May 22, 2026 | The Xi Trump Summit and The Thucydides Trap

When Xi Jinping invoked the Thucydides Trap at the Trump-Xi summit in May 2026, he was doing more than referencing ancient history. He was signaling something about the present.

The Thucydides Trap theory comes from Graham Allison’s 2017 book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Allison, a professor at Harvard, draws on the ancient rivalry between ruling Sparta and rising Athens to argue that when an upstart power challenges an established one, war becomes likely. As Thucydides wrote, “It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this instilled in Sparta, that made war inevitable.”

The parallel to today is hard to ignore. China and the United States are profoundly different societies — divided by contrasting ideas about individualism, state governance, economics, and the role of incentives. That gulf makes the theory even more applicable.

Underlying the geopolitical rivalry is a fundamental clash of economic philosophies. U.S. leadership since Reagan has embraced the neoliberal framework associated with Margaret Thatcher and Milton Friedman — the conviction that government is a necessary evil to be kept as small as possible while the private sector drives prosperity. Reagan captured it in his 1981 inaugural address: “Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.” He later added, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.”

China sits at the opposite end of the spectrum. Governed by the Chinese Communist Party and grounded in Marxist historical materialism, it has nonetheless built — since 1980 — a massive and fiercely competitive private sector, generating enormous wealth and supporting several major stock markets. Xi Jinping describes the resulting hybrid as “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.”

The contrast between the two systems could hardly be sharper, and that contrast makes the Thucydides Trap more relevant, not less. It is difficult to imagine Americans embracing socialism — and yet China appears to be outcompeting the U.S. model in wealth creation, income growth, and global influence.

China sees its ascent to the top of the world order as not just desirable but historically inevitable, playing out over decades and centuries. The United States, for its part, relies on present military dominance to assert its primacy now.

By invoking the Thucydides Trap, Xi was underlining China’s rising trajectory while subtly hinting at the gradual erosion of American dominance. His stated ambition is a new paradigm of major-country relations. “Can we create greater stability for the world?” he asked — a question that sounded cooperative on the surface but carried an implicit challenge beneath it.

The personal timelines of the two leaders add another dimension. Xi is expected to secure an unprecedented fourth term in late 2027, extending his hold on power until at least 2032, when he will be 79. Trump, who turns 80 next month, is likely to enter a lame-duck phase after the November 2026 midterm elections.

The Thucydides Trap is not inevitable. But the rivalry between these two great powers will only intensify in the years ahead.

Hilliard MacBeth

The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Richardson Wealth Limited or its affiliates. Richardson Wealth Limited is a subsidiary of iA Financial Corporation Inc. and is not affiliated with James Richardson & Sons, Limited. Richardson Wealth is a trade-mark of James Richardson & Sons, Limited and Richardson Wealth Limited is a licensed user of the mark. Richardson Wealth Limited, Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Hilliard MacBeth May 22nd, 2026

Posted In: Hilliard's Weekend Notebook

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