October 10, 2025 | Canadian Pipelines: Good Bad Ugly and Nightmares

Pipelines: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Another pipeline fantasy rises from the political graveyard.

Premier Danielle Smith is pitching a “ghost” pipeline to the West Coast — no sponsor, no permits, vague route, no funding. It’s Northern Gateway all over again.

Canada’s pipeline history is a mix of ambition, divisive politics, and staggering cost overruns.

Which projects are good, bad, or ugly?

Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX)

Ugly — and then some.
The expansion added about 500,000 barrels a day from Edmonton to Burnaby, now rated at 890,000 bpd. Ottawa bought it for C$4.5 billion, then watched costs explode to C$34 billion. Only one-third will be recovered from industry. Taxpayers could be on the hook for as much as C$19 billion. Add expensive tolls and marine bottlenecks — TMX is a financial nightmare.

Keystone XL (KXL)

This one could have been good.
The 830,000-bpd line from Hardisty to Steele City was under construction when President Biden pulled the plug in 2021. Alberta lost C$1.5 billion. TransCanada (now South Bow) wrote off US$2.2 billion and sued the U.S. for US$15 billion under NAFTA.
KXL was Alberta’s cleanest shot at expanding sales.

Northern Gateway

The ugliest of all.
Approved in 2014 with 209 conditions, this twin-line (525,000 bpd westbound; 193,000 bpd dilbit eastbound) ran into fierce First Nation opposition and the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act. Politically radioactive and logistically impossible.

Energy East

Just plain bad.
A 1.1 million bpd, C$15.7 billion plan to move oil to New Brunswick — but weak demand, massive opposition. Dead on arrival.

So, what’s left?

Canada exports about 4.2 million bpd of crude — almost all to the U.S.
The Enbridge Mainline and Lakehead systems carry 3.2 million bpd at just US$5–9 per barrel, the cheapest route by far.

The U.S. imports 6 million bpd (60% from Canada), produces 13.5 million, uses 20 million, and exports 4 million. There’s no better market.

Smith’s “ghost” pipeline faces heavy headwinds — tanker bans, Indigenous opposition, runaway costs, and zero private support. A potential nightmare like Northern Gateway.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mark Carney met with President Trump this week, reportedly reopening the Keystone XL file.

Trump posted in February 2025:

“The Trump Administration is very different — Easy approvals, almost immediate start! We want the Keystone XL Pipeline built.”

South Bow, operator of the existing Keystone line, said earlier this year it had “moved on,” but now hints it’s “exploring ways to leverage existing pipeline corridors.”

If anything moves forward, a revived Keystone XL is the best of the bunch — same corridor, same customer, fewer headaches, potential private sector sponsor.

Verdict

Good: Keystone XL revival (if it happens)
Bad: Energy East
Ugly: Trans Mountain
Ugliest: Northern Gateway
Ghostly: Smith’s new fantasy

Hilliard MacBeth

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Hilliard MacBeth October 10th, 2025

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