May 29, 2026 | The $4 Trillion Test Coming To The Stock Market

The stock market is about to face a $4 trillion test it has never seen before.

Three companies — SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic — are preparing to go public in the coming months, together seeking roughly $4 trillion in new capital from investors. To put that in perspective, the total of all U.S. IPOs from 1980 to 2025, adjusted for inflation, was about $12.5 trillion. These three deals alone represent nearly a third of that half-century total.

This is happening at a time in the market that many believe is in bubble territory — larger than the dotcom boom of 2000 and arguably rivalling the peak of 1929 that preceded the Great Depression. Yet the S&P 500 keeps reaching new record highs, and every previous stress test has been passed with ease.

What makes this moment stranger still is what didn’t happen on the way up. In past bubbles — especially 1999-2000 — companies raced to sell stock into a rising market. This time, companies have been buying back more shares than they issued. The IPO pipeline has been almost dry. Until now.

Retail investors who think they can sit this out may be surprised. ETFs tracking major indexes will be forced to buy these newly public companies automatically — and in very large amounts.

History offers a cautionary note. Research by BCA Research shows markets tend to underperform for a couple of years following a surge of major IPOs — either because new-issue money is drawn from existing investments, or because sophisticated issuers time their debuts when valuations are at or near a peak. They want the best price. That timing instinct alone should give investors pause.

The AI spending boom adds another layer of pressure. The capital expenditures of the major hyperscalers — Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta — already dwarf 19th century railway construction as a share of GDP. The cash being generated is being consumed by data center buildouts, pushing some companies, including Oracle, into deficit. The appetite for new capital will only grow.

So, expect more IPOs, more secondary offerings, and more pressure on a market already stretched thin.

Will it be enough to end this magnificent bull run? My guess is we’ll find out sooner rather than later.

Hilliard MacBeth

The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Richardson Wealth Limited or its affiliates. Richardson Wealth Limited is a subsidiary of iA Financial Corporation Inc. and is not affiliated with James Richardson & Sons, Limited. Richardson Wealth is a trade-mark of James Richardson & Sons, Limited and Richardson Wealth Limited is a licensed user of the mark. Richardson Wealth Limited, Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Hilliard MacBeth May 29th, 2026

Posted In: Hilliard's Weekend Notebook

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