April 22, 2026 | Iran – the Great Global Mess

US President Donald Trump reversed himself again as he continues to look for a way out of this quagmire, which has become a deeply unpopular conflict that’s driven up gas prices and threatens to plunge Europe into its own Great Depression.  The Iranian government appears divided, and the military seems to be assuming power, declining to yield to the political faction.

The Neocons, who lack the ability to engage in strategy beyond the tip of their noses, routinely see only myopically and are simply incompetent, incapable of even adding 2 + 2. They proved that the lack of strategy with Iraq. They only focused on removing Saddam and never gave a second thought to what came afterward. That was Tony Blair’s apology.

Trump is desperate to exit this war, but publicly, he will NEVER admit it was a mistake or that he was influenced by Netanyahu’s constant propaganda to annihilate all of his enemies using the US military and American soldiers to die for his persistent hatred of his adversaries. I would expect Netanyahu to now stage some sort of false flag to not only get Trump back in this war, but also because his own critics are now saying he lacks the courage to stand up to Trump. With elections in the wings, Netanyahu is not likely to go quietly into retirement.

As mentioned, we are seeing factions emerge internally within Iran. This should eventually expand, and we would expect Iran to fracture politically in early 2027. To some extent, this is why Trump’s latest turnabout. I do not believe that Trump is receiving realistic information about the future. The Neocons must be breaking out in a cold sweat and on the verge of foaming at the mouth.

I have previously warned how this war has left the United States vulnerable to being defeated. The US military has significantly depleted its stockpile of key missiles during the war with Iran. We are faced with a serious near-term risk of running out of ammunition, and we are extremely vulnerable to another confrontation, especially if Trump decides to bomb Iran into capitulation. The US military has expended at least 45% of its stockpile of Precision Strike Missiles; at least half of its THAAD missile inventory, which is designed to intercept ballistic missiles; and nearly 50% of its Patriot air defense interceptor missiles. If China were to invade Taiwan, we lack the firepower to defend the island. Other SE Asian countries are realizing that they cannot be defended by the USA, and behind closed doors, they are seeking consideration with China.

While the US likely has enough bombs and missiles to continue combat operations against Iran. However, if Trump gives the OK to try to eliminate the Persian Civilization, the US will not be able to defend a fishing boat in the near future. The US stockpiles are no longer sufficient to confront a near-peer adversary, like China or Russia, and it will likely take YEARS before the inventory of those weapons can be restored. This is what I warned was the downside of high-tech.

Iran has sent waves of cheap drones costing as little as $20,000 to force Israel to shoot two interceptors at a cost of nearly $7 million. Iran has cleverly fought a war of attrition. Something that the Neocons never even thought about.

Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, said the country would lift the restrictions to help prevent the “outbreak of conflicts” and safeguard its own security by working with other nations, opening the door for deadly weapons sales with 17 countries sharing defense agreements with Japan. In other words, Japan is entering the arms race. They realize that the US has shot itself in the foot with the war against Iran for Netanyahu. There was no immediate threat from Iran and even if they had a nuke like Pakistan, it would be a deterent to prevent Netanyahu from attacking their country.

Now sorces confirm that 7 other countries are now going to pursue nuclear weapons including Poland. The lessen from Iran is that if you have nukes,  that is a deterent against an invasion like North Korea, which is far more of a threat than Iran.

The global airline industry is facing a significant disruption due to a sharp rise in jet fuel prices, driven by the conflict in the Middle East. This has led to flight cancellations, route suspensions, and the introduction of new fees by over 30 airlines worldwide. This is a severe crisis that will undermine summer vacations, even in the United States.

Air Canada suspended six routes, including to New York’s JFK. KLM (Dutch) canceled 160 European flights. Lufthansa canceled some 20,000 flights. United has cut 5% of its flights starting in the 2nd quarter, and most airlines are now imposing baggage surcharges.

Trump’s blockade will only make this situation worse. The ongoing closure of the Strait is increasing the risk of a global recession with a Depression in Europe. This conflict is sapping economic growth and oil demand, and we expect the situation to get even worse. Not only will renewed attacks ensure the Straut will not reopen, but Iran holds the cards, and they can attack the Gulf States to seriously prevent production, which will send oil prices over $200.  That is in addition to a brewing Sovereign Debt Crisis that will also undermine the global economy.

On top of all of this is the escalating Sovereign Debt Crisis that is undermining Trump’s policy of Making America Great Again. Jules ‘Jay’ Hurst, performing the duties of Pentagon comptroller, told reporters that the $1.5 trillion request from Trump was a budget that does not include the cost of Iran. Hurst to the press on Tuesday: “This budget was formulated, honestly, before we went into conflict with Iran.”

Martin Armstrong April 22nd, 2026

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

Next: Grantham: Lessons from 60 Legendary Years of Investing »