ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
October 31, 2025 | The Bank of Canada Cuts Again But Fails To Address Housing
The Bank Cuts Again — But the Real Problem Is Housing The Bank of Canada trimmed its policy rate by 25 basis points this week to 2.25 percent, pulling Canada’s official rate well below the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 3.75 percent — also lowered this week. But don’t expect these cuts to save the economy from a recession. In […]
October 31, 2025 | How Will AI Pay Our Bills?
The US central bank cut its policy rate on Wednesday, and US mortgage rates rose. Layoffs are surging, and loan delinquencies are driving a repo boom not seen since the 2009 recession. See, We Spent the Night Shift With the Repo Man, Who Is Busier Than Ever: An estimated 1.73 million vehicles were repossessed last year, the […]
October 31, 2025 | Known vs Unknown
QUESTION: Since you are probably the first to develop a real AI computer decades before anyone heard of AI, what is your opinion of the future of AI? You have been silent on this trend. ANSWER: Look, there is a difference between the short-term from a trading perspective and the long-term. ChatGPT is a […]
October 30, 2025 | How a Fed Overhaul Could Eliminate the Federal Debt Crisis, Part II: Curbing Fed Independence
from ScheerPost There has been considerable discussion in recent years about reforming, modifying, or even abolishing the Federal Reserve. Proposals range from ending its independence, to integrating its functions into the U.S. Treasury Department, to dismantling it and returning monetary policy to direct congressional or Treasury oversight. The Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act (H.R. 1846 […]
October 30, 2025 | US-Japan Rare Earth Minerals Deal
There is perhaps no more critical resource than rare earth minerals. They largely cannot be created or derived in the US and are absolutely essential for not only manufacturing but also maintaining the nation’s military power. Japan recently lifted the trade export ban on military and defense equipment under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi […]
October 29, 2025 | Bill Gates: Climate Change Crisis Averted
Bill Gates is calling for a “strategic pivot” on climate change in a 17-page manifesto in which he declares that scientific innovations have averted the crisis. The doomsday prophecies of a climate apocalypse by 2030 have clearly not come to fruition. “Climate change is a serious problem, but it will not be the end […]
October 29, 2025 | Layoffs Spreading Even with Financial Conditions Ultra-Easy
Nearly 2 million Americans have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more, according to recent federal data, and layoffs are growing daily as companies look to slash overhead. Amazon said this week it would cut 14,000 corporate jobs, with plans to eliminate up to 10% of its white-collar workforce. United Parcel Service said it had […]
October 28, 2025 | One in 10 Americans on SNAP
There are 42 million Americans at risk of losing access to SNAP food stamp benefits due to the prolonged government shutdown. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) does not have the ability to continue funding the program and funds will run dry on November 1. It is more alarming that one in ten Americans currently […]
October 28, 2025 | Private Credit Winter
As banks blew up in 2008, they pulled back from high-risk lending. Private equity (PE) funds filled the void, raising capital from investors to buy all manner of companies, while private credit funded the companies that were acquired. Today, some 70–80% of private credit loans are to PE-sponsored companies. Both PE and private credit raise capital […]
October 27, 2025 | Hold the Applause
Happy Monday Morning! Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.4% in September, more than expected. Perhaps more intriguing is that rental prices are accelerating higher. They’re now up 4.8% year-over-year and 6.1% annualized over the past three months. A head scratcher for any regular reader here. So what does Stats Canada see that we don’t? […]
October 27, 2025 | TM: Every Bubble Bursts
Tough to get a word in edge-wise with David, but this segment is rich in economic insight. It’s easy to feel confused these days. With the stock market at all-time highs, some analysts predict this bull market has a lot longer to run as the business-friendly policies of the new Administration start adding tailwinds to […]
October 27, 2025 | The Core of the Peace Proposal
The Road to Peace is undoubtedly attainable. I urge everyone to read my Peace Proposal that details the intricacies of restoring global order. The importance of restoring peace is paramount. Without peace, we will be forced to endure World War III—the destruction and loss of life is unfathomable. Share this document with whoever is […]
October 26, 2025 | Debt Cycles, Eastern Style
Our planet has a wide array of different political and economic systems. Some work better, so you’d think we would gravitate to those over time. But even now, we still have a lot of variety. What works in one place and time might not succeed in different conditions. All these systems, however, have one thing […]
October 26, 2025 | A Long-Term Play: Buy TSLA, Short AAPL
Here’s a long-term trading opportunity that seems foolproof: short Apple shares and buy Tesla. Looking out over the next 10 years, this hedge position has the potential to produce outsize profits. How could Apple stumble badly enough to make it work? This is hardly inconceivable. Since Steve Jobs died 14 years ago, the company he […]
October 26, 2025 | US vs Russia – Greatest Danger is when a Pawn thinks it is a Queen
QUESTION: You said that Trump is listening to the Neocons in his administration and in DC. Would you please name names? Why did Trump back off on the Tomahawks? GW ANSWER: I believe the Neocons influencing Trump are Rubio, Bessert (Ex-Soros now running Treasury), and Lindsey Graham, among others. I believe all are war […]
October 25, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for October 25, 2025
Gold prices corrected this week after closing higher for nine consecutive weeks, with prices up over $1,000 (~31%) from the August lows. Gold rallied above $2,000 for the first time in August 2020 (blue ellipse) as governments and central banks reacted to covid, and as the US 10-year bond yield fell to a historic low of […]
October 25, 2025 | State Voting Audits
How many illegal immigrants have been permitted to vote in US elections? The number has been shrouded by federal law until the Trump Administration provided states with the authority to audit voter rolls. Texas Secretary of State Jane Nelson announced the results of the Texas state audit—2,724 noncitizens across 254 counties are currently registered to […]
October 25, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday October 25th 2025
The Bottom Line Focuses this week are on: Interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada on Wednesday. Big cap corporate quarterly results released on Wednesday (Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta) and Thursday (Apple and Amazon). Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies Source: www.factset.com Analyst earnings and revenue estimates increased […]
October 24, 2025 | Europe Fears a US Civil War – Whiskey Rebellion to Now
The Centre for Strategic and International Studies determined that the definition of a civil war is a conflict in which at least 1,000 people are killed. The institution likened the definition to the 1791 Whiskey Rebellion that broke out due to excessive taxation, and believes the US is on the brink of another civil […]
October 24, 2025 | China Rare Earth Grip Tightens
The global fight over rare earth elements has entered a new and dangerous phase. China holds the advantage—and Washington has few good options. In October, Beijing announced new restrictions on exports of rare earth elements (REEs). Any product containing even trace amounts of China-sourced materials could now require special approval or be denied altogether. The […]
October 24, 2025 | Recession Watch: Shadow Banking Crisis … and So Much More
The spread of private equity and non-bank lending has created a “shadow banking system” that’s largely invisible — until something breaks. Then the resulting losses show up in the real banking system, and everyone freaks. In the past couple of months, some of this shadow paper went bad without warning. Here are a few bullet-point […]
October 24, 2025 | Another Word To The Gold Bugs
Investment sales Hoorang can be hard to resist, but self-preservation requires that we do. Never more than amid today’s everything bubble, where mania has ballooned the pricing of many assets all at once, from stocks to high-yield credit, private equity, credit funds, real estate, crypto, and precious metals. I have long said that people should […]
October 23, 2025 | DDB on Dash for Cash Catalysts
The financial system is sending out a major distress signal. While stocks hover near all-time highs, former Federal Reserve insider Danielle DiMartino Booth warns that a systemic liquidity crisis is already here, and it will force the Fed to abandon its inflation fight. In this interview, the CEO of QI Research tells Kitco News’ Jeremy […]
October 23, 2025 | Post-Pandemic Inflation in Canada
Inflation in Canada rose to 2.4% this September, as reported by Statistics Canada. Excluding gas, the rate sits at 2.6%. Volatile prices among all essentials, from groceries to shelter, are ramping up the cost-of-living crisis for all Canadians. Grocery prices have been on the rise since the pandemic and cannot be attributed to tariffs. The […]
October 22, 2025 | Record Capital Risk
Most retirement accounts and investment portfolios are designed to track broad stock indices like the S&P 500, but under the hood, there’s much less diversification than imagined. One chip company, Nvidia, accounts for 7.3% of the S&P 500 market capitalization; the three most expensive companies—Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple—comprise an unprecedented 21% of the index (chart […]