February 10, 2026 | Risk Trade Poised To Follow Crypto’s Lead

Stocks, commodities, junk bonds, precious metals, and crypto assets all leapt together into late 2025; now, Bitcoin, the crypto leader, is down 44% since October, and the broader crypto market has vaporized trillions in notional value while billions flow out of crypto-based Exchange Traded Funds.

US stocks trading at all-time bubble-high valuations (S&P 500 composite of 8 most relevant valuation metrics below since 1900) and making up a near-record weight of the global equity market cap are sporting an even bigger bullseye for implosion. When this bubble bursts, Wall Street et al will insist that no one saw it coming, but that will be just another case of wilful blindness.

U.S. stocks account for approximately 63% of global equity market capitalization, the highest since the 1966 secular bubble top, after which equity markets entered a secular bear period that lasted until 1982 (shown below since 1900).

Forced and panicked liquidation are natural outcomes of extreme prices and extreme leverage (borrowing to buy), which violently revert to the mean. We are seeing this unfold in certain property markets today, and borrowing to buy securities (margin accounts) ended 2025 at levels only seen at prior bubble tops in 2021, 2007, and 2000 (shown below since 1998, courtesy of ISABELNET.com).

Large bounce days and weeks are typical during bear markets, but as liquidation selling spreads, pain tends to be contagious across all risk assets over periods of 9 to 24 months.

Wilful blindness and ignorance can get people into bubbles, but they’re no protection from the losses that inevitably unfold. The question will be: how could you not see the wipeout coming?

There are many lucid observations in the segment below.

Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, warns that gold, silver, and crypto have all peaked, the U.S. stock market is overdue for a significant correction, and U.S. Treasury bonds are the best trade ahead.  Here is a direct video link.

Danielle Park February 10th, 2026

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