March 14, 2026 | Tech Talk for Saturday March 14th 2026

The Bottom Line

The S&P 500 and TSX Composite Index have a history of reaching a seasonal low in mid-March (with the S&P 500 Index outperforming the TSX Composite until mid-December). What about this year?

• Short term (20 days) momentum indicators for both indices are deeply oversold.  OnFriday, the S&P 500 indicator dropped to 23.21% and the TSX indicator dropped to 26.73%. An indicator below 40.00% is considered oversold. However, both indicators are trending down and have yet to show significant signs of bottoming.
• U.S. analysts continue to raise their quarterly and annual earnings and revenue 2026 estimates for S&P 500 companies. Gains are projected to accelerate as the year progresses. See consensus estimates in the report below.
• The VIX Index spiked to 31.30% last week and remained elevated on Friday at 27.19%,
  implying that U.S. equity market risk remains elevated.

Conclusion: North American equity markets are approaching important seasonal lows, but more technical evidence of a low is needed. A significant drop in the VIX Index and a significant recovery in short term momentum indicators will trigger a seasonal buying opportunity. Prior to confirmation of a buying opportunity, caution is advised for traders and investors.

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Don Vialoux March 14th, 2026

Posted In: Tech Talk

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