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October 11, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for October 11, 2025
Leading global equity indices (and other risk assets) tumble on a sharp rise in US/China trade tensions China’s announcement of comprehensive restrictions on rare earth exports on Thursday had little impact on equity markets (but gold and silver tumbled). However, Trump’s aggressive social media response on Friday morning sparked a relentless day-long decline across equity markets. Trump […]
October 10, 2025 | Canadian Pipelines: Good Bad Ugly and Nightmares
Pipelines: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Another pipeline fantasy rises from the political graveyard. Premier Danielle Smith is pitching a “ghost” pipeline to the West Coast — no sponsor, no permits, vague route, no funding. It’s Northern Gateway all over again. Canada’s pipeline history is a mix of ambition, divisive politics, and staggering […]
October 10, 2025 | Trump’s Deportation Efforts
President Donald Trump inherited a nation that was invaded. The invaders were incentivized to stay and permitted to coast under the radar. His administration was forced to throw down the gauntlet and forcibly remove the people who were invited to stay by the Democrats. New data indicate that ICE has removed approximately 600,000 migrants since […]
October 9, 2025 | China Purchased $38B from the US in Semiconductor Chips
Taiwan’s global dominance of semiconductor chip manufacturing has been at the forefront of the US-China technology war. The focus has been on Taiwan, leaving other avenues of Chinese influence ignored. China used loopholes in US law to purchase over $38 billion in chip-making technology in the last year alone, marking a 66% rise in […]
October 8, 2025 | Round and Round The AI Mulberry Bush
OpenAI currently has a market value of $500 billion, with annualized revenue reported at $10 billion per year. It is not expected to be profitable for another 4 or 5 years and is preparing to raise tens of billions of dollars in debt to fund infrastructure plans. Moody’s has recently flagged the extent to which […]
October 8, 2025 | Warmonger Think Tanks
The latest from the Neocon Fake News, ISW (Institute for the Study of War) started by Victoria Nuland’s sister-in-law, is always the same. Russia is weak; it is about to collapse, but at the same time, they are about to attack NATO, so we should invade now. The new line is “ISW specialists suggest Moscow is […]
October 7, 2025 | Recession Watch: How Is This Economy Still Growing?
The stock market is a pretty good barometer of economic health…except when it’s contradicted by employment. Currently, even profitable companies aren’t hiring: When job openings dry up, the unemployed stay that way for longer: Government hiring usually counteracts weakness in the private sector. But not this time: The longer someone is unemployed, the harder it […]
October 7, 2025 | How The AI Bubble Will Pop and Why We Should All Care
The AI infrastructure boom is the most important economic story dominating the news. However, the numbers don’t add up, and that realization is starting to spread. Read more in, This is How the AI Bubble Will Pop: Tech companies are projected to spend about $400 billion this year on infrastructure to train and operate AI models. […]
October 7, 2025 | The EU No-Confidence Vote on Ursula
COMMENT #1: Hi Martin, Macron is totally cornered tonight, and 62% of the French people are now demanding his resignation. With all the panic cycles showing up in multiple markets in 3 weeks only, may God help us if the petit Napoleon doesn’t take us into war with his other European parasite friends to […]
October 6, 2025 | Market Pulse: AMD, Gold, Bitcoin & the S&P 500
A quick review of some key market sectors. AMD AMD surged today on the news that OpenAI will ~ $100 billion in AMD. The deal also grants OpenAI a warrant to acquire up to 160 million AMD shares – roughly 10% of the company – at $0.01 per share, with the stake earned progressively as key technology and revenue milestones […]
October 6, 2025 | Millions Sign Petition to Dismantle UK Digital ID System
The people of the United Kingdom are fighting back against the government’s plan to roll out a digital ID system. The petition to counter the legislation quickly became the fastest-growing online petition in UK history, with over two million people signing in less than 48 hours. “We demand that the UK Government immediately commits […]
October 6, 2025 | Breakthroughs: Is Aging a Curable Disease?
The Fountain of Youth might predate gold as humanity’s earliest obsession. But here we are, 10,000 years into the quest with little to show for it. Some common-sense lifestyle tweaks (stay slim, exercise, manage stress, don’t smoke) are worth maybe an extra decade of active life. But no magic bullet of any kind has emerged. […]
October 6, 2025 | Consumer Collapse in Motion
Add leverage and stir has been the recipe for economic expansion at all costs; thus, the seeds of a credit implosion have been planted (again). We reap what we sow, and so it goes. In this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman interviews Lakshmi Ganapathi from Unicus Research. They discuss why U.S. consumers are […]
October 6, 2025 | Unsold Inventory Steve Saretsky
Happy Monday Morning! Last week we penned an article titled ‘Intervention Required’ in which we highlighted the growing chorus of developers demanding immediate government intervention to arrest the collapse in the new housing industry. With home sales in Canada’s largest major metro running 90% below the long term average, things are starting to get out […]
October 5, 2025 | Interview: Gold $5K, Dow 65K, & Florida’s New Wall Street — Part 2 Armstrong Unfiltered
If you missed Part 1 click here
October 5, 2025 | Big Debt Cycles
Debt is a curse that can also be a blessing, depending on how the borrower uses it. Sadly, human nature seemingly ensures we often use debt unproductively—and not just as individuals. Governments have their own special way of using debt to buy benefits (and votes?) today that future generations will pay for. I have said […]
October 4, 2025 | The Trading Desk Notes for October 4, 2025
Leading global stock indices surge to record highs The S&P has rallied ~40% from its April lows, up ~13.5% YTD. The S&P is up ~5.5% since the FOMC cut rates on August 22 (blue ellipse), and signalled more cuts to come over the next few months. Big Cap Tech/AI continues to power the rally in US stocks, […]
October 4, 2025 | How a Fed Overhaul Could Eliminate the Federal Debt Crisis, Part I: The Fed’s Hidden Drain
From Scheerpost The Federal Reserve’s independence is currently being challenged by political forces seeking to reshape its mandate. The Fed has not always been independent of Congress and the Treasury. Its independence was formalized only in 1951, with a Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord that was not a law but a policy agreement redefining the relationship of […]
October 4, 2025 | AI at its Finest
October 4, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday October 4th 2025
The Bottom Line The calm before the storm! Frequency of quarterly reports by North American companies reaches a low point this week: Many companies are in the “quiet zone” period prior to release of results. Consensus shows that analysts are expecting lower earnings growth in the third quarter relative to the second quarter when earnings […]
October 3, 2025 | Cut Throat Competition in China Could Spread Worldwide
China’s War on “Involution” China is cracking down on “blind and disorderly competition,” also called involution. Factories keep building too much — solar, batteries, EVs — and prices collapse. That deflation spills abroad. How low can China push prices — and who gets crushed next? Western firms know the rule: compete with China and prices only […]
October 3, 2025 | DDB: Economic Cracks are Widening
Worthwhile macro update in this segment. Danielle DiMartino Booth, former Fed insider and CEO of QI Research, warns that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly with rising unemployment and corporate bankruptcies despite stock markets reaching new highs. Here is a direct video link.
October 3, 2025 | Taiwan Declines US Demand to Offshore Chip Production
The threat of losing military protection did not persuade Taiwan to move half its chip manufacturing to the United States. Top trade negotiator and vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun stated that the 50-50 proposal would not be considered or even discussed. Instead, Taiwan plans to focus on lowering US-imposed tariffs that now stand at 20%. Commerce […]
October 2, 2025 | Canada Joins UK With Up to Life in Prison for Hate Speech
In Canadian criminal law, “hate crimes” are not a single stand-alone offence, but rather ordinary criminal offences (like assault, mischief, or threats) that are motivated by bias, prejudice, or hatred. Some are specific indictable offences in the Criminal Code: Advocating genocide – s. 318: It is an indictable offence to advocate or promote genocide against […]
October 1, 2025 | Art of the Collapse, October 2025
Things took a dark turn in September. We’ll get to that. But first, the usual corruption and incompetence: Dashboard Now for that dark(er) turn, starting with a Ukrainian woman being stabbed to death on a train… …which was quickly followed by the Charlie Kirk assassination: Universities Quietly Cancel ‘Kill Conservatives 101’ Courses (BabylonBee) – In […]