March 9, 2026 | Upsetting the Apple Cart

Happy Monday Morning!

Last week we wrote a piece titled ‘Landmark Agreements’ in which the Federal Government signed an agreement acknowleding aboriginal title for the Musqueam First Nations across most of Metro Vancouver. It was a “Landmark Agreement” according to the Feds, yet received zero mainstream media coverage. Why it received so little coverage we’ll never know, but we certainly have our theories.

After the agreement leaked on Twitter (X), it soon spread like wildfire, becoming too large to ignore.

We then learned David Eby was at the signing ceremony, but was unaware of the contents of the agreement. The Feds say he was briefed weeks ago. The Squamish First Nations says they’ll be challenging the agreement, and homeowners were told there was nothing to worry about. Just ignore the circus.

Anyways, here’s what you need to know. We interviewed First Nations legal expert Tom Isaac on the Loonie Hour this week. Nobody knows more about First Nations law than Tom. Full interview here.

In short, aboriginal title is a “senior” interest that can burden the land and said key Land Title Act protections for private lands like indefeasibility don’t apply against it. That was the legal ruling in the BC supreme court in the Richmond/ Cowichan land claim. This puts serious clout over the property market across Metro Vancouver because the rights agreement doesn’t specifically state which lands are actually deemed to have aboriginal title. All we know is that Musqueam have “rights and title” within the asserted Musqueam territory, which is most of Metro Vancouver. There is also no legal wording in the agreement which specifically limits aboriginal title to just public lands.

Why our publicly elected officals are actively entering into land agreements without consent, let alone public consultation with its voter base is bewildering. Yet nobody speaks up out of fear of upsetting the reconciliation apple cart.

Anyways, from a Real Estate perspective it’s impossible to say how this will all play out. Although it’s certainly not helping with investor confidence, in a market that is already languishing.

Home sales fell again in February, dropping 9% year-over-year, and settling at their third lowest levels in the past 25 years.

Home prices slid 7% from last year, although that figure is underreporting the true extent of it.

To be fair, it’s not just Vancouver though. It’s nearly nationwide.

An article in the Globe & Mail highlighted the insolvency crisis plaguing the development community. According to data from the commercial real estate data firm Altus Group, 119 “distressed sale” transactions were recorded in 2023 across the country, totalling properties worth $767-million. In 2024, those numbers rose to 191 transactions worth more than $1.5-billion. Last year, 252 distressed sales were registered, totalling more than $1.42-billion.

Altus Group VP Raymond Wong said they define “distress sales” as ones that involve a court proceeding – creditor protection, receivership, foreclosure, power of sale – so the data does not include, for example, a property sold by an owner at a heavy discount due to financial distress.

The asset class seeing the most distress is development land, primarily because new home sales are virtually non-existent. Remember they hit 45 year lows in Toronto last year.

Part of that reason is because resale prices continue to gap down at a much quicker pace, a pace that developers simply can’t match. This is ultimately rendering pre-sale product uncompetitive against the rest of the market. Toronto resale condo prices are now down 25% from the peak.

Therefore the beatings will continue until morale improves.

We acknowledge the traditional territory… and increasingly the receiver.

Steve Saretsky March 9th, 2026

Posted In: Steve Saretsky Blog

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