ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
August 7, 2025 | Liberation Day 2.0?
Last night at midnight, goods from more than 60 countries and the European Union became subject to tariff rates of 10% or higher. Products from the EU, Japan and South Korea are taxed at 15%, while imports from Taiwan, Vietnam and Bangladesh are taxed at 20%. See the full list of U.S tariffs in place around […]
August 5, 2025 | Collapse in Job Creation
Canada’s seasonally adjusted job vacancy rate fell to 2.7% in May, down 10 basis points (bps) from April and -50 bps year over year, reaching an 8-year low, significantly below pre-pandemic levels (red shown below since 2015, courtesy of BMO and Better Dwelling.com, with the US job opening rate in blue). Official unemployment rates are lagging indicators, […]
July 31, 2025 | Consumers Under Pressure Across The Spectrum
As the US and Canadian central banks declined to offer monetary easing yesterday, consumer confidence measures are already below the levels recorded in the past nine recessions, including the periods surrounding 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic. A raft of recent data shows households under increasing financial stress across all income levels. […]
July 29, 2025 | Financial Sobriety is a Rare Superpower Over Time
Speculative trading indicators measure froth in financial markets and indicate when speculators—rather than fundamental investors—are dominating market behavior. As shown below, since 1995, the rebound in speculative measures over the past three months has been one of the sharpest on record, and in rare company with now infamous bubble tops in 1999-2000 and 2021. The […]
July 28, 2025 | Hoisington Q2 2025 Review and Outlook
Hoisington Management’s 2025 Second Quarter Review and Outlook is available here. At his June 18 press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell referred to tariffs as inflationary. Hoisington points out that this is only the first-round effect: Second, third, and later-round effects also come into play, causing the quantity demanded and price to decrease for the […]
July 24, 2025 | Klarman on Finding Value and Maintaining Discipline
A world focused on selling us investment products and ideas spends little time defining sell or aversion rules. If someone tells you what they own or would buy, ask them when they would sell it. Most haven’t thought that far; they ride price cycles up and down with no plan to protect capital from drawdowns. […]
July 23, 2025 | Meme-Stock Craze, Season Two
The 2023–2024 rate hikes and bear market wipeouts tamped down rampant retail speculation. But in 2025, rate cut expectations, along with AI-inspired price rebounds year to date, have reignited animal spirits. ChatGPT astutely observes that “Day trading’s resurgence may also reflect disillusionment with traditional investing timelines and frustration with affordability/inflation.” In other words, the masses are […]
July 21, 2025 | Grantham: Don’t Be Conned By Those Selling Shovels In The Gold Rush
The Next Twelve Months Price-to-Earnings ratio (NTM P/E, shown below courtesy of ISABELNET) is one of the historically relevant forward-looking valuation metrics that compares a company’s current share price to its projected earnings over the next 12 months. Today’s sky-high US equity valuations, highlighted in dark blue, are comparable only to the rare, infamous peaks of […]
July 17, 2025 | Staying Focused Through Noise
In a series of heart-stopping swings, since mid-December, the tech-heavy S&P 500 and Nasdaq are currently up 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively, while the US dollar (as measured by the DXY) has fallen 10% against major trading partners. The more economically sensitive Dow Jones Index is down 2% since December, while the S&P 600 (small-cap companies) […]
July 16, 2025 | Downcycles Bring Opportunity For Those Who Can Resist Consensus Views
Toronto home sales rose 8.1% in June, but were still 35% below the decade’s average; the average home sale price dropped 5.2% year-over-year to $1,151,600. Condo sales in Toronto have declined by 75% over the past three years (-37% in Vancouver) and are down 22% from June 2024; at the same time, new listings are […]
July 14, 2025 | The Great Unraveling Brings Pain and Remorse
If we had a loonie for every person who believed, “You can never lose money in real estate.” Unfortunately, many well-meaning older folks ignorantly aided and abetted younger folks into a massive housing bubble. Many are doing the same thing now with corporate securities markets back at historic highs. The masses are increasingly realizing and regretting capital […]
July 11, 2025 | Paid To Look The Other Way
Timeless perspective is offered in this segment…the more things stay the same. In this episode of The Real Eisman Playbook, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Gretchen Morgenson discusses her career in investigative journalism, focusing on the dark side of Wall Street, the AIG scandal, and the financial crisis. She highlights the role of private equity in modern […]
July 9, 2025 | Macro Updates for Dog Days of Summer 2025
Economist Lacy Hunt offers a sobering look at the long-term economic forces shaping the U.S. outlook—and why inflation might already be in retreat, even as the Federal Reserve stays cautious. He argues that we’re in the midst of a disinflationary trend driven by excessive debt, declining velocity of money, and the structural weakening of global […]
July 8, 2025 | Mindless Flows are Not Loss Protection
Vanguard founder and ETF pioneer, Jack Bogle, warned that if index funds came to own half of the U.S. stock market, it could lead to significant issues, like too much influence concentrated in just a few institutional owners, which he believed would be “a problem” for corporate governance and overall market function. According to the […]
July 7, 2025 | Financial Health is a Marathon
Toronto-area home sale prices dropped by 5.4% annually in June–the fifth consecutive year-over-year decline. While lethargy is glaring in condos, detached home sale prices fell the most, with a 6.5% year-over-year drop. The average Toronto June sale price of $1.01 million represented a 17% decline from the February 2022 peak of $1.21 million. Sales for […]
July 3, 2025 | Recession is Here?
David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes recession odds are higher than 2022 despite nobody expecting one, pointing to Fed staff forecasting 50% recession probability and the most downbeat Beige Book since 1980. Rosenberg criticizes Powell for calling the economy “solid” while real GDP has been negative sequentially in 2 of the past […]
July 2, 2025 | Chinese Economy Disappointed in June
Leland Miller, China Beige Book CEO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the state of China’s economy, impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations, how much leverage the country has over the U.S., and more. Here is a direct video link.
June 30, 2025 | Opportunity for Canada
Canada needs to build things the world wants. A Canadian car company is rolling in a zero-emission vehicle called ‘Project Arrow’. CTV’s Sean Leathong reports. Here is a direct video link. Also, see Donald Trump’s disdain for wind energy could create windfall for Nova Scotia: experts: New England states and New York have been leading development […]
June 27, 2025 | People with High Incomes Tend to Have the Highest Leverage
Many people believe that “rich people always have money.” What is typically overlooked is that people with higher incomes tend to have higher overhead and debt levels, and any savings they have are often invested in risky asset markets. This magnifies vulnerability to downturns in the economy, income, and stock market, eventually intensifying liquidation cycles. […]
June 26, 2025 | Sell-Side Noise Masks Extreme Financial Risk
Stock bulls cite prices back near all-time highs as a self-fulfilling prophecy for financial resiliency. After rebounding 22% since the April 8 lows, the S&P 500 is now +3.5% year to date and .90% below its February high. Another way to say this is that large-cap stocks have returned to extreme capital risk and overvaluation […]
June 25, 2025 | Households Burning Home Equity at Fastest Rate Since 2008
In a sign of financial stress, an increasing number of homeowners are withdrawing equity from their homes for cash to pay down other high-interest consumer loans and credit cards. Debt consolidation is cited as the top reason for people taking out Home Equity Lines of Credit. See, Should you use your home equity to pay off […]
June 24, 2025 | Rare Earth Recycling in Canada
This is the right idea…reduce waste, reuse, recycle. Ahmad Ghahreman, CEO of Cyclic Materials, discusses the plans to build a recycling plant in Ontario and the development of rare earth minerals in Canada. Here is a direct video link.
June 23, 2025 | Canada’s Cottage Collapse
The harsh math of recreational properties… costly consumption spending. ” Is it serving you and your family, or your ego?” Cottages were once a dream… but in 2025, they’re a financial nightmare. The harsh truth behind Canada’s cottage collapse. While prices are falling, affordability is still out of reach for many. A shocking 57% of […]
June 21, 2025 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
CBC News Network’s Weekend Business Panel takes on top stories of the week. Here is a direct video link.
June 19, 2025 | The Legacy of Zero Interest Rate Policy: Misallocated Resources
Interest-rate suppression experiments of central banks dominated the world from 2008 to 2022, incentivizing the misallocation of $trillions of resources, record debt, and uneconomical asset prices. Real estate — the most widely owned and leveraged asset in the world — is one of the most glaring and consequential hangovers, with many areas now drowning in […]