December 1, 2025 | Canada Struggles with the Legacy of ‘Easy Money’

Canada’s economy (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 2.6% in the third quarter of 2025  after a 1.8% contraction in the second quarter (shown below, courtesy of The Globe and Mail).Consensus expectations were for a much smaller.50% Q3 increase and the upside surprise helped Canada officially avoid two consecutive quarters of GDP decline (a […]

December 1, 2025 | The Federal Reserve Was Brilliant Until Politics Destroyed It

  People love to blame the Federal Reserve for everything under the sun because it is easier than admitting the real problem: government. The tragic part of this entire monetary experiment is that the Fed, as originally designed in 1913, was brilliant. Each regional branch operated independently, responding to local capital flows instead of political […]

December 1, 2025 | Under the Hood

Happy Monday Morning! The Canadian economy showed surprising resilience in the third quarter, with GDP expanding 2.6% on an annualized basis, well above expectations from both the Bank of Canada and a poll of economists which had pegged growth at just 0.5%. However, under the hood, there was cause for concern. The surge in growth […]

November 30, 2025 | Private Credit Fault Lines

Sometime in the late aughts (after the GFC) I wrote a letter stating that private credit would one day be bigger than private equity. We are not there yet but getting closer. Private credit, like private equity, encompasses a vast array of different assets with equally vast risks spanning the spectrum from “I really want […]

November 30, 2025 | Tariffs – Legal or Not to Be

  The President cannot unilaterally impose tariffs on antique objects (over 100 years old) if Congress has expressly exempted them. But there are narrow exceptions where a president might temporarily override tariff exemptions, depending on the statutory authority Congress has delegated (e.g., national security statutes like Section 232, emergency powers, sanctions, or trade remedies related […]

November 30, 2025 | Bear Sighting Was Premature

Like UFOs and Bigfoot, far more bear market sightings are imagined than real. I thought I’d spotted Papa Bear myself when Nvidia announced terrific earnings a couple of weeks ago, only to see their shares reverse and dive sharply after a deceptive spike higher. Was this the needle prick that burst the AI bubble? It […]

November 29, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for November 29, 2025

Leading global stock indices bounced back this week following the recent “excessive optimism purge” The S&P reached record highs on October 9, but tumbled on the 10th amid China’s threat to withhold essential rare earths (blue ellipse). The market rallied back on AI enthusiasm and gapped higher over the October 24/25 weekend (pink ellipse) to reach new record […]

November 29, 2025 | Hating the Dollar – Nearly a 60 Year Tradition

QUESTION: Marty, I want to thank you for the WEC. It was the best one I have ever attended. I loved your comment on the perpetual dollar bears since the 1970s and how they have been consistently wrong. I find it curious when someone like __ ___ knows you are, then talks about the fourth turning, […]

November 29, 2025 | Market Pulse: The S&P 500’s Buy-the-Dip} Rally: Silver Surges, While NVIDIA Faces Headwinds

Strong US Stock Rebound: All three major US stock indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones, & Nasdaq) saw their best weekly performance since June, recovering from a mid-month slump. The last few weeks have been a masterclass in market volatility, but a dramatic shift in sentiment has pulled the S&P 500 index back from the brink. […]

November 29, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday November 29th 2025

The Bottom Line Seasonal strength by North American indices from late November to early January “kicked in” last week despite limited favourable economic and corporate news. Notable was strength by the NASDAQ Composite Index on a real and relative basis (relative to the S&P 500). Economic News This Week U.S. September Construction Spending is released […]

November 28, 2025 | Are Aliens a Black Swan or a False Flag?

Yet another documentary about aliens just dropped. But instead of leaning on sketchy whistleblowers and anonymous quotes, this one, titled Age of Disclosure, features Establishment heavy hitters like Marco Rubio, Trump’s Secretary of State and National Security Advisor. They’re saying: Aliens are real, and here. The US, China, and Russia all have alien technology and non-human bodies. […]

November 28, 2025 | Pipeline Politics Meets Demand Reality

Alberta and Ottawa’s sweeping new energy accord, signed by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Danielle Smith, is being framed as a nation‑building effort Alberta and Ottawa’s sweeping new energy accord, signed by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Danielle Smith, is being framed as a nation‑building effort to position Canada as a global energy […]

November 28, 2025 | The Fountain of Youth

The Fountain of Youth is a legendary spring believed to have the power to halt or reverse aging. Tales of this miraculous body of water have originated in places ranging from Japan to England to the Caribbean. Perhaps the most famous legend associated with the Fountain of Youth is sixteenth-century Spanish explorer Juan Ponce de […]

November 28, 2025 | Black Friday Shoppers Prepared to Take on Debt

Retailers are predicting a slight decline in Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales, an early indication of holiday-season spending and Q4 sales. Total sales in the US alone are expected to exceed $1 trillion, with growth between 3.7% and 4.2%, a bit beneath last year’s 4.8% growth. However, individual shoppers are expected to spend 4% less. Dive […]

November 27, 2025 | Will Rate Cuts Continue in December?

Happy American Thanksgiving to our US readers. The segment below offers a worthwhile macro update. David Rosenberg, founder at Rosenberg Research, discusses the market outlook while awaiting the latest Fed decision. Here is a direct video link.

November 27, 2025 | Happy Thanksgiving

November 26, 2025 | Training AI vs. Inference AI

Artificial intelligence (AI) isn’t one big process – it’s like a two-part job: training (teaching the AI) and inference (using what it learned). Each part needs different computer hardware, called chips, which is why companies like Nvidia and AMD lead in some areas, while others compete elsewhere. For investors, understanding this split helps spot opportunities […]

November 26, 2025 | “Inelastic” Gold Means Much Higher Prices

Economists have a useful concept called “elasticity,” which measures how one thing responds to another. For example, if the price of corn goes up, farmers plant more acres and produce more grain. The supply of corn is thus “elastic,” because it rises in response to higher prices. In contrast, something that doesn’t respond to price […]

November 26, 2025 | Potential Proxy War in Venezuela

  No one blinked when Venezuela declared itself at war with the US. President Trump said he would not bother declaring a war against the drug cartels, opting to simply kill any potential smugglers. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was labeled a terrorist by US intelligence agencies this week. The West showed no concern over the […]

November 26, 2025 | AI Assisted Heat Pumps are a Gamechanger

Heat Pumps are the future of home heating. But until recently most companies have grossly over sized the Heat Pump systems they install for fear of leaving the client with a cold home. In the age of super-efficiency that level of shoddy service is completely unacceptable. That’s all changed now though with the launch of […]

November 25, 2025 | Connecting The Dots….Reveals A Dire Picture

Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off […]

November 25, 2025 | About That: If the AI Bubble Pops, Will The Economy Go With It?

As investors pour billions into artificial intelligence, warnings of a looming AI bubble are intensifying. Andrew Chang explains what’s fuelling those fears and breaks down key factors that could contribute to a burst bubble. Here is a direct video link. 

November 25, 2025 | Boris Johnson Urges Ukraine to Continue War

  Trump’s proposal for peace in Ukraine has been met with an overwhelming condemnation from the world’s neocons. Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson reemerges from the shadows whenever he hears word that a war may be winding down. He played an instrumental role in persuading Zelensky not to negotiate a peace treaty with Russia when it […]

November 24, 2025 | Proformas

Happy Monday Morning! Last month we wrote a piece titled ‘Hold the Applause’ in which we cautioned the Carney Government for taking a victory lap following a bounce in September housing starts. For the record, we believe his policy team knows better, but couldn’t resist a good tweet. As we noted, The seasonally adjusted annualized […]