March 20, 2026 | Bonds Prepare to Stop the War

This is feeling more and more like the 1970s.
A Middle-East war descends into chaos, causing oil prices to approach triple digits…

…and bond yields to spike:

The war’s cost and complexity are causing political turmoil:
Cracks emerge in GOP over Iran war cost as administration floats more than $200B request to Congress
(CNN) – Cracks are emerging among congressional Republicans over the Iran war with key lawmakers skeptical about spending hundreds of billions of dollars to prolong the conflict and several refusing to support any money without a clear White House strategy.
In the coming weeks, President Donald Trump could ask Congress to spend as much as $200 billion to fund the ongoing war. But it will be enormously difficult to pass. GOP leaders do not believe they have the votes to fund the war even in their own party without far more detailed plans from the White House, according to multiple people involved in those preliminary discussions.
Trump previewed the funding request on Thursday, saying he wants to ensure the military has “vast amounts of ammunition” but without offering specifics on what the Pentagon needed the funding for.
“We want to be in the best shape, the best shape we’ve ever been in,” Trump said from the Oval Office Thursday. “It’s a small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top.”
The Pentagon has asked the White House to approve a request to Congress for over $200 billion in additional military funding to fund the ongoing war, according to two sources familiar with the matter. It will likely be days, if not weeks, before that request comes to Congress. Yet already, many lawmakers – even some Republicans – appear skeptical of approving such a large sum, particularly since the Trump administration has yet to seek Capitol Hill’s approval for the war with Iran, which is about to enter its fourth week. The White House and Pentagon have yet to articulate a clear timeline for ending military operations, which is a major concern inside the Capitol, sources said.
This comes with US government deficits stuck at 6% of GDP, a level until recently viewed as a crisis:

Massive Global Tax Increase
Higher oil prices and interest rates combine to increase the cost of doing pretty much everything for pretty much everyone.
Multiple countries now face a countdown to the day that they run out of oil. See this List of countries most in danger of running out of oil as US-Iran war rages on.
Some of these countries are also dumping Treasury bonds to pay current bills (hence the rise in US interest rates).
A Bear Market in Trust
In the 1970s, the idea took hold that capitalism and democracy were failed ideologies, and free markets would soon be replaced by top-down central planning. This time around, trust in the expert class (i.e., those who manage the big systems, including fiat currencies and the US military empire) is evaporating.
The result? A “rhyming” repeat of the late 1970s, when interest rates and gold both spiked as confidence in the dollar and those managing it collapsed. Which is another way of saying interest rates spiked as bonds rebelled. So watch Treasuries, and keep stacking.
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John Rubino March 20th, 2026
Posted In: John Rubino Substack

