ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
July 19, 2026 | Maybe Central Banks Are Gold-Price Sensitive After All
For a while now, analysts (including this one) have been predicting that central banks will keep buying gold regardless of its price, thereby smoothing out the normal ups and downs in that market. But recent action implies that central banks do care about what they’re paying for gold — which, at this point in the […]
July 19, 2026 | Inflation Conundrums
Last week I noted the problems of sitting down with a blank screen and trying to figure out what to write. This week I have the opposite problem: I have well over 20 important research notes from various authorities about inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and interest rates. The challenge will be to summarize the most […]
July 19, 2026 | Bending Civilization Toward Zuckerworld
Pretty creepy, huh? Zuckerberg is so certain Ray-Ban spyglasses are the future that he has hired billionaire influencer Kylie Jenner to endorse them. Do we really crave having a world of information literally in our faces? We’re about to find out. A factory in Italy has been churning out Meta glasses by the millions, and […]
July 18, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for July 18, 2026
“People will believe the most preposterous stories, as long as the price keeps going up!” Bob Hoye Bobby has been a friend for ~50 years. I once introduced him at a conference as a great market historian who was actually “there” when the Tulip Bulb mania hit Holland in the 1630s. What I love about his “preposterous” quote […]
July 18, 2026 | The Documents Washington Never Wanted Release
The White House has now released a series of declassified election-integrity documents that the administration says expose what it describes as the largest compromise of American voter data in history. The release followed President Trump’s heated nationally televised address Thursday night, where he argued that China systematically acquired sensitive voter information during the 2020 election […]
July 18, 2026 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 18th 2026
The Bottom Line The “Summer Rally” for the S&P 500 Index and the TSX Composite Index normally between June 27th and July 17th came to an abrupt end on Thursday July 16th this year. The S&P 500 Index only gained 1.40% and the TSX Composite Index only added 1.3% during the “Summer Rally” season this […]
July 17, 2026 | Has Chuck Schummer Conspired with Netanyahu to Block Iran Peace before the Midterms?
I have received numerous emails asking if Chuck Schumer and the Democrats are attempting to frustrate Trump to prevent him from exiting the Iran War to influence the Midterms by refusing to sign the defense bill for the first time in history. The Democrats under Schummer are clearly trying to prolong the Iran war to […]
July 17, 2026 | The Heat is on El Nino
A perfect storm is building. El Niño has arrived early, global warming is amplifying its reach, and two active wars are straining food and energy supply chains simultaneously. For millions of people, the next eighteen months could be brutal. El Niño takes its name from the Spanish for the Christ child — Peruvian fishermen first […]
July 17, 2026 | U.S. Housing: It’s a Bust
My son is house-hunting in Tucson, AZ, and I’m watching with interest. Right now, that housing market is a strange combination of prices that peaked at around twice 2018 levels and recent, sometimes notable price cuts. A couple of representative Zillow graphics: It’s Nationwide According to Wolf Richter’s Wolf Street, this isn’t a localized trend. It’s now […]
July 16, 2026 | Rigging Elections
QUESTION: You previously stated that the 2020 election was rigged by the Neocons, and that they attempted the same in 2024 but failed due to a Panic Cycle and Directional Change. I’m now noticing what appears to be another Panic Cycle forming around the 2026 election. Looking further ahead, you’ve mentioned that 2028 could […]
July 16, 2026 | AI Abundance, Part 5: Meaning Beyond Work
From Scheerpost Discussions of artificial intelligence typically begin with the question, What happens when the machines take our jobs? For thousands of years, work has been the means by which we fed our families, earned our place in society, and gave structure to our lives. We have come to equate paid employment with identity. That […]
July 15, 2026 | Britain Wants to Control Your Algorithm
Britain is becoming one of the most aggressive governments in the Western world when it comes to policing opinions, regulating speech, and deciding what information its citizens should consume. Every year the excuse changes. It was terrorism. Then it became misinformation. Then hate speech. Now they have set their sights on YouTube itself because they […]
July 14, 2026 | Turkish FM Believes Israel is a Global Security Threat
For years, I have warned that analysts have been looking in the wrong direction. Everyone obsesses over Russia, China, Iran, or even North Korea, while ignoring one nation that has quietly been positioning itself to become the dominant regional power. That nation is Turkey. You cannot understand today’s geopolitical landscape unless you understand that the […]
July 13, 2026 | June USA Home Sales – Prices Rise and Buyers Back Out
Existing home sales in the US unexpectedly fell 2.4% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units, missing expectations for a summer increase. At the very same time, the median existing home price reached another all-time record of $440,600, marking the 36th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains. Sales are falling […]
July 12, 2026 | Economic Anomalies
Next month I will begin my 27th year of writing this letter. The way I write, how I come up with topics, when I write have all changed over time. But one thing is consistent: when I sit down to write there is a blank screen. Some weeks topics are obvious. Some weeks I scramble […]
July 11, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for July 11, 2026
Investment boom in America The AI capex boom is spreading throughout the economy, lifting many ships and is mildly inflationary. Stock indices, valuation metrics, earnings, and earnings expectations are near record highs, and the Q2 reporting season starts this week. Equity markets dipped on Tuesday and Wednesday as “hostilities” flared in the SOH, but once again, the […]
July 11, 2026 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 11th 2026
The Bottom Line The “summer rally” for the S&P 500 Index from June 27th until at least July 17th continues. Here comes a flood of second quarter earnings reports by major U.S. companies! Focuses this week are on reports released by money-center U.S. banks. Earnings and Revenue Consensus for S&P 500 Companies Source: www.factset.com Analysts […]
July 10, 2026 | The American Dream Now Comes with an $800 Monthly Car Payment
FOX Business reported that the average monthly payment for a new vehicle reached a record $770 during the first quarter of 2026, according to LendingTree’s analysis of Experian data. Lease payments climbed to $619 per month, while used vehicle payments reached $531. The average amount financed for a new vehicle rose to $43,925, and […]
July 10, 2026 | Xi Takes Revenge on Housing Speculators
Xi’s Revenge: How China’s Housing Speculators Lost Everything The great Chinese housing boom is officially a bust. Reaching its zenith in 2021, the residential market has declined for more than four years. Prices in major cities are down 40 percent from their peak, and in some markets as much as 50 percent. The demand for […]
July 9, 2026 | The Reason Socialism Appeals to the Youth
The establishment continues to dismiss the growing support for socialism among young people as nothing more than college indoctrination. That is only part of the story. If we refuse to understand why an entire generation is losing faith in capitalism, then we are destined to repeat the very mistakes that gave rise to socialism throughout […]
July 9, 2026 | Japan: Two Bad Trends Accelerate Simultaneously
This newsletter has been covering Japan’s descent into financial chaos since 2023. See: How Far Can The Yen Fall Before Japan Goes Bankrupt? How a Country Goes Bankrupt, In 10 Steps Japan Enters Its Death Spiral Next Year’s Wild Card: The Yen Carry Trade Now the death spiral is accelerating. These Trends Don’t Go Together […]
July 8, 2026 | Dallas Fed Examines Biden’s Open Border Policy Fallout
The politicians insisted for years that the border crisis was somehow good for the economy. They claimed millions of illegal migrants would solve labor shortages, keep inflation down, and somehow make America stronger. Now even a Federal Reserve study is acknowledging what ordinary Americans have been living through every single day. The damage was real, […]
July 7, 2026 | US Debt Exceeds 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II
The United States has crossed a milestone that Washington has spent decades pretending would never arrive. Federal debt held by the public has now exceeded 100% of GDP for the first time since the aftermath of the Second World War. According to the latest government data, debt held by the public reached approximately $31.27 trillion while the […]
July 7, 2026 | Health Prepping: Major Longevity Milestones… But Be Careful
Most of us who are no longer young would love to go back to physiological 30 and stay there. Which is why supplements and nutrition books are such big sellers. So far, alas, nothing has added noticeably to our allotted “threescore years and ten”. But that might be about to change. The work coming out […]
July 6, 2026 | Canada Taps Germany for Naval Demand
Canada has officially selected Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) as the preferred builder for a new fleet of 12 submarines. The program is expected to cost roughly C$60 billion, making it one of the largest military procurements in Canadian history. Prime Minister Mark Carney is making the announcement just before the NATO summit, where […]