Howestreet.com - the source for market opinions

ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION

July 3, 2025 | Recession is Here?

Danielle Park

Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com

David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes recession odds are higher than 2022 despite nobody expecting one, pointing to Fed staff forecasting 50% recession probability and the most downbeat Beige Book since 1980. Rosenberg criticizes Powell for calling the economy “solid” while real GDP has been negative sequentially in 2 of the past 3 months and survey data suggests 1% contraction. He highlights a major market dichotomy with stocks up 24% while the dollar is in an 11% bear market, suggesting something is fundamentally wrong. The housing market faces a negative wealth effect as supply-demand gaps widen and prices start cracking. Here is a direct video link. 

 

Further to the comment regarding defensive equity allocations, it is worth noting that they also typically decline significantly during bear markets and recessions. The chart below, courtesy of A., Gary Shilling, offers some historical perspective. Eyes wide open.

 

https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Div-paying-sectors.png

STAY INFORMED! Receive our Weekly Recap of thought provoking articles, podcasts, and radio delivered to your inbox for FREE! Sign up here for the HoweStreet.com Weekly Recap.

July 3rd, 2025

Posted In: Juggling Dynamite

Post a Comment:

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

All Comments are moderated before appearing on the site

*
*

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.