ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
August 29, 2024 | Hunt: Economic Review and Outlook August 2024
In this episode, Dr. Hunt explains that non-farm payrolls overshot by five standard errors, making it the worst miss since a 9 standard one for 2009, during the GFC recession, and marking another bureaucratic failure. According to Dr. Hunt, the reported overshoot of 818,000 was based on an internal seasonally adjusted series, but based on […]
August 29, 2024 | Recession Watch: Deep-Discount RVs, Worst-Ever Stock Market Breadth, Frozen Housing
Let’s start with the concept of “big toys.” These are things like boats, jet skis, and RVs that people (okay, guys) tend to buy after they’ve had a few good years and conclude that job security and rising pay are now guaranteed for life. Because this hubris peaks near the end of expansions, spiking demand […]
August 28, 2024 | Crude Oil Retreats More Than US$5/b As War Premium Shrinks. WTI Breach Of US$70/b Likely In September
The war premium for crude oil has shrunk over US$5/b (from US$80.16/b in early August to US$74.80/b at our last look today) as only Iran’s proxies have attacked Israel and the US/Qatar/Egypt continue to discuss with Hamas a ceasefire and release of the remaining hostages (both dead and alive). President Biden and his surrogates continue […]
August 28, 2024 | China Ramps up Exports to Offset Weakness at Home
As China’s real estate bubble continues to implode, the government has directed Chinese banks to shift lending from real estate to Chinese industry, including manufacturing firms. At the same time, 99% of publicly listed Chinese companies now disclose some form of government subsidy, according to the Kiel Institute, a German think tank. China is spending […]
August 28, 2024 | Make America Healthy Again
I had been pleading for RFK to join Trump’s team as Attorney General as it is the most powerful position in Washington, providing Kennedy absolute immunity, AND he can clear out the swamp. Kennedy joined Trump’s team but his position has not been announced. However, Kennedy said his main goal in joining Trump is to […]
August 27, 2024 | The Truth About The Democrat’s $5 Trillion Tax Increase
The Democrats support always raising taxes that amount to robbing people with laws. They NEVER learn that Marxism has failed EVERY single time it has been tried. They do not give a damn about our country, our future, or retaining our culture. They are outright liars when it comes to claiming it is misinformation […]
August 27, 2024 | Fed Cuts in Response to Weakening Employment
Rosenberg Research President David Rosenberg joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss his economic models, what’s happening in today’s economy, and much more. Here is a direct video link. The 21.3% increase in US unemployment since 2022 is a degree of change only seen during the past 12 recessions since 1948. But, sure, maybe this time […]
August 27, 2024 | Inflation Chronicles: The Aristocracy Decrees That Peasants Will Sleep In Parking Lots
I have a dog who wakes up with the sun and immediately wants a nice long hike. Over the years, he’s trained me to accept his schedule, so at the crack of dawn we drive to one of a dozen or so nearby trails that he counts as his territory. One of our regular hikes […]
August 27, 2024 | Is this the Peak?
The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose to another record high in June. Is this the peak for US national home prices? Not yet – which is why I put the “Bull” back in the box on Page 10 of my July 2024 Timing Letter. Be patient folks. The bear is coming.
August 26, 2024 | Just a Hunch
Happy Monday Morning! For an overly indebted Canadian household sector grappling with rising interest payments, there was a lot to be pleased with this week. Canada’s CPI inflation came in at a breezy 2.5% in July. The deceleration was broad-based and marked the seventh consecutive month of headline rates running within the central bank’s target […]
August 26, 2024 | Pavel Durov Arrested by France To Kill Telegram
We are headed into 2032, and every day that passes brings another step closer to revealing what I have warned about: this last 8.6-year wave will become the most authoritarian as the government realizes it is losing control. The latest was to arrest Pavel Durov because he created Telegram, which is free speech, with […]
August 25, 2024 | Unemployment, Inflation and The Fed’s Choice
There was an historically large revision to the unemployment data this week, which was even worse than the headline when you dig into the actual numbers. On top of that, there is some “behind the numbers” data on inflation, which is typically not talked about, that will have a big impact on the Fed decision, […]
August 25, 2024 | Have the Democrats Reversed the American Dream?
Before the evolution of the Industrial Revolution, Social Mobility truly did not exist. More often, one tended to follow in the footsteps of their family. Farmers remained on the farm just as those in the various skilled trades remained in those guilds. This tended to be true even from ancient times before Rome became […]
August 24, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for August 24, 2024
Powell says the time has come to begin cutting interest rates Markets were expecting Powell to announce that it was “time” to start cutting rates (to lessen the downside risks to employment – the other leg of the Fed’s dual mandate), but the “unequivocally dovish” tone of his Jackson Hole announcement surprised markets. Small caps […]
August 24, 2024 | ‘Easy Money’ Boom to Bust
The same ‘easy money’ policies that enabled excessive spending and mal-investment in real estate fuelled a boom and bust now unfolding in the venture capital and start-up space, as well. This has broader implications for asset prices, lenders, investment, jobs and the economy at large. See, Start-up failures rise 60% as founders face hangover from the […]
August 24, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 24th 2024
The Bottom Line Responses to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole comments triggered significant buying in North American equity markets on Friday. According to Powell, “The time has come to adjust our restrictive monetary policy”. His comments implied that the FOMC likely will start to lower its Fed Fund Rate at its next meeting on […]
August 23, 2024 | RFK Endorses Trump & Will Join His Cabinet
COMMENT: Congratulations. You are the only one who has been pushing this for months. What position will he take in Trump’s Cabinet? FK ANSWER: I want to thank everyone for all of their support. I may have been the first behind this issue. But this is not merely because I said so. RFK was only 6 […]
August 23, 2024 | About That: Record Developer Insolvencies in Canada
Over the last year, more than 200 real estate developments in Canada became insolvent. Andrew Chang explains why, at a time of high demand for housing, a growing number of projects are falling through. Here is a direct video link.
August 23, 2024 | A Trump or Harris Win Could Lead To Very Different Outcomes
The U.S. election is less than 80 days away. The race is a dead heat, but only one of them will win and the impact on markets and the economy may be very different depending on who wins control of the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate. Will a Trump or Harris […]
August 22, 2024 | Trump Explains Why the Establishment HATES Him
@dudetv Theo Von had donald Trump on his podcast #theovon #foryou #foryoupage #trump #funny ♬ original sound – DUDE ✓ We already know why the establishment hates Donald J. Trump. Socrates predicted a third party candidate would win the 2016 US Presidential Election. A Democrat turned Republican, Trump does not stand with either party as […]
August 22, 2024 | Toronto Condos Aren’t Selling
Mortgage rates are historically average today, but too high prices and insufficient household income levels remain a problem. Welcome to a buyer’s market without buyers. Condo sales in the GTA are down, according to the latest data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, but the number of condos on the market is up. With […]
August 22, 2024 | Inflation in One Lesson
The high cost of living is the #1 financial problem for Americans today – and Milton Friedman’s explanation for inflation is probably close to the mark. In this 39 second video, Friedman claims that too much government spending and too much govt money creation is what causes inflation. “Consumers don’t produce inflation. Producers don’t produce […]
August 21, 2024 | A World Priced In Gold
Pretend, for a moment, that it’s 1971 and you’re President Richard Nixon (admittedly disturbing fantasies, but bear with me). You face the perennial government income/outflow dilemmas, and other countries, noting your struggle, are trying to cash their dollars in for your limited pile of gold bars. But this time around you don’t cave and “close […]
August 21, 2024 | Extreme Over-Valuations Suggest Years of Negative Returns
At 35x the average of the past decade’s earnings, adjusted for inflation, the S&P 500 basket of stocks is the third most expensive since 1871 (CAPE, in blue below, versus long-term interest rates in red, courtesy of Shillerdata.com). It is pricier than at the 1929 secular peak and more than twice the long-term median of 16x […]
August 21, 2024 | The Propaganda Behind Crypto
Now all we hear is how banks are suddenly investing in things like BITCOIN. The propaganda is just stunning, for it has once again proven that Julius Caesar was right more than 2000 years ago, and nothing has ever changed. Things like BITCOIN are a religion, and that is the problem. It would be […]