July 28, 2025 | Hoisington Q2 2025 Review and Outlook

Hoisington Management’s 2025 Second Quarter Review and Outlook is available here. At his June 18 press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell referred to tariffs as inflationary. Hoisington points out that this is only the first-round effect: Second, third, and later-round effects also come into play, causing the quantity demanded and price to decrease for the […]

July 27, 2025 | The Schema Frequency

QUESTION: Marty, they call you the legend since you have been calling markets and trends for decades. It is not hard to see that you are perhaps the greatest trader of all time. You are famous for not calling the 1987 Crash, but the very day of the low, you called the low and said […]

July 27, 2025 | Uncertainty Squared

Many people yearn for a simpler life. Ironically, that’s the one thing we’re almost guaranteed not to get. Technology keeps shifting the ground beneath us, mostly for the better, but also creates complications for businesses and individuals. The rules, especially from the government, seem to keep shifting, too. Everything around us just gets more and […]

July 27, 2025 | AI Profits Nowhere in Sight

Although the biggest players in the tech world have sunk trillions of dollars into AI research and development, none of them have made a dime. Will they ever? That’s a reasonable question, considering AI’s potential to change the world remains highly speculative. The investment frenzy continues to gain momentum nonetheless, recalling the South Sea Bubble of the […]

July 26, 2025 | Debt & War

Many have been writing in about the FT’s article on the UK surpassing China as the 2nd largest holder of US debt. While they understand I have laid out that ever since the Biden Administration that was in the hands of the Neocons began threatening China with war over Taiwan, and in the aftermath of […]

July 26, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for July 26, 2025

Markets are not expecting RISK! The leading global equity indices are at or near all-time highs. The S&P is up ~33% from the April lows, the NAZ is up ~42%. (NVDA is up >100%.) (Open interest in the S&P futures market fell to an 18-year low this week. Perhaps because one S&P futures contract is now […]

July 26, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 26th 2025

The Bottom Line Here comes equity market volatility! Lots of market moving news impacting North American equity markets this week including:  FOMC and Bank of Canada’s decisions on interest rates on Wednesday. No changes in U.S. and Canadian administered rates are expected, but traders will watch closely for potential timing for future rate reductions […]

July 25, 2025 | Lofty Valuations for Tesla are at Risk

Tesla: Lofty Valuation, Slipping Fundamentals Tesla still carries a sky-high valuation — more than 100 times its projected profits. That kind of multiple has only shown up a handful of times in history, and only for a few companies. So, do the fundamentals support this kind of price? Let’s take a look. Tesla hit a […]

July 25, 2025 | Trucker Convoy Lawyer Debanked

Banks have the ability to debank customers at a moment’s notice. Canada successfully weaponized its banks against the people during the Trucker Convoy, a peaceful protest demanding the right to bodily autonomy during the COVID-19 vaccine mandates. Lawyer Eva Chipiuk, who represented the Trucker (Freedom) Convoy, received notice from the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) […]

July 24, 2025 | Japan’s Bond Market Crisis Intensifies – Has BOJ Finally Lost Control?

Japan, with its highest in human history per capita government debt, has been an accident waiting to happen for a long time. But somehow, it has always managed to slip out of whatever trap the financial markets set for it. Until now? Japanese interest rates have been rising, increasing government interest costs and leading traders […]

July 24, 2025 | Klarman on Finding Value and Maintaining Discipline

A world focused on selling us investment products and ideas spends little time defining sell or aversion rules. If someone tells you what they own or would buy, ask them when they would sell it. Most haven’t thought that far; they ride price cycles up and down with no plan to protect capital from drawdowns. […]

July 24, 2025 | China Continues to Offload US Treasuries

  China has been offloading its US Treasury holdings for years. Once the top holder of US debt, China cut its US Treasury holdings for the third consecutive month this May. Total holdings have fallen to $756.3 billion from $757.2 billion in April, according to the US Treasury, marking the lowest debt held since May […]

July 23, 2025 | WTI Weakens As New EU Sanctions On Russia Lack Effectiveness. Crude Likely To Breach US$60/b In Coming Weeks.

Summary: President Trump has announced a trade deal with Japan opening the country to US sales of cars, trucks, rice and other agricultural food stuff. In return for a 15% tariff on Japanese exports (down from 25%) Japanese companies etc., plan on investing US$550B in the US. Importing US rice will alienate protected rice farmers. […]

July 23, 2025 | Meme-Stock Craze, Season Two

The 2023–2024 rate hikes and bear market wipeouts tamped down rampant retail speculation. But in 2025, rate cut expectations, along with AI-inspired price rebounds year to date, have reignited animal spirits. ChatGPT astutely observes that “Day trading’s resurgence may also reflect disillusionment with traditional investing timelines and frustration with affordability/inflation.”  In other words, the masses are […]

July 23, 2025 | Cash Accepted Here – Payment Choice Act

  Senators Kevin Cramer (R-ND) and John Fetterman (D-PA) have introduced bipartisan legislation, the Payment Choice Act, which would require businesses to accept cash payments. Money is merely the medium of exchange that someone is willing to accept for goods or services. Businesses across America have inadvertently contributed to the push toward a cashless society […]

July 22, 2025 | Institutions Decreasing Real Estate Purchases

  Investors continue to snap up residential properties, as real estate has evolved into an investment class of its own. New reports show that between 2020 and 2023, investors were responsible for 18.5% of home purchases. In the first three months of 2025, investors composed 27% of all residential properties, marking the highest share in […]

July 21, 2025 | The Great Pivot

Happy Monday Morning! Last week we wrote a piece called The Only Game in Town, in which we argued CMHC has financed nearly 90% of all new rental construction in the country, up from just 5% in 2017. They have become the only game in town and the financial exposure was concerning in an environment where […]

July 21, 2025 | Grantham: Don’t Be Conned By Those Selling Shovels In The Gold Rush

The Next Twelve Months Price-to-Earnings ratio (NTM P/E, shown below courtesy of ISABELNET) is one of the historically relevant forward-looking valuation metrics that compares a company’s current share price to its projected earnings over the next 12 months. Today’s sky-high US equity valuations, highlighted in dark blue, are comparable only to the rare, infamous peaks of […]

July 21, 2025 | The Treaty of Versailles Part II?

  Vladimir Putin has 580 billion additional reasons not to end the war. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz entered office with a clear intent to usher Germany into World War III. Not only has Merz mobilized troops and the largest military spending package in modern European history, but he is now demanding that Russia pay reparations […]

July 20, 2025 | Tomorrow’s Job Market: DO NOT Learn To Code – Do Become a Mining Engineer

In late 2023, I posted an article on how to develop the skills necessary to get through a protracted supply chain disruption: Skill Stacking, Part 1: Handymen Will Inherit the Earth. But since then, the stakes have gotten even higher. A financial/supply chain crisis is still coming. But now AI is altering the job market in […]

July 20, 2025 | Interview: An Independent Alberta Matters

July 20, 2025 | Is Obama About to Get His Comeuppance?

The stock market continues to waft higher with the riskless predictability of loaded dice. DaBoyz have trained their firepower on just a few high-flyers, chiefly Microsoft and Nvidia, in order to squeeze the broad averages skyward with an absolute minimum of capital. I’ve explained here before in exhaustive detail how this carnival midway trick is […]

July 20, 2025 | Inflationary Confusion

If you listen to the media—both MSM and social media—it seems like everyone in the world wants lower interest rates. Historically low rates were the landscape for most of the last 15 years, and anyone who borrowed money enjoyed it. Savers, not so much, but the idea of going back to low mortgage rates, bank […]

July 19, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for July 19, 2025

The Trend Is Your Friend – summerweight edition! The S&P has rallied nearly 10X in the last 16 years. It is up ~3X from the covid lows five years ago. It’s up ~30% from the April 2025 “Liberation Day” lows. And this week, when the S&P fell ~100 points on “fresh news” that Trump was planning […]