ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
February 7, 2025 | Big Leverage Magnifies Boom and Bust
Human life is full of unforeseen risks every day. Unexpected events are the norm, not the exception. There’s no such thing as certainty. Only daily choices and habits are within our control. But that gives the disciplined a big advantage over the masses, who tend to careen helplessly from one crisis to another. Contrary to […]
February 7, 2025 | Elon Musk Will Not Meet His Deficit Cutting Targets
Elon Musk is wrong about how government deficits work. He is firmly in the camp that says that government budgets must be balanced because otherwise a government will go bankrupt. He compares the government deficit problem to a household spending crisis. Does Musk understand what he is getting into? Elon on X, formerly Twitter, has […]
February 7, 2025 | China Implements 15% Tariff on US Coal
China is hitting back with 15% tariffs on US coal. America sent 11.6 million tons of coal to China, with 6.46% of all US coal imports flowing into China. Climate zealots are cheering the move, and those on the far left are pleased that this will disproportionately hurt red states. The majority of the […]
February 6, 2025 | Health Prepping: Vitamin D Prevents Tooth Decay
Vitamin D is the gift that keeps on giving. It’s already known to prevent cancer, heart disease, and dementia. And according to new research, it also prevents and/or fixes cavities. Here’s an excerpt from a much longer article on the subject by Dr. Joseph Mercola: Remember that sharp pain while biting down on popcorn? Or the dreaded dentist visit […]
February 6, 2025 | Distributive Bargaining
Distributive bargaining is a competitive negotiation approach where one party aims to maximize its share from a limited pool of resources. This strategy is often called zero-sum negotiation, as the total amount of resources available remains constant. Some call this the win-lose method, as compromise is not the goal. David Honig, an attorney and adjunct […]
February 5, 2025 | Canadian Tariffs Delayed – WHY?
Canada has followed Mexico in a recent move to expand border security to temporarily delay tariffs. Justin Trudeau announced that $1.3 billion will go into a border plan, including new technology, equipment, and personnel. Trudeau said he will be appointing a Fentanyl Czar to oversee drug enforcement and will spend C$200 million on a […]
February 5, 2025 | WTI Crude Oil Falls Below US$72/b As Trump Tariffs Get Delayed For Now. If WTI Falls Below US$70/b We May See New BUY Signal Triggered
President Trump used his Tariff threats against Mexico and Canada to get support in the battle to keep fentanyl and illegal immigrants outside of the US. Mexico’s team found the right solution of adding 10,000 National Guard soldiers to lock down the border and plan aggressive moves against the cartels. They also accepted Trump’s remain […]
February 5, 2025 | Less Over-Valued Equities Do Not Equate to ‘Safe Haven’
Participating in a recent VRIC panel with my two favourite economists was fun, and I have included the video clip below. As the only money manager on the panel, I must add a caveat to David’s comments about the Canadian stock market being relatively cheaper than the U.S. That’s true, as I have noted many […]
February 4, 2025 | Canadian Insolvencies at 15-Year High and Rising
According to the latest Canadian Association of Insolvency and Restructuring Professionals, 2024 saw a 15-year high in Canadian business and consumer insolvencies—about 375 daily. The group expects pressure on companies and consumers to continue in 2025 amid threats from potential tariffs and mortgage renewals. See, Insolvencies in Canada rose 12.1% in 2024, led by business filings: […]
February 4, 2025 | Panama Aligns with the US Against China – Panama Exits BRI
Panama was presented with an ultimatum to control foreign Chinese influence in the Panama canal or face retaliatory measures. While retaliatory measures were not specified, the State Department said that Panama was violating the Treaty Concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal, and the US would move to protect itself. Secretary of […]
February 3, 2025 | Zelensky says 58% of Money from US is Missing
Zelensky is preparing for DOGE. We are going to need a new crop of conspiracy theories. They are all coming true one by one.
February 3, 2025 | Tariffs & Housing
Happy Monday Morning! We are now in the midst of a full blown tariff war. There’s plenty of smart economic commentary out there, so let’s get into it. According to BMO’s chief economist, Doug Porter, “Trump’s tariff hammer will come down hard on Canada’s economy. If the announced tariffs remain in place for one year, […]
February 3, 2025 | Art of the Collapse, February 2025
Making America fun to watch again… Transforming government with the stroke of a pen. (Sensitive readers should skip this one.) And in case anyone still needs to be reminded, never believe anything you haven’t personally witnessed:
February 3, 2025 | Starting Points Matter Most of All
How long the Trump bump will continue in stock prices is everyone’s guess. Still, great expectations increase room for disappointment, and nothing matters more to long-term investment returns than the level of fundamental valuation at the starting point. Donald Trump comes back to office astride extreme confidence and the most highly valued stock market of […]
February 3, 2025 | It’s a Big Club and You Ain’t in It
“The politicians are put there to give you the idea that you have freedom of choice. You don’t. You have no choice! You have OWNERS! They OWN YOU. They own everything. They own all the important land. They own and control the corporations. They’ve long since bought, and paid for the Senate, the Congress, the […]
February 2, 2025 | CalExit
COMMENT: My question is about your forecast that the separation of the United States would begin with California and that 2022 would be the turn in your model. Please explain how you came to the 2022 target and how this separation will develop. DVS ANSWER: The target 2022 was 172 years (2 x 8.6) […]
February 2, 2025 | Nvidia Breaks Support – Is a Tech-to-Commodities Shift Underway?
Here are two key charts to focus on this week. First, we examine the S&P 500 heat map, which highlights last week’s biggest losers—many of which were major tech stocks. Among them, Nvidia stood out as the biggest tech loser of the week. By now, the impact of DeepSeek on the AI modeling landscape is widely recognized. For […]
February 2, 2025 | Mainstream Media Muffle China’s Breakthrough
Bloggers were revved up when last week began, trumpeting a warning that China’s DeepSeek R1 threatened to crush America’s capital-intensive effort to lead the world in AI development. ZeroHedge was among the first to jump on the story. “The future of humanity is being decided as we speak,” wrote Mark Whitney. “This is a full-blown, […]
February 2, 2025 | Why DeepSeek Is Bullish for the World
“There are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen,” says a quote from Vladimir Lenin, who may have copied it from someone else. Regardless of origin, it is true and will be even more true as technology and even government changes faster. We may have just lived through such a week for the […]
February 1, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for February 1, 2025
THIS IS NOT A DRILL It was a hectic week in the markets, but two events were especially significant: 1) The spot S&P traded to all-time highs last Friday, January 25, but the S&P futures gapped lower Sunday afternoon and fell hard early Monday on the DeepSeek story (blue ellipse) and 2) The S&P rallied all week from […]
February 1, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday February 1st 2025
The Bottom Line Fourth quarter results released to date by S&P 500 companies have been impressive. They prompted analysts to raise their consensus fourth quarter earnings estimate for the S&P 500. On the other hand, analyst also lowered their consensus S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2025. Robust earnings growth is expected in 2025, but at […]
January 31, 2025 | Trump 2.0 is Destined to Fail
President Trump was inaugurated for the second time on last week. He is taking over the Presidency at an unusual time for the economy and financial markets. Trump has only a small chance of living up to the hype and expectations over his promise to Make American Great Again. Trump takes over when the U.S. […]
January 31, 2025 | The Casino Enters “Peak Complexity”
Finance hasn’t been simple for a long time. Starting more or less in the 1980s, traditional instruments like stocks and bonds were joined by futures, options, private equity, junk bonds, and bespoke derivatives like credit default swaps. “Quants” now build “black box” trading algorithms to arbitrage the relationships between these things, and clients place bets […]
January 31, 2025 | Hunt: Global Capacity Under-Utilization Leading Unemployment Higher
Hoisington Management’s Fourth Quarter 2024 Review and Outlook is now available at this link. Always worth a mull. Here’s the main takeaway: “…fundamental determinants of inflation indicate the prospects for slower price increases are even more significant than in any year since the late 1990s. In addition to the growing factory capacity glut and rising UR […]
January 31, 2025 | Democrats Vow to Take Fight Against Trump to the Streets
The Trump Administration rescinded the freeze on federal programs, vowing to eliminate woke agencies in the coming weeks. The Democrats have become outraged over the president’s numerous, swift measures to undo the damage caused under Biden. The left believes in democracy when it suits them. The Dems lost control of both chambers of Congress […]