ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
June 12, 2025 | Bitcoin Owners Hide Crypto Codes Etched on Metal Cards in 4 Continents
All the hype about cryptocurrencies being more secure than conventional currencies and banks. How safe, secure and practical does all of this sound? See, ‘Bitcoin Family’ hides crypto codes etched onto metal cards on four continents after recent kidnappings: The family’s new system involves splitting a single 24-word bitcoin seed phrase — the cryptographic key that […]
June 11, 2025 | World Bank Cuts Global Growth Outlook
The World Bank sharply cut its global economic growth forecast. It now projects the global economy to expand by 2.3% in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of 2.7% (below, courtesy of Bloomberg). This would mark the slowest rate of global growth, outside of a recession, since 2008. Growth is expected to recover modestly to […]
June 10, 2025 | Wise To Be Wary
Worried about tariff-inspired inflation, the US Federal Reserve has held its overnight target rate steady at 4.25 to 4.5% since December, and markets have walked back easing expectations to just two 25 basis point cuts by year-end. At the same time, businesses are warning that constantly shifting trade policies are hindering their ability to plan […]
June 9, 2025 | Bank of Canada Holds While The Economy Devolves
Canada’s unemployment rate has climbed to 7% from 6.2% a year ago, and up 210 basis points from 4.9% in June 2022 (chart below via The DailyShot). Excluding the pandemic, this is the highest unemployment rate since 2016 (Statscan report here). A 180-basis-point increase in the jobless rate over two years has historically been a […]
June 6, 2025 | Debt-Stressed Consumers Retrenching
Since June 2024, interest rates have trended down from a two-decade high, yet remain above the historically low levels seen during the pandemic. Approximately 1.2 million Canadian mortgages will renew in 2025, a vast majority (85%) of which were secured when the Bank of Canada’s key lending rate was at or below 1% compared with […]
June 5, 2025 | Job Losses Leaping
Slowly, then all at once…job losses ‘unexpectedly’ leaping across many sectors. Andy Challenger, Senior Vice President, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, shares his insights on the latest Challenger layoff report in the U.S. and what sectors were most impacted. Here is a direct video link.
June 4, 2025 | Dark Factories
The idea that re-shoring manufacturing will increase good-paying jobs in North America faces some challenges from automation. Corporations focus on profit margins, so where machines are more efficient than human labour, automation will win out. Factories have been transformed by automation, with robots now taking on a sizeable proportion of jobs once done by people […]
June 3, 2025 | Rising Stocks and Contracting Economies–Foreboding Financial Setup
China’s Caixin purchasing managers’ index unexpectedly fell in May to 48.3 (sub-50 signals contraction) as US tariffs took a toll on smaller exporters. The consensus had expected the gauge to improve, not worsen. At the same time, US manufacturing activity contracted further in May to the lowest level since November. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) purchasing managers’ index […]
June 2, 2025 | Hunt: The Economy is Weaker than Wall Street Suggests
It’s an especially confusing time for investors. On one hand, the US economy is showing signs of slowing, with a negative growth for Q1 GDP, and mounting evidence that many corporations and consumer households are feeling the pinch of higher borrowing costs. On the other hand, FOMO Is returning to the stock market as corporate […]
May 30, 2025 | DOGE Disappoints
As I feared, DOGE has drastically undershot its targeted spending cuts. It’s hard to reduce overhead without the political will to reduce corporate subsidies and reform entitlement programs in a meaningful way. At the same time, the masses want tax cuts. The math is not mathing. Elon Musk is done with the Department of Government […]
May 29, 2025 | Deteriorating Outlook Upping The Heat on Paused Bank of Canada
Today, we received further confirmation of Canada’s deteriorating labour market, with March payrolls falling 54,100 to a 10-month low, and a negatively revised 40,200 fewer jobs in February (Stats Can survey of employers, payrolls, and hours). Canada’s largest lender, Royal Bank, also disappointed with an earnings miss after setting aside $1.42 billion for loan losses […]
May 28, 2025 | Denmark Finds Courage to Act on Needed Entitlement Reform
Denmark raised its retirement age last week to 70 for Danes born in 1971 or later. Workers currently become eligible for the Danish equivalent of Social Security at age 67, which will go up steadily in the coming years. See: The New Retirement Age in Denmark is 70: This is the result of a reform passed […]
May 27, 2025 | Mean Reverting Prices are Contagious
During the pandemic, near-zero interest rates and government subsidies enabled excess consumption beyond sustainable means. That inflated the prices of most goods and assets while exacerbating wealth gaps between the old and young, as well as between the top ten percent and the rest. We are now in a mean reversion phase, and the downward […]
May 23, 2025 | Vacation Plans Shrink with Consumer Confidence
According to the University of Michigan’s preliminary May survey, the U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8, down from 52.2 in April. This marked the second-lowest reading in the survey’s nearly 75-year history, surpassed only by June 2022. The decline is attributed to heightened concerns over inflation and the economic impact of President Trump’s trade policies. Notably, 75% […]
May 22, 2025 | Yes, You Can Lose Money in Real Estate
In the ‘easy-money’ ultra-low rate era, there was a lot of demand from secondary property owners for recreation or renting to others. Most were over the age of 50. An increasing number will look to sell to lower overhead/upkeep and free up cash flow in retirement. The good news is that this will continue to […]
May 21, 2025 | Retail Gone Wild (Encore)
The S&P 500 risk premium—forward earnings yield minus the 10-year Treasury yield—is once again about zero (below since 2000, via The Daily Shot). Such dismal equity risk-reward prospects have only been seen once in the last quarter century and that was coming out of the 2000 bubble top. The large cap S&P 500 went on […]
May 20, 2025 | Summer of Discontent
In April, Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.9%, the highest since September 2021 and 210 basis points above the July 2022 cycle low of 4.8% (shown below since 1950). Beata Caranci, chief economist at TD Bank, expects a recession in the coming quarters and another 100,000 job losses by the fall. See, Canada’s economy […]
May 16, 2025 | Food and Energy Innovation are Here to Help
We recently completed rooftop solar, which allows us to run operations and vehicles on sunshine. Technology is here to improve efficiency and lower waste for all sectors of the economy—a much-needed bright spot ☀️. Smart food production powered by renewable energy is what productivity enhancement looks like. For the first time, a King City, Ont, greenhouse […]
May 15, 2025 | Housing Bust and Tariffs Hitting Highly Leveraged Economy
The spreading downturn in real estate is the typical and foreseeable mean reversion of the speculative mania that prevailed through the years of near-zero interest rates. The condo market in two of Canada’s big cities has taken a major downturn. CBC’s Nisha Patel breaks down three reasons why condos aren’t selling in the middle of […]
May 14, 2025 | Mayhem continues
A 90-day pause on embargo-style US-China trade tariffs has revived bullish spirits. The large-cap S&P 500 (black below), with its one-third weight in tech companies (“Magnificent Seven” companies in orange), has rebounded 18% since April 8—now flat year to date and -3.8% below the February high. The retail crowd is back at it, bidding the […]
May 13, 2025 | Canadian Unemployment Looking Even More Recessionary
The Canadian unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in April (from 6.7% in March). Outside of the 2020 COVID shutdown, this was the highest level since January 2017 and up 210 basis points from the July 2022 cycle low of 4.8%. This is a warning sign: in past cycles since 1953, we have been six months […]
May 12, 2025 | Housing Downturn Accelerates in April
TRREB is Canada’s biggest real estate board, covering the Greater Toronto Area (area codes 416 and 905, as shown below), which has the largest population concentration in Canada. TRREB just posted April numbers (here); year over year, single-family home sales were down 22%, and condo sales were down 30%. An hour or so in each […]
May 8, 2025 | Fed Sits Tight as Economic Hits Keep Coming
Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, as Chair Jerome Powell admitted he doesn’t know whether rising inflation or surging unemployment will hit hardest. In the meantime, indebted businesses and consumers feel the pressure of interest rates near multi-decade highs. A larger share of student loan balances are past due […]
May 7, 2025 | Trade-War Pain Spreading
China’s economy showed signs of damage from the trade war in April, with a drop in export orders and the weakest production at the country’s factories in more than a year. See, Beijing doesn’t want America to see its trade war pain Here is a direct video link. The impacts are evident in America, too. Port of […]
May 6, 2025 | Lacy Hunt: Five Recessionary Forces
Dr. Lacy Hunt, Chief Economist at Hoisington Investment Management, analyzes what he calls an economic “interregnum” where five convergent forces are aligning to depress growth. Dr. Hunt methodically explains how tariffs will ultimately prove deflationary rather than inflationary, why the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy is misplaced, how federal spending cuts are creating headwinds, why massive […]