ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
January 5, 2025 | The Stale US Real Estate Market
Home sales in the US rose to a four-year high after rising 12.1% YoY, according to a new Redfin report. As I stated, we are entered a buyer’s market in May of 2024 in line with the ECM. Gone are the days of bidding wars and skipped inspections. Home inventory has picked up significantly […]
January 5, 2025 | It’s Time to Tune Out Wall Street’s Siren Song
The party is over, or so says the chart above. It is a long-term picture of the E-Mini S&Ps, and it shows the futures rolling down after touching a 6136 target that has been nearly five years in coming. Actually, it has taken nearly 16 years to get there since the longest bull market in […]
January 5, 2025 | A Controversial Start
It was an amazingly short week, punctuated by making 20 gallons of chili, serving almost 300 of my neighbors, and then recovering the next day, which didn’t leave a lot of time for in-depth analysis and forecasts. I’m sure you will be happy with the shortened letter as we cover some of the main events […]
January 4, 2025 | Mexico 2025
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I want to thank you for your work. It is refreshing to read a non-biased analysis of our country. I do not say this to flatter you. I am honestly appreciative of your work and independence in the age where everything is fake news here, too, in Mexico. The peso has weakened […]
January 4, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for January 4, 2025
Will the stock market’s “Trump Bump” be sustained? The S&P sold off ahead of the November 5th election, rallied on election day (circle on the chart), gapped sharply higher the day after the election, and then rallied to record highs in early December. The market drifted sideways near all-time highs for ten trading sessions in early December […]
January 4, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday January 4th 2025
The Bottom Line Technical signs of a short term bottom were recorded by U.S. and Canadian exchange indices last week. TSX Composite Index has started to outperform the S&P 500 Index, typical for this time of year.
January 3, 2025 | US Credit Card Defaults Reach 14-Year High
Credit card defaults in the US skyrocketed by 50% in the past year. Credit card defaults reached $46 billion in the first nine months of 2024, a level not seen since 2010. The cost of living has simply surpassed manageable levels for the majority of households. Americans are feeling the impact of inflation and compounding […]
January 3, 2025 | Why are China’s Youth Boycotting Pensions?
A massive population followed by 36 years of a one-child policy (1980 to 2016) magnified the demographic strains building in China. Still, similar generational flashpoints are growing in most developed countries today. Compromise, fresh thinking and more efficiency/less waste are necessary. China’s pension system is in danger of running out of money in a decade. […]
January 3, 2025 | A Very Reliable Recession Indicator is Flashing Red
Among the several U.S. recession indicators warning of trouble to come, this might be the best one to watch. Yield curve inversion sounds a bit wonky, but it is straightforward. The yield curve on government bonds is derived from the different interest rates on the short, medium and long-term maturities plotted on a graph. The […]
January 2, 2025 | Retail Closures in US Hit Pandemic Levels
Over 6,481 retailers have closed their doors since the beginning of the new year, according to data from Coresight Research in November, but that figure is expected to reach 7,327, marking a 57.8% increase in closures since 2023. During the pandemic, closures exceeded openings by 180 stores in 2020, with the gap widening in 2021 […]
January 2, 2025 | Blinken Interfering Romanian Elections
The American NEOCONS are interfering in elections, as always. Blinken ran off to Romania like Biden in Ukraine in July 2014, all to overturn the election in Romania, where the people voted against the war, and Blinken insisted Russia hacked the election. This guy will not be satisfied until he drenches Europe in the […]
January 2, 2025 | Head & Shoulders Pattern Forms – Key Market Moves Ahead This Friday
As of January 2, 2025, the much anticipated Santa Claus rally is failing to materialize. The S&P 500 heat map painted another grim picture, with most sectors in the red. However, Nvidia and Meta managed to post solid gains today, while the oil sector continued to show some resilience. Outside of those and a few […]
December 31, 2024 | Next Decline In Crude Prices Below US$68/b Should Trigger A New Long Term BUY Signal For The Sector
The Biden administration is leaving in three weeks and they continue to spend all the funds authorized by Congress and that the President can spend under Presidential authority. The result may be that the incoming administration comes in with a run rate of a US$3T+ deficit and all Biden’s favourite programs (climate, more government hiring […]
December 31, 2024 | Recession Watch: Broke Consumers, Tanking Houses
The money Americans saved during the pandemic is gone. And for many, that now means borrowing to make ends meet. Credit card debt set to hit record levels as consumer holiday spending rises (CNBC) – Heading into the holidays, many Americans were already saddled with record-breaking credit card debt. And yet, consumer spending is set to reach […]
December 31, 2024 | Home Builders Report Biggest Spike in Unsold Homes in a Decade
Home builders across America like Lennar and DR Horton are issuing massive warnings about the US Housing Market in 2025. Most recently, Lennar signaled a big decline in revenue YoY and a huge pile-up of homes for sale. Housing markets like Florida, Texas, and Arizona are most in the cross-hairs of this home-builder downturn. Access […]
December 31, 2024 | NATO & Invoking Article 5
COMMENT: Martin, I must admit, I have never read NATO article 5 until this morning while reading your post from yesterday. Looking at the actual wording, it seems to me that the whole article revolves around one little word, namely “it”. In this case, it refers to each NATO member nation in the case […]
December 31, 2024 | The Future’s Uncertain and The End is Always Near
“The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it’s profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way and you will see the […]
December 30, 2024 | The Second US State to Tax Fossil Fuel Companies
New York state has enacted a bill to extort fossil fuel companies in the name of climate change. Governor Kathy Hochul believes the bill will generate $75 billion in funds for the state over the next 25 years, which she claims will be used to fight climate change. Why would any energy company want to operate out […]
December 30, 2024 | Santa Missing as S&P 500 Trends Lower
So far, the much-anticipated Santa Claus rally has failed to materialize, and time is running out for a year-end market boost. The S&P 500 heat map painted another grim picture, with most sectors deep in the red. However, Nvidia managed to eke out a slight gain, and the oil sector showed some resilience. Outside of […]
December 29, 2024 | Art of the Collapse, January 2025
December produced a lot of surprises. President Biden pardoned his son…for an oddly specific period of time: United Health, a previously obscure insurance company, became a hot topic: Frustration about American health care produced a French Revolution-style path to popularity: Luigi Mangione To Host Next Week’s Episode Of ‘SNL’ (Babylon Bee) – In a move intended […]
December 29, 2024 | Live Free and Don’t Die
As I said last week, I am working on a book outlining five different theories on historical cycles and how they all seem to “climax” around 2030. I’m also very concerned that around that time (if not before), we will see the bond market begin reacting to the increasingly large national debt. I came across […]
December 29, 2024 | My Predictions for 2025? You Don’t Want to Know.
I’m making no bold predictions for 2025, since getting it right in these way-too-interesting times is like trying to guess when a ticking time bomb will explode. When it does, the shrapnel will pop an economic bubble so pumped with folly, greed and hubris that only a Wall Street shill or a madman could believe […]
December 29, 2024 | Gold Clause & CBDC
QUESTION: Regarding CBDC, will they convert all the savings/cash in your bank account, will they convert everything in your brokerage accounts (all stocks etc.) will they go after gold and silver you have in storage (Brinks, for example)? KS ANSWER: Everything will be converted to the new CBDC. The money in your bank account is already just […]
December 28, 2024 | Canada Moving for a NO CONFIDENCE Vote to Throw Out Trudeau
The C$ is poised to finally elect a Yearly Sell Signal (Bearish Reversal) warning that Canada may not bottom out until 2026. Even if Trudeau is removed from office, will that prevent the Decline & Fall of Canada into 2026? We will deal with these questions and more in our annual report on Canada for […]
December 28, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday December 28th 2024
The Bottom Line Equity indices around the world bounced from short term deeply oversold levels last week, led by Far East markets. Economic News This Week December Chicago PMI released at 9:45 AM EST on Monday is expected to improve to 42.8 from 40.2 in November. November U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EST […]