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August 28, 2025 | A Tale of Two Bay Area Condo Investors

Robert Campbell

Robert Campbell is a real estate analyst and economist. He's been publishing The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter since 2002. His book (Timing the Real Estate Market) presents a clearly defined method for predicting the peaks and valleys of real estate cycles.

 

In 2003, two young men graduated from Cal Berkeley in Oakland, California.

They were much alike – both were above average students  – and as young college graduates are – they were filled with ambition and dreams for the future.

As it turned out, both men happened to purchase the same condominium unit (#504) in a building located at 2407 Telegraph Ave over the next 21 years.

Here’s how each man fared on his purchase of Condo Unit #504

Even though there were signs the CA housing market was over-priced and nearing a top, one man purchased Unit #504 for 380,000 in Sept 2004.

Following a subsequent 55% fall in CA housing prices, the property went into foreclosure and back to the bank – for a total loss of his 2004 investment.

After watching the market go down for five years, the other man observed bottoming signs that the price decline was likely over – so he purchased Unit #504 in October 2010 for $62,000 (via a short-sale from the bank).

Today this man has his property listed for sale at $389,000.

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