding the potential inflationary risks of tariffs. This comes at […]

Juggling Dynamite - It is wild and indefensible that insider trading by politicians remains rampant. Conflicts of interest queer policy and undermine faith and trust in institutions. And yet, will efforts to ban it ever get passed? Reasonable people hope. Here is a direct video link.

Juggling Dynamite - Canada’s GDP for the second quarter contracted by 1.6% on an annualized basis, following a downwardly revised 2.0% expansion in the first quarter (Statistics Canada), resulting in a total annualized growth of 0.4% for the first six months of 2025. The weakness was in line with Bank of Canada forecasts but significantly worse than the […]

Juggling Dynamite - Markets react to the chance of a rate cut. Summertime lull was anything but boring. September and October await – two of the seasonally worst months for markets. And our guest – Danielle Park, Venable Park Investment Counsel Inc.  

Juggling Dynamite - I have said for some time that the housing bubble and now bust is the dominant economic challenge at hand, with broader financial impacts than trade tariffs. Industry participants are starting to agree. Toronto-area new home sales marked the worst July on record, “eclipsing” the 1990s housing downturn, according to a report yesterday from the […]

Juggling Dynamite - Worthwhile overview in this discussion. Suddenly, the Federal Reserve is filled with more drama and curveballs than a World Series tiebreaker. The betting markets are abuzz debating who President Trump will replace current Chair Jerome Powell with. A surprise resignation from Fed governor and FOMC voting member Adriana Kugler has added Trump loyalist Stephen Mirran […]

Juggling Dynamite - It now takes the average US worker 24 weeks to find a job after losing one, nearly a month longer than a year ago, according to federal data. The hire rate—the number of hires as a share of overall U.S. employment—was just 3.3% in June, according to the Labour Department; below the 3.9% level in […]

Juggling Dynamite - Here is a direct video link.

Juggling Dynamite - A new MIT report concludes that 95% of generative artificial intelligence (AI) pilots are failing to translate into revenue growth: The GenAI Divide: State of AI in Business 2025, a new report published by MIT’s NANDA initiative, reveals that while generative AI holds promise for enterprises, most initiatives to drive rapid revenue growth are falling flat. Despite the rush to […]

Juggling Dynamite - More cautionary signs of mania behaviour in financial markets, see “Investors lose billions on meme stocks as ‘pump and dump’ scams multiply“: Investors lost billions of dollars in July betting on a handful of small US-listed Chinese stocks that plunged in value shortly after being heavily promoted on social media. Seven Nasdaq-listed microcap stocks — Concorde […]

Juggling Dynamite - US homebuyer demand dropped again in June 2025 – with contract signings for houses declining 2.8% year-over-year to one of the lowest levels on record. At this point, homebuyer interest in the market is even lower than what was experienced in the depths of the 2008 housing crash. The question is: will we see a […]

Juggling Dynamite - As new outside investors become increasingly difficult to find, private equity firms are finding that often the best firm to sell their companies to is…themselves. Yep, you read that right. Private equity firms are increasingly keeping themselves afloat, extracting cash and boosting their fees through self-sold transactions.  See: PEs Sell Firms to Themselves Twice Over to […]