ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
May 14, 2025 | President Trump’s 90-Day Reprieve On Punitive Tariffs Bounces Stocks & Crude Prices … Temporarily
Summary: US stocks and crude oil prices have lifted on the pause in the tariff war with the US and China lowering tariffs against each other to reasonable levels and starting negotiations for long term fixes. WTI has lifted from US$56/b to US$64/b as fear of global recession seceded. Tariffs have been lowered to 30% […]
May 7, 2025 | Next Stock Market Decline To Set Up Bargain Window For Energy Stocks
Trump Tariffs are getting the most attention for deals (White House optimism) with 15 countries before the end of the 90 day window and no deals have yet come to fruition. Japan and Korea were expected to be first but changes in the political leadership in each country is delaying any deals. This would be painful […]
May 1, 2025 | Next General Stock Market Decline Underway. Energy Stocks Likely To Reach Table Pounding BUYS Again In Late May
The Canadian Federal election resulted in a minority Liberal government that will need legislative support from the Bloc. Its leader has said he would support the new government for a year if the Liberals spend $2B more in Quebec. Is this for housing, the high speed train between Montreal and Quebec City or more generous […]
April 23, 2025 | Next Low Risk BUY Window For Energy Stocks Expected In May As WTI Retreats Below US$60/b.
US stocks are now rebounding from the nasty fall from 45,100 in The Dow Jones Industrials Index (in late January 2025) to 36,600 (in early April 2025) as tariff news is less alarming. As more US companies visit the White House and talk of the damage the announced tariff rates would hurt their businesses and […]
April 16, 2025 | Expect Near Test Of Last Week’s WTI Low of US$56.06/b. This Should Provide Great Buying Opportunity For Energy Investors.
Products in stock are being bought aggressively by global consumers as they buy what they think will cost much more in the coming months once tariffs hit. Auto lots for new and used cars, electronic products and imported goods are seeing the strongest interest. Tariff negotiations between the US and over 75 countries are progressing […]
April 9, 2025 | Climactic Sell-off For The General Stock Market Nearly Over. Energy Stocks At Bargain Levels. BUY!!!
I will be on this week’s MoneyTalks show with host and friend Victor Adair (Michael is on holiday) The roller coaster markets and specifically the energy sector will be the topics. This should be an interesting conversation that you may want to listen to. Go to MoneyTalks.com. The tariff war is now on (China now […]
April 2, 2025 | Weaker US Consumption Leads To 6.2Mb Increase In Commercial Crude Stocks. WTI Expected To Fall Below US$67/b.
While the US federal government cuts its employee count sharply in recent weeks the private sector is adding jobs at a fast pace. Today the ADP report showed private sector jobs rose 155,000 in March above the 120,000 forecast. Professional and business services added 57,000 workers, Financial services 38,000 (tax season ramp up), manufacturing 21,000 […]
March 26, 2025 | US 25% Tariff On Venezuelan Oil Lifts WTI To US$70/b.
President Trump is on the warpath against Venezuela and Iran. Regarding Venezuela he introduced a 25% tariff on any country buying its oil and on that country’s goods sold in the US, if they buy crude from the country after April 2nd. For China with a current tariff of 20% this goes up to 45% if not […]
March 13, 2025 | WTI Prices Lift As US Consumption Rises 5.1% Last Week.
President Trump freaked out stock markets with his on-off switch of new tariffs and threats against the US’s key trading partners. Canada is getting the brunt of these social media attacks. Trump threatens, then trade negotiators from both sides get to work on the details and persuade Trump to relent and there are reverses in […]
March 5, 2025 | Significant Decline in Crude Oil has Triggered a New Buy Signal
President Trump teased the markets last week with misdirection of when he planned to put on his tariffs. He mentioned early April to add stiff tariffs to China, Mexico and Canada and then the next day changed again. We hit all three on Monday March 3rd with various high tariffs. This shocked the stock markets […]
February 26, 2025 | WTI Breaches US$69/b. A New Energy Sector BUY Signal Should Occur in March
In early April we will see if President Trump is going to add stiff tariffs to Mexico and Canada and others around the world. It appears that he is using the hammer against his closest neighbours and then taking the plan against Europe and the rest of the world with trade surpluses with the US. […]
February 12, 2025 | US Total Consumption Falls While Commercial Crude Stocks Rise
President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu have given Hamas until noon on Saturday to release all remaining hostages (alive and the bodies of the dead) as Hamas has not met the phase one conditions. If the release does not happen then Trump’s ‘All hell is going to break out’ could escalate the fighting in the […]
February 5, 2025 | WTI Crude Oil Falls Below US$72/b As Trump Tariffs Get Delayed For Now. If WTI Falls Below US$70/b We May See New BUY Signal Triggered
President Trump used his Tariff threats against Mexico and Canada to get support in the battle to keep fentanyl and illegal immigrants outside of the US. Mexico’s team found the right solution of adding 10,000 National Guard soldiers to lock down the border and plan aggressive moves against the cartels. They also accepted Trump’s remain […]
January 29, 2025 | President Trump’s Tariff Agenda Weighs Heavily On Canadian Energy Sector
President Trump moved quickly to show he meant business with his Tariff’s. Colombia’s leftist President would not let US planes land in his country with deported criminals that were his citizens. President Trump threatened 25% tariffs immediately and 50% a week later. This would have severely hurt the Colombian economy which exports crude oil and […]
January 22, 2025 | WTI Falls >US$3/b Over The Last Week As Markets Await Trump Tariff Decisions
Outgoing President Biden made some last minute questionable pardon decisions that caused a distaste as he exited the stage. Were these individuals (family, J6 committee members and staff or Dr. Fauci, etc.) really guilty or was it to save them from Congressional testimony. Putting the past behind would be the best for America as it […]
January 15, 2025 | Bidens New Sanctions On Russia Lift Crude Prices >10% In One Week. Expect Reversal Once Trump Takes Office
The Biden administration leaves next week but continues its scorched earth plan to make Trump’s taking over power difficult. The White House continues to spend whatever funds authorized by Congress and that the President can spend under Presidential authority before Inauguration Day. The result may be that the incoming administration comes in with a run […]
January 8, 2025 | US Crude Oil Inventory Build Lowers WTI Price – Correction Underway
The Biden administration is leaving in two weeks and the White House continues to spend whatever funds authorized by Congress and that the President can spend under Presidential authority before Inauguration Day. The result may be that the incoming administration comes in with a run rate of a US$3T+ deficit and all Biden’s favourite programs […]
December 31, 2024 | Next Decline In Crude Prices Below US$68/b Should Trigger A New Long Term BUY Signal For The Sector
The Biden administration is leaving in three weeks and they continue to spend all the funds authorized by Congress and that the President can spend under Presidential authority. The result may be that the incoming administration comes in with a run rate of a US$3T+ deficit and all Biden’s favourite programs (climate, more government hiring […]
December 26, 2024 | Next Decline In Crude Prices Should Trigger A New Long Term BUY Signal For The Sector.
The official US President Joe Biden is not being seen and his vacuum is being filled by President elect Trump and his entourage led by Elon Musk (seen by Democrats as either the President or Trump’s Prime Minister). Biden lieutenants are looking for new ways to degrade or demean Trump before he takes office. However […]
December 18, 2024 | The Energy Sector Is Closing In On A Major BUY Signal In The Coming Weeks. More Bargains Are Appearing Daily
Canada’s political circus and slowing economy has dragged the C$ to below US$0.70 (now US$0.6980). It would not surprise me to see it fall to the low of US$0.68 seen in early 2020 or the same level seen in early 2016. Our worst low from the data going back to 1980 was US$0.6186 in early […]
November 28, 2024 | Crude Oil Retreats US$2/b On Israel/Hezbollah Ceasefire.
President elect Trump is moving quickly on his tariff plan with a threat on social media to tax Canada and Mexico 25% and add 10% to China tariffs. His argument is that he needs support on keeping drugs out of the US and to stop the migrant invasion. If his need was economic he would […]
November 21, 2024 | Crude Oil War Premium Expands As Ukraine Fires Longer Range US Missiles Into Russia
President elect Trump is moving quickly to nominate his cabinet full of loyalists that want to reign in the size and power of the perceived swamp in Washington. Many of his nominees are being readily accepted but one for Attorney General is getting widespread condemnation. He has nominated strong people for State, Defence, HHS, Interior […]
November 7, 2024 | US & China Energy Consumption Falls. We See WTI Declining Below US$68/b In The Coming Weeks
The Fed meeting ended today and the expected 25 BP cut was announced. I would keep an eye on the 10-year US Treasury now at 4.43%. It was down to 3.60% in mid-September. The high for 2024 has been 4.74% in April. If we exceed 4.74% then the Fed may be boxed in from further […]
October 24, 2024 | Large US Inventory Build And Weaker Consumption Pull WTI Down Over US$1/b On The Day.
With less than two weeks left until the US elections the US stock market is gyrating and looks heavy to me. It is fighting the uncertainty of two different visions for America going forward and US interest rates have been climbing on the fears of inflation reigniting and debt crowding (too much borrowing for the […]