September 20, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday September 20th 2025

The Bottom Line “Sell on Rosh Hashanah, buy on Yum Kippur”: Ancient Jewish saying related to U.S. equity markets! It predicts a brief period of seasonal weakness for U.S. equity markets. This year, the period is from Monday September 22nd to Wednesday October 1st. The saying coincides closely with the weakest two week period in […]

September 19, 2025 | Coffee Prices on the Rise

Coffee prices are the latest grocery item troubling American consumers. The United States is the world’s largest importer of coffee, but produces less than 0.1% of all coffee for domestic consumption, importing over $8.2 billion (1.6 metric tons) of coffee last year alone. The average retail price of coffee spiked 21% in the past year, […]

September 19, 2025 | Powell Only Has Bad and Worse Options

Powell’s Quandary: Bad and Worse Options Chair Jerome Powell of the U.S. Federal Reserve admits he is in a bind: the economy is flashing both weak job numbers and rising inflation. What’s a Fed to do? This week the Fed trimmed its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.125 percent — still about 1.4 […]

September 19, 2025 | The 4th Monkey

September 19, 2025 | Will Demographics Fix Inequality?

We Baby Boomers are no longer the biggest generation. Millennials and Gen Z now outnumber us: But when it comes to wealth, we rule. Thanks to the past few decades’ asset price inflation, we’ve accumulated an aggregate net worth that surpasses all other generations combined. No wonder young people don’t trust the system. Here’s a […]

September 18, 2025 | Fed Rate Cuts – All About Jobs

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to lower rates by 25 bps at the September meeting, citing “that downside risks to employment have risen.” I reported in December 2024 that the computer had forecast a decline in employment during the incoming Trump Administration. Based on the most recent data, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, […]

September 17, 2025 | High Hopes on Central Bank ‘Fixers’

Like last September, financial markets have high hopes for rate cuts and dovish comments from the US Fed and Bank of Canada today. Futures markets are pricing 150 basis points of Fed cuts by the end of 2026 (taking Fed policy down to 2.75% to 3%) and 75 basis points from the Bank of Canada […]

September 17, 2025 | A National Divorce

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene voiced a harsh truth: America is a divided nation. These differences appear irreconcilable, and Greene is proposing “a peaceful national divorce.” Which state will file the papers first? The computer system warned long ago that the United States would not remain as one country indefinitely. The cycle of political disintegration is […]

September 16, 2025 | Stock Owners Have Learned To Love The Bomb

Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 7%. Today, S&P 500 pricing assumes a forward 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 15% (Rosenberg Research). Leveraging this extraordinary optimism, the S&P 500 is trading at more than 23x 5-year forward earnings expectations, some 28% above the longer-term historical […]

September 16, 2025 | Appeals Court Revokes Temporary Protected Status for Migrants

After months of legal turmoil, the 1st US Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that the United States can secure its borders and has the right to end the temporary legal protections granted to migrants under the Biden Administration. Joe Biden provided 430,000 migrants from Haiti, Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua with temporary protected status (TPS). […]

September 15, 2025 | Cushioning the Downfall

Happy Monday Morning! As we discussed in our note last week, the economy is contracting and job losses are mounting, and so it’s chopping Time Again. The Bank of Canada is on deck with markets pricing in nearly 80% odds of a 25bps rate cut. According to BMO, there could be more coming. “We see […]

September 15, 2025 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel

September 15, 2025 | Former President Jair Bolsonaro Sentenced to 27 Years

  Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been sentenced to 27 years in prison for allegedly plotting a coup to overturn the presidential election. Politicians who defy the new world order are silenced through assassination or imprisonment. This has become a worldwide phenomenon, from Germany to Brazil, as politicians who rebuke the globalist agenda are […]

September 14, 2025 | Interview with Daniel Estulin

September 14, 2025 | Recession Watch: Brutal Job Market

It seems that (surprise!) the US government has been systematically overstating job growth and then (when no one was looking) revising the numbers down to much lower, more ominous levels. The following chart shows the size and consistency of those revisions, resulting in over a million fewer jobs than initially reported. And it’s still happening. […]

September 14, 2025 | ‘Guise’

I’m in San Francisco, taking a break from Florida’s insufferable summer heat, but also from my weekly commentaries. Writing regularly about the impending collapse of the stock market, Wall Street hubris and the fatally diseased economy had grown boring and depressing, and so, at least for the time being, I will be substituting more entertaining […]

September 14, 2025 | Images, Words & Narratives Matter

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” ― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin     “What we’ve got here is… failure to communicate. Some men you just can’t reach. So you get what we had here last week, which is the way he wants it… well, he gets it. I don’t […]

September 13, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for September 13, 2025

The highest conviction trade in the world The highest conviction trade in the world is that the Fed will cut short-term rates by 25 basis points next week as it begins an easing cycle that will take interest rates down ~100 basis points by early 2026, and perhaps by ~150 basis points by late 2026. The […]

September 13, 2025 | Poland Sends 40,000 Troops to the Border

  Poland is deploying about 40,000 soldiers on the borders with Belarus and Russia amid rising tensions after the Russian drone attack on September 10. Still, there are rumours that they have captured Russian drones and have deployed them to instigate a false flag. We cannot verify this rumour, but it is getting traction. Based […]

September 13, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday September 13th 2025

The Bottom Line  Focuses this week are on central bank announcements on Wednesday. The FOMC and Bank of Canada are expected to lower their lending rate to major banks by 0.25%. Stock and bond prices during the past two week in September have moved higher in anticipation of the change. A word of caution! U.S. […]

September 12, 2025 | Health Prepping: Big Pharma Gets What It Deserves

Alternative health guru Sayer Ji just published a small book’s worth of dirt on some manifestly evil companies. If he’s right — and generally speaking, I think he is — we’re witnessing poetic justice on a global scale. Here’s a tiny excerpt of the much longer post: Are We Witnessing Big Pharma’s Accelerating Collapse? Layoffs, Lawsuits, […]

September 12, 2025 | Bank Mortgage Lending Created The Canadian Housing Bubble

Substantial acceleration in bank mortgage lending for residential real estate was essential in creating the Canadian housing bubble. Now that the housing bubble is bursting new mortgage lending could slow or even decline. If the rate of increase in new mortgage debt slows sharply home prices will drop leading to a crash in the housing […]

September 12, 2025 | The Storm Hits The Art Market

The salad days of near-zero interest rates enabled excess demand and price-insensitive buying across most sectors all at once; that included art markets. After a euphoric frenzy peaked in 2022, art prices have been falling since, and a world of feeder sectors and businesses is contracting along for the ride. See, The Storm Hits the Art […]

September 11, 2025 | RIP Charlie Kirk (1993-2025)

  Political activist Charlie Kirk was murdered while speaking at Utah Valley University. Kirk, 31, leaves behind a wife and two small children. Violence against conservatives must come to an end. Democrats have been encouraging violence against their political opponents and their supporters. The world watched the gruesome death of Iryna Zarutska, whose killer was […]