ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
August 11, 2025 | Housing Downturn is Bigger Economic Story Than Tariffs
As policymakers focus on tariffs, bursting real estate bubbles pose a significantly larger threat in terms of relative economic impact, and that’s now happening in several major economies simultaneously. Homes are the foundation of the household balance sheet and assets in the banking system. A 2025 Bank of Montreal report, “A Long Way Home”, concurs with our […]
August 10, 2025 | EU, NATO & Zelensky Plotting Against Trump
I am getting an increasing number of questions about how in the world our model forecasts war in advance and targets specific weeks like August 18th, 2025, a year in advance, and then Trump picks that Friday 15th for his peace conference with Putin in Alaska. You NEVER make such a forecast using a single […]
August 10, 2025 | Soft Data Hardens
I remember when August was a slow month. School didn’t start until after Labor Day. Even in my adult days in the investment world, not much happened. People were either on vacation or coming back and getting ready for September. It’s hard to believe, but nobody really cared about Jackson Hole in the ’80s or […]
August 10, 2025 | AAPL Back Again as an Engine of Illusory Wealth
You’ve got to hand it to DaBoyz for reviving Apple as a ‘wealth’-effect dynamo. The company couldn’t innovate its way out of a wet paper bag, and it doesn’t even have a horse in the AI race. And yet, the stock recently lurched back to life, emulating those two bull-market superstars, Microsoft and Nvidia. Indeed, […]
August 10, 2025 | Portrait of a Crack-Up Boom, in Four Charts
The Austrian school of economics (the only good school of economics) has a concept called the “crack-up boom” that perfectly explains today’s world. Here’s an AI-generated summary: A crack-up boom is an economic crisis characterized by the collapse of a monetary system due to sustained, expansionary monetary policy leading to hyperinflation and a complete loss […]
August 9, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for August 9, 2025
Creative destruction: move fast and break things This week was short on scheduled market-moving economic data (setting aside the poorly bid bond auctions), but Trump (God bless’em) kept things lively. Trump imposed a 39% tariff on Switzerland and a 50% rate on India (if they don’t stop buying Russian crude oil). Additionally, he imposed a 100% […]
August 9, 2025 | Trump Meets Putin for the Panic Cycle
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, we understand your frustration, and that reveals that you are genuine, not fake. I think you need to be commended for appearing on Russia Today, explaining that Trump is not a neocon, and your dinner with him shows you his character. Explaining that on RT coming from you, who your own […]
August 9, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 9th 2025
The Bottom Line Despite gains recorded by U.S. equity indices last week, technical evidence of an intermediate peak set in late July continues to accumulate. North American equity markets have entered their traditional corrective period in August and September during post-U.S. President Election years following an advance from April to July. Strength this year from […]
August 8, 2025 | Stablecoins: Washington’s Secret Weapon Against the Debt Spiral
The US Treasury plans to borrow over $1 trillion in Q3 2025, raising federal debt over $28 trillion. With foreign buyers pulling back from US Treasuries, the recent GENIUS and CLARITY Acts may signal a creative solution: using stablecoins to help fund America’s debt. What are Stablecoins? Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to […]
August 8, 2025 | Bank of England Cuts Interest Rates
The Bank of England has cut its base interest rate to 4%, even as it warns of rising inflation. “We’ve cut interest rates today, but it was a finely balanced decision. Interest rates are still on a downward path, but any future cuts will need to be made gradually and carefully,” Governor Andrew Bailey […]
August 8, 2025 | Milei of Argentina Takes Another IMF Bailout
Argentina: Fiscal Fireworks and Another IMF Bailout Argentine President Javier Milei wants to make Argentina great again — with another $20 billion from the IMF. The bailout, approved in April, was controversial: nearly half of IMF board members were hesitant. Argentina already owes about one-third of the IMF’s total outstanding loans, and it’s defaulted nine times. But in this […]
August 7, 2025 | US Treasury to Print $500 Bills?
Rumors are circulating that the United States may begin to print $500 bills. The US Bureau of Engraving and Printing began printing $500 bills in 1861 until 1945, formally discontinuing them in 1969 when Nixon moved to close the gold window. The US Treasury has since required banks to send all $500 bills back to […]
August 7, 2025 | Liberation Day 2.0?
Last night at midnight, goods from more than 60 countries and the European Union became subject to tariff rates of 10% or higher. Products from the EU, Japan and South Korea are taxed at 15%, while imports from Taiwan, Vietnam and Bangladesh are taxed at 20%. See the full list of U.S tariffs in place around […]
August 6, 2025 | The Rare Earth Elements Crisis – Why isn’t America Digging in Ukraine?
America is desperate for rare earth minerals. China was supplying the US with around 70% of all such minerals, but they’re not going to supply them to an enemy nation to create weapons. As I mentioned yesterday, this is precisely why America is desperate to access Ukraine. I received a few comments asking why […]
August 6, 2025 | Crude Oil Falls >US$5/b From Last Week On Growing Supplies And Weak Summer Demand.
Crude oil prices have declined >US$5/b from a week ago (today’s low US$64.66/b versus US$70.13/b last week) as weak demand and rising inventories (see EIA section) offset President Trump’s aggressive moves on secondary sanctions and increasing tariffs on Russian oil buyers. Today the US increased tariffs on India from 25% to 50% as a result […]
August 6, 2025 | Having Skills vs. a College Degree
One of my gym homies is a young man that is going to college to get a degree in Real Estate Development. “No college professors are going to teach you how to be successful in that business,” I told him. Instead, I advised him to quit college and go work for an experienced real […]
August 5, 2025 | The Rare Earth Crisis
QUESTION: If Trump imposes sanctions on China for buying Russian energy, what do you expect China to do? Rob ANSWER: The deeper you look, the more it becomes abundantly clear. America’s defence supply chain is built on materials it doesn’t control. Missiles, fighter jets, radar systems, drones — all depend on a steady stream of […]
August 5, 2025 | Collapse in Job Creation
Canada’s seasonally adjusted job vacancy rate fell to 2.7% in May, down 10 basis points (bps) from April and -50 bps year over year, reaching an 8-year low, significantly below pre-pandemic levels (red shown below since 2015, courtesy of BMO and Better Dwelling.com, with the US job opening rate in blue). Official unemployment rates are lagging indicators, […]
August 4, 2025 | Retail and Tech Jobs At-Risk in the US
US employers have reduced their workforce more in the first seven months of 2025 than in all of 2024. The DOGE cuts to the public sector were the primary driver of layoffs; however, there has been a notable drop in retail and technology positions in the private sector. July alone saw 62,000 jobs reduced from […]
August 3, 2025 | Disappointment with Trump Raising Serious Concerns Worldwide
QUESTION: This may seem to be a conspiracy theory, but has a double been sent in to pretend he is Trump. The anti-war old Trump has moved nuclear subs to the border of Russia, and the Telegraph reported that no president has ever played a game of nuclear brinkmanship. Trump looks different and much older […]
August 3, 2025 | Prepare to Muddle Through?
I am widely known as the “Muddle Through” guy. The giant US economy is part of an even larger global economy that doesn’t change direction easily. Major shifts occur slowly, even when presidents, central bankers, and CEOs want otherwise. They don’t have nearly as much power as they may think. That said, these people do […]
August 3, 2025 | Enjoy Tariff Hubris While It Lasts
The stock market is priced for perfection in a grotesquely imperfect world. Trump provided a fleeting respite by showing us how the Art of the Deal works in trade negotiations. Fox News rightly rubbed the legacy media’s face in his success while the President took a half-dozen victory laps to muted global applause. This may […]
August 2, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for August 2, 2025
The S&P closed at record highs last week, but fell to 1-month lows this week The September S&P futures closed at record highs last week, traded higher on Monday, fell off ~100 points to Wednesday’s lows, but gapped higher after the close on strong MSFT and META reports. The market opened higher on Thursday, but couldn’t […]
August 2, 2025 | Soros Assisted Hillary and Obama in Russian Collusion Hoax
Newly declassified documents reveal that George Soros assisted Hillary Clinton in creating the Russian collusion hoax in an attempt to discredit Donald Trump and deceive the American public ahead of a presidential election. Special counsel John Durham’s 2023 report has been largely declassified and now reveals the link between Soros’s Open Society Foundations and the […]
August 2, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 2nd 2025
The Bottom Line North American equity markets have entered their traditional corrective period in August and September during post-U.S. President Election years following an advance from April to July. Strength this year from April to July was prompted by greater (i.e. front end loaded) economic activity prior to launch of tariffs on manufactured products. And […]