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December 6, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for December 6, 2025

Run it hot The rally in risk assets is supported, in part, by ideas that governments around the world will “Run It Hot” (with stimulative fiscal and monetary policies) to ramp up economic growth as they try to outrun the consequences of the global sovereign debt crisis.   The “debasement trade” involves buying risk assets as a […]

December 6, 2025 | This Week in Money

  • Ross Clark:   Stock Markets, Copper, Gold, Oil, Bitcoin, USD, Canadian Dollar.
  • Victor Adair: (14:48)  Copper, Gold, Silver, Natural Gas, AI.
  • Rick Ackerman:  (48:07) Silver, Bitcoin, US Economy, Stock Markets.

December 5, 2025 | The Yen Carry Trade Unwind Threatens Global Markets

The Shifting Dynamics of the Yen Carry Trade The central thesis is that the decades-long assumption of near-zero Japanese interest rates and a weak Japanese yen (JPY)—the two pillars of the yen carry trade—are now collapsing. 1. The Historical Carry Trade Setup Borrowing: Traders borrowed vast sums in Japanese yen at a near-zero interest rate. Investing: They converted the borrowed […]

December 5, 2025 | Well-Earned Mean-Reversion Continues in Real Estate

From 1975 through the early 2000s, Canadian median home prices rose broadly in line with median inflation–adjusted household income. Where home prices outpaced income gains in the late 1970s and 1980s, the disconnect was short-lived, before prices corrected more than 30%. From 2000 to 2022, Canadian home prices (shown in red below through Q2 2021) increased by 375%—46% of that from 2020-22—while the average Canadian […]

December 5, 2025 | Several Sectors of US Economy Already in Recession

Will there be one last hurrah before stock markets correct?

December 4, 2025 | Housing Bubble #2

                 High price, high risk.                  It’s the same old story since the world began.

December 4, 2025 | Japanese Bond Market Worrying Wall Street

Will Cryptos skyrocket or crash?

December 4, 2025 | A Financial Nuclear Bomb is About to Explode

Any safe havens if markets implode

December 3, 2025 | Putin Ignores Maduro’s Request for Help

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in another proxy war. The Association of Tour Operators of Russia confirmed that the government is sending flights to Venezuela to remove nationals immediately. Tourism from Russia to Venezuela has grown in recent years, with over 6,000 Russians visiting Margarita Island between August and November this year. Moscow […]

December 2, 2025 | Got Gold For The Coming Reckoning?

“China has been understating its gold reserves by possibly a factor of 10. I believe this is the biggest story in world finance. The West is either asleep at the wheel or ignoring it.” – Dominic Frisby The Financial Times reported that China is under-reporting their gold reserves, subversively hiding the fact they have accumulated […]

December 1, 2025 | Canada Struggles with the Legacy of ‘Easy Money’

Canada’s economy (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 2.6% in the third quarter of 2025  after a 1.8% contraction in the second quarter (shown below, courtesy of The Globe and Mail).Consensus expectations were for a much smaller.50% Q3 increase and the upside surprise helped Canada officially avoid two consecutive quarters of GDP decline (a […]

November 30, 2025 | Bear Sighting Was Premature

Like UFOs and Bigfoot, far more bear market sightings are imagined than real. I thought I’d spotted Papa Bear myself when Nvidia announced terrific earnings a couple of weeks ago, only to see their shares reverse and dive sharply after a deceptive spike higher. Was this the needle prick that burst the AI bubble? It […]

November 29, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for November 29, 2025

Leading global stock indices bounced back this week following the recent “excessive optimism purge” The S&P reached record highs on October 9, but tumbled on the 10th amid China’s threat to withhold essential rare earths (blue ellipse). The market rallied back on AI enthusiasm and gapped higher over the October 24/25 weekend (pink ellipse) to reach new record […]

November 29, 2025 | This Week in Money

November 28, 2025 | Pipeline Politics Meets Demand Reality

Alberta and Ottawa’s sweeping new energy accord, signed by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Danielle Smith, is being framed as a nation‑building effort Alberta and Ottawa’s sweeping new energy accord, signed by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Danielle Smith, is being framed as a nation‑building effort to position Canada as a global energy […]

November 28, 2025 | Why Your Portfolio Might Go Higher in December

Silver and Lithium streaking higher

November 28, 2025 | Is the Santa Claus Market Rally a Myth?

Why October inflation plunged

November 27, 2025 | Happy Thanksgiving

 

November 26, 2025 | Training AI vs. Inference AI

Artificial intelligence (AI) isn’t one big process – it’s like a two-part job: training (teaching the AI) and inference (using what it learned). Each part needs different computer hardware, called chips, which is why companies like Nvidia and AMD lead in some areas, while others compete elsewhere. For investors, understanding this split helps spot opportunities […]

November 25, 2025 | Connecting The Dots….Reveals A Dire Picture

Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off […]

November 24, 2025 | Happy Third Birthday, AI Mania

November marks the third anniversary of ChatGPT, OpenAI’s AI language model. Since the fall of 2022, competitor models have been released, including Claude (Anthropic), Gemini (Google), Copilot (Microsoft), Llama-based systems (Meta ecosystem), Mistral (Europe) and others. OpenAI and its partners have been pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into new data centers in the United […]

November 23, 2025 | Trump’s 28-Point Peace Plan

  Peace is on the table—my detailed outline for ending the Russia-Ukraine-NATO war has been read and received by Moscow and Washington. Peace only emerges when both sides have something to gain and nothing to lose by walking away from war. Washington is listening; the Trump Administration’s 28-point peace plan for Russia successfully changed the […]

November 22, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for November 22, 2025

Volatile price action in leading global stock indices At Friday’s lows, the S&P was down ~6% from the October all-time highs, and the NAZ was down ~9%. Aggressive bullish sentiment and positioning in AI fuelled the run to October’s highs, but prices began to slip in November amid concerns about massive capex expenditures. Bulls were hoping NVDA […]

November 22, 2025 | This Week in Money

November 21, 2025 | Nvidia Earnings: Strong Results, Stronger Expectations

Nvidia once again reminded investors why it sits at the center of today’s market narrative. Late Wednesday, the chipmaker reported fiscal third‑quarter results that exceeded Wall Street’s expectations and offered a revenue outlook for the January quarter that was even more impressive.   Source: FactSet For the October quarter, Nvidia posted adjusted earnings per share […]

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