March 28, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for March 28, 2026

28 days and counting

Nymex WTI front-month futures traded as low as $55 in December and January, closed at ~$67 on February 27 before the initial attacks on Iran, and closed this week at ~$101, which is the highest weekly close since July 2022. That’s an increase of ~51% since the war started.

Nymex front-month gasoline futures are up ~58% since the war started.

ICE Brent front-month futures traded as low as ~$60 in December and January, closed at ~$72.50 on February 27, and closed this week at ~$114.50, which is the highest weekly close since June 2022. That’s an increase of ~58% since the war started.

On an inflation-adjusted basis, the current Brent price spike is not unusual.

The current Nymex WTI forward curve (black line) shows that front-month prices have risen much more than deferred-month prices, compared with the curve before the war started (red line). The forward market is expecting much lower prices over the next few months.

S&P futures reached a record high of ~7,000 in January and early February, and closed at ~6,900 on February 27. The market opened lower on March 2, but closed higher on the day (blue ellipse), perhaps thinking that the war would be over quickly. Friday’s close at ~6,400 is down ~8.5% from the January highs, and was the lowest weekly close since July 2025.

The DJIA is down more than 10% from its record highs in mid-February, with its lowest weekly close since August 2025.

The energy sector is surging higher as the broad indices are falling.

The DXY US Dollar Index hit a 4-year low near the end of January (blue ellipse) as precious metals and the S&P were making all-time highs. It rallied ~2% in February and another ~2% in March (safe-haven flows?).

The Canadian Dollar rallied ~3.5% in 8 trading days in late January (as the USD was falling sharply against all currencies). It weakened in February, then initially rallied in early March when the Iran war began (I called it a petro-currency!), but since then, the CAD has just been one of many currencies that have tumbled against the USD as the Iran war continued.

Before the Iran war started, December 2026 SOFR futures were pricing two 25 bps cuts from the Fed by December 2026. The forward markets are now pricing a possible increase in short rates before the end of the year, due to expectations that sharply higher energy prices may feed through to higher inflation.

Treasury bond futures were near 12-month highs at the beginning of March, but tanked as energy prices soared. The 30-year yield touched an 8-month high of 5% on Friday.

Bond VOL (the MOVE index) has risen sharply in March.

Gold hit record highs at the end of January at ~$5,600, but fell as much as $1,400 (~25%) to last week’s lows. It is now ~$4,500. It seems “counterintuitive” for gold prices to fall sharply while a war is raging in the Middle East and crude oil prices are sharply higher. This may be a function of 1) gold rising “too high, too quickly” on speculative buying in January, resulting in “margin call” selling as prices fell, 2) selling by Middle Eastern accounts that needed to raise cash, and/or 3) profit-taking by long-term holders (Central Banks/SWFs) who saw weaker prices while a war raged on as a “tell” that prices had topped out. If governments continue to debase their currencies by running fiscal deficits, the gold market will likely resume its rally at some point.

Headline risk is huge and hard to hedge. Markets seem to be “de-risking” ahead of the weekends, and next weekend is the three-day Easter weekend following the end of Trump’s 10-day extension. Private credit concerns seem to be spreading and are adding to the negative tone set by the war. The market wants a “de-escalation,” but has consistently been “under-pricing” a hotter and longer-lasting war. The Houthis firing ballistic missiles at Israel this weekend is more bad news. At some point, there will be a resolution, but at what cost?

My short-term trading

I started this week short OTM bond puts that I put on near the lows last Friday. I closed out the position on Wednesday for a decent gain when the market rallied, and I was flat going into this weekend.

I haven’t done much trading this month because the war has made it much harder to manage risk. I’ve missed some great moves, but my trading account has more money than it did at the end of February. There will be more opportunities in the days and weeks ahead.

Thoughts on trading

Stephen Innes is a Canadian living and trading in Thailand. He has decades of trading experience, and I enjoy his daily market comments. Here’s a link to an excellent piece he wrote about cognitive bias.

The Barney report

Barney loves to chase a ball, and he’s getting better at bringing it back to me after I throw it. Here he is, taking a rest after twenty minutes of ball chasing.

Listen to Mike Campbell and me discuss markets

On this morning’s Moneytalks show, Mike and I discussed the reaction to various markets since the start of the Iran war. You can listen to the entire show here. My spot with Mike starts around the 1-hour, 6-minute mark.

Listen to Jim Goddard and me discuss markets

I recorded my monthly 30-minute interview with Jim Goddard on the This Week In Money show yesterday. Jim and I discussed energy, stocks, currencies, interest rates, gold and private credit markets. You can listen here. My spot with Jim starts around the 10-minute mark.

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Victor Adair retired from the Canadian brokerage business in 2020 after 44 years and is no longer licensed to provide investment advice. Nothing on this website is investment advice for anyone about anything.

Victor Adair March 28th, 2026

Posted In: Victor Adair Blog

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