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ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION

November 3, 2025 | Perched in the Danger Zone

Robert Campbell

Robert Campbell is a real estate analyst and economist. He's been publishing The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter since 2002. His book (Timing the Real Estate Market) presents a clearly defined method for predicting the peaks and valleys of real estate cycles.

 

 

Most people are worried about missing upside, not downside. 

And usually to their detriment.

 

 

The chart shows the two-year time period (1990-1992) that I made my biggest profit ever in real estate.  As shown HERE, my net profit was $600,000 – and my ROI was 100%. 

Could I do something similar in today’s market?

Maybe, but probably not.  Nor would I be eager to try. 

First off, that same ordinary home I paid $500K for in 1990 would cost around $3.5 million today. Second, if I had to spend $300K to $400K to make that ordinary home beautiful and amazing, I would have to sell the property for almost $8 million to make the same 100% ROI as I did in the early 1990’s – and I doubt that would be possible.

But after what I anticipate will be a sizable correction in California home prices, I would be willing to buy that home for $2 million, put $300K into it, and then sell it for $4.5 to $5 million a year or two later.

Creating value in a low risk market.  It doesn’t get any better than that.

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