August 3, 2025 | Enjoy Tariff Hubris While It Lasts

The stock market is priced for perfection in a grotesquely imperfect world. Trump provided a fleeting respite by showing us how the Art of the Deal works in trade negotiations. Fox News rightly rubbed the legacy media’s face in his success while the President took a half-dozen victory laps to muted global applause. This may turn out to be more than he deserves, since no one can predict what will come of the new taxes that have been imposed on global trade. Because eggheads, editorialists and Bloomberg’s talking heads have no deep understanding of tariffs, here’s a thought from someone who does — Reagan budget director David Stockman. The point he makes is too basic to ignore: If capitalism is truly free and functioning, America doesn’t need a dealmaker in the White House.

Affordability is our big problem anyway, as the nation’s erstwhile middle class continues to sink toward poverty. Nearly everything we buy has become not merely expensive, but too expensive, particularly big-ticket items like homes and automobiles. The average price of a used car hit $32,000, up from $23,000 just three years ago. It can cost $400 or more to take a family to a ballgame, where a hot dog and a beer are now $25. The $9.99 breakfast special in Las Vegas has risen to $29.99. And if shrinkflation at the supermarket gets any worse, we’ll be buying staples by the gram rather than the ounce.

Putin’s Hole Cards

Inflation will not be the worst of our problems if the Ukraine war takes a turn for the worse. Putin is Trump’s only equal in global power and influence, and he will not bend to Trump’s ultimatums as easily as the pantywaists who run Europe. Whatever Trump intends by repositioning U.S. nuclear subs closer to Russia, going to war is not an option. That leaves sanctions, which have never been known to change Putin’s mind. He has his own cards to play as well: China, North Korea, Syria and Iran.

Celebrating America’s easy victory over its trading partners may play well on Wall Street, the planet’s main source of feel-good balderdash. But the hubris is arguably just a distraction from grave economic problems that could collapse the U.S. economy and stock market overnight.

Rick Ackerman August 3rd, 2025

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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