ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
December 11, 2023 | What Happened?
This article was written on Wednesday, December 6, 2023. Of course, I’m referring to the wild price ride in gold and silver from Fridays near all-time price high in gold, to Sunday evening’s initial blast to the upside of as much as $60, to a selloff of $120 and to where gold closed trading yesterday […]
December 11, 2023 | Markets Have Not Yet Priced New Normal of Slower Growth China
Our September 30, 2021, client letter “Shifting Foundations” highlighted the default of Chinese property developer Evergrande as a turning point in the real estate-centric China growth story with broad implications for the global economy: China’s property sector has been the largest driver of its economic growth over the past decade and a significant driver of global growth. […]
December 11, 2023 | For Better or for Worse
Happy Monday Morning! In last weeks note we highlighted the BC Governments passing of bill 44 which effectively stripped municipalities of their zoning power by eliminating single family zoning, and requiring high-density development next to transit. The magnitude of these changes should not be understated. This is perhaps the single largest housing policy change in the history […]
December 11, 2023 | American Wealth Declined in Q3
According to a recent Federal Reserve report, US household wealth experienced a significant decline in the third quarter, largely attributed to deep stock losses. The central bank’s report revealed that household net worth fell by approximately $1.3 trillion, or 0.9%, from July to September, amounting to $151 trillion. The decline was primarily driven by […]
December 10, 2023 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Danielle was a guest on the CBC Weekend Business Panel, talking about the Bank of Canada rate decision, grocery prices and McDonald’s efforts to increase sales. You can watch a video clip of the segment here.
December 10, 2023 | Fair Shares of Debt
Don’t Tax You. Don’t Tax Me. Tax That Fellow Behind the Tree – Attributed to Senator Russell B. Long, Louisiana ~1930s One thing you learn when writing about the debt problem, as I have been in recent weeks, is that many people think it’s not a problem at all. They believe we could easily balance […]
December 10, 2023 | This is Why the 2024 Election Will Never Be Accepted
The Democrats have not only schemed to try to prevent Trump from being on any ballot, but they have effectively forced RFK out of the Democratic Party. They have even been trying to block any other Democrat from being on any ballot. This is in-you-face anti-Democracy. The Neocons have the Democrats as their puppet, […]
December 10, 2023 | Why Liberals Dump Their Oldest Friends
[This essay originally appeared here in July 2022 and was written by a friend who spends a lot of time thinking outside the box. His provocative thesis is that that there is a physiological basis for our political differences; moreover, he notes, liberals cancel and ghost their conservative friends for reasons that are tied to […]
December 10, 2023 | Haves vs. Have-Nots in America
The U.S. is a country of extremes. Americans are the richest people in the developed world – but are also the poorest and most likely to go hungry. Data shows that only 10% of all Americans are able to beat inflation, taxation, and changing market conditions over time. Learning […]
December 9, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 9, 2023
Gold soars to All-Time High, then falls below last week’s low On Sunday evening, New York time (Monday morning Asian time), February Comex gold soared ~$60 within the first hour of trade to an All-Time High of ~$2,152. By mid-day Monday in New York, it was down ~$115 from the overnight highs; at Friday’s lows, it […]
December 9, 2023 | When Government Does Not Understand Something – Regulate It Until They Kill It
The golden rule of government is that whenever something new emerges – regulate it even when you do not understand what you are doing. While the details are not yet set, the EU wants to be the first to regulate AI. This new legislation requires foundation models such as ChatGPT and general-purpose AI systems […]
December 9, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday December 9th 2023
The Bottom Line Focus this week is on U.S. economic news and its impact on interest rates: November CPI on Tuesday, November PPI on Wednesday, FOMC’s Fed Fund Rate on Wednesday and November Retail Sales on Thursday. If consensus holds, the stage is set for the proverbial Christmas Rally from December 15th to January 5th,
December 8, 2023 | Canada Limiting Oil and Gas Industry Emission
Canada has announced a plan to use a cap-and-trade system to impose greenhouse gas emission limits on its oil and gas industry. Under the “draft framework,” Canada will issue emissions allowances to oil and gas producers, which will be capped at levels between 35% and 38% below 2019 levels, beginning in 2030. The government […]
December 8, 2023 | Gold: $2000 Might Still Be Resistance
One of the fun things about bull markets is watching resistance levels turn into support. Gold, for instance, spent three years banging into $2000/oz and recently broke through, touching $2125 on December 1. Then the selling started, pushing the price down to, as this is written, $1997. If the “$2000 is now support” thesis holds, buyers will […]
December 8, 2023 | Canadian Lenders are Sleepwalking into The Next Recession
Canadian lenders are ill-prepared for the impact of higher interest rates on Canadian borrowers. The banks have sophisticated models that help them make predictions about the future. But those predictions are only as good as the assumptions fed into the model. Are those assumptions realistic? With the help of Nigel D’Souza, research analyst with Veritas […]
December 7, 2023 | Cost Of Living Outpaces Wage Increases
A recent study by Achieve revealed that despite a 37% increase in income, many Americans are facing financial challenges due to rising costs and high interest rates, leading to a surge in personal debt. The average monthly participation in debt resolution programs increased by 119% in the first nine months of 2023 compared to […]
December 7, 2023 | Lagged Effects of Epic Tightening Cycle Will Intensify in 2024
Equifax Canada reports that Canadian households added $80 billion of additional consumer debt over the past year, making the total outstanding an eye-watering $2.4 trillion. Well beyond paycheck to paycheck, many are living credit card to credit card. Money owed on credit cards climbed to a new high of $113.4 billion in the third quarter of […]
December 7, 2023 | More Evidence of a Silver Shortage
Recently, the Silver Institute updated its annual review on silver that it originally published in April. The report indicated a reduction in total supply (mine production plus recycling) and an increase in industrial demand. The new report indicates total silver supply for 2023 as being 23 million ounces less than originally reported, largely due to […]
December 6, 2023 | Subprime Comes Home to Roost for Specialized Auto Dealers, Lenders & Investors: Car-Mart Was Next to Confess
Subprime is re-getting into trouble, after having somewhat gotten out of trouble during the free-money pandemic, when folks used some of the free money to catch up with past-dues. In the auto industry, subprime is largely confined to older used vehicles. Less than 5% of new vehicle sales are financed with loans or leases to […]
December 6, 2023 | Moody’s Downgrades Chinese Debt
Moody’s has downgraded the outlook on China’s credit rating from “stable” to “negative” due to concerns about the country’s post-pandemic recovery, weak consumer and business confidence, a persistent housing crisis, and a global economic slowdown. The downgrade reflects the rising evidence that financial support will be provided by the government and wider public sector […]
December 6, 2023 | De-Dollarization Watch: It’s Definitely Happening
De-dollarization events that would once have been a big deal have become common lately. Some examples: UAE officially stops using dollar for oil trades (Watcher) – The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is asking BRICS countries to settle oil trade in local currencies and not the U.S. dollar. The Middle Eastern nation is aiming to diversify […]
December 6, 2023 | Economic Weakness is Leading Interest Rates Lower
This morning, weaker-than-expected US job creation in November adds to the growing list of negative economic surprises globally and reinforces the expectation that the Bank of Canada today and the US Fed next Wednesday will make no rate changes for the fifth consecutive meeting. Before this morning’s data, the futures market was pricing in 120 basis points […]
December 5, 2023 | Kerry – WEF – First Movers Coalition
John Kerry declared that America would adhere to the Power Past Coal Alliance and partner with 56 other nations in eliminating coal power. Kerry committed $3 billion to the cause which should come as no surprise since Kerry collaborated with the World Economic Forum to launch the First Movers Coalition (FMC) back at the […]
December 5, 2023 | Art of the Collapse, December 2023
Henry Kissinger died in November, launching a zillion memes: Back in the land of the alive but hungry, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman declared that inflation is not nearly as bad as ignorant Americans believe. Some begged to differ: A big holiday thanks to the FBI for protecting us from an upsurge in terrorist activity: FBI Closely […]
December 5, 2023 | Easing Cycles are No Quick Fix
After 475 basis points (bps) of rate hikes between March 2022 and July 2023, Canada’s economy has ground to a halt, with economic activity contracting at a 1.1% annualized rate in the third quarter. Per capita, Canadian GDP has contracted for the past five quarters (below courtesy of RBC Economics). The rate of change matters most, and […]