June 19, 2026 | So What Happens With Oil Now?

If the Iran war is really over — still a very big “if” — the global oil markets will start trending back to normal. This will take a while, and some of the supply chain kinks will continue to cause problems. But it’s interesting that oil’s price is around $78/bbl this morning.

Why is that interesting? Because Tommy Norris, the protagonist of the must-watch TV show Landman, recently explained why that’s the perfect price:

You want oil to live above $60, but below $90. And don’t get me wrong, we’re still printing money at $90, but gas gets up over $3.50 a gallon, it starts to pinch. If it’s $100, every product in America has to readjust its price. $78 a barrel, that’s about perfect. It brings enough profit to keep exploring, but doesn’t sting as much at the pump, unless, of course, you’re in California.

Here’s a clip:

Was the Iran War a Non-Event For Oil Stocks?

Thanks to the US and (probably) China drawing down their strategic petroleum reserves, oil prices didn’t reach disruptive levels. So, some Middle East infrastructure has to be rebuilt, and storage tanks around the world have to be refilled, which will support prices for at least the balance of the year. But the oil companies that weren’t directly exposed to drone attacks will continue with business as usual.

Here’s oil analyst Jeff Currie making the case for oil stocks going forward (relevant excerpt below):

Excerpt

The “old economy” is under invested and as a result, it doesn’t have the capacity to grow production like it used to. So we need to rotate capital out of the new economy into the old economy to the tune of, you know, trillions. And it’s not just oil and gas, it’s also the metals.

What’s nice about the oil space is it pays you along the way. These companies, at least the bigger guys, tend to be pretty good dividend payers.

A long time ago, a friend of mine at Goldman, a very senior partner,, said, “Jeff, if I ever hear the word alpha come out of your mouth again, stop it. Own the beta. Just play it safe and ride what you have the most confidence in.”

The long-term outlook for oil is positive because not only do you have the underinvestment, but you’ve now lost supplies out of the Middle East. You’ve lost refineries. So I think to answer the oil question is, just get the exposure.

Dividend Plays

Oil company stocks — represented here by Exxon — had a nice wartime pop and are now shedding some of their supply-shock premiums. Put another way, their dividend yields are rising.

See our Portfolio’s oil stocks here.

John Rubino June 19th, 2026

Posted In: John Rubino Substack

Next: The Federal Reserve has a New Leader Who Talks Tough »