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August 6, 2024 | Household Debt, Delinquencies, Collections, and Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors and their Debts in Q2
otal household debt outstanding in Q2 ticked up by $109 billion, or by 0.6%, from Q1 – the smallest percentage increase since Q2 2023, and the second smallest increase since Q1 2021 – to $17.8 trillion, according to the Household Debt and Credit Report from the New York Fed today. Year-over-year, total household debt grew […]
July 30, 2024 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, July 2024 Update. Below 2022 Peak: San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, Portland, Denver, Dallas, Las Vegas. New Highs: Miami, Los Angeles, San Diego…
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, released today for “May,” are three-month moving averages of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas whose sales were entered into public records in March, April, and May. So that’s the time frame. Over this period, home prices in all 20 metros increased from the prior month, in most […]
July 26, 2024 | Large Upward Revisions of “Core Services” PCE Inflation Pushed Six-Month “Core” PCE Inflation to 3.4%, Worst in a Year
The revisions, the upward revisions, oh-la-la! The Bureau of Economic Analysis released today the PCE price index for June; and as part of it, the “core” PCE price index – the Fed’s primary yardstick for inflation – was revised substantially higher for May, driven by a large upward revision of the “core services” PCE price […]
July 18, 2024 | Home Buyers Still on Strike even as Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest since March. But Refis Jump to Highest since Aug 2022
The average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate during the latest reporting week dropped to 6.87%, the lowest since mid-March, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today. Not so ironically, two things happened, as the MBA also reported today: Applications for mortgages to purchase a home fell to the lowest point since early June, as potential […]
July 12, 2024 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, June: A Rate Cut, and? Overall Prices Don’t Move, -14% from Peak, -3.4% YoY. Sales -9.4% YoY
The Bank of Canada cut its rates at the beginning of June, and not much happened in the Canadian housing market. Home sales rose by 3.7% in June from the beaten-down levels in May, seasonally adjusted. But year-over-year, home sales were down 9.4%, a sharper year-over-year decline than in May (-5.9%). New listings rose by […]
July 9, 2024 | Used Car & Truck Prices Spiral Down Further in Historic Plunge, Surrender 60% of Stunning 2-year Spike
Prices of used cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, and vans that were sold at auctions across the US fell by 0.6% in June from May, and by 8.9% year-over-year, to $17,934, seasonally adjusted, the lowest since March 2021, having given up 60%, or $5,640, of the mindboggling $9,443-spike between January 2020 and May 2022 (red in […]
July 5, 2024 | Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$34 Billion in June, -$1.74 Trillion from Peak, to $7.22 Trillion, Lowest since November 2020
otal assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $34 billion in June, to $7.22 trillion, the lowest since November 2020, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today. Since the end of QE in April 2022, the Fed has shed $1.74 trillion. At its FOMC meeting in May, the Fed outlined how it will slow […]
June 25, 2024 | Inflation in Canada Throws Another Curveball: Core CPI Spikes Month-to-Month by Most since 2022
When the Bank of Canada cut its policy rates by 25 basis points earlier in June, it based that cut on the inflation rates that had cooled sharply, and it based further cuts on these trends continuing. But leery of just the sort of reversal inflation dished up today, BOC governor Tiff Macklem said at […]
June 21, 2024 | Home Sales Sag Further, Hit by Mortgage Rates. Price Cuts & Active Listings Surge. Median Price Skewed by Surge in High-End Sales
Still dogged by mortgage rates milling around in the 7% neighborhood, and by people’s urge to wait for lower mortgage rates before buying, sales of existing homes of all types – single-family houses, townhomes, condos, and coops – fell further in May from April on a seasonally adjusted basis, to an annual rate of 4.11 […]
June 17, 2024 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, May 2024: Prices Drop Further, -14.4% from Feb 2022 Peak, -2.4% YoY, back to Sep 2021. Spring Rally Dud
Home prices in Canada edged down 0.2% in May from April, the ninth month in a row of declines, seasonally adjusted, according to the Composite MLS Home Price Index from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) today. Condo prices fell faster than single-family prices. From the peak in February 2022, the index is now down […]
June 10, 2024 | Used Car Wholesale Prices Continue Plunge, Gave up 59% of Pandemic Spike. But still up 35% from Jan 2020: EVs +72%, ICE Vehicles +34%
Used vehicle prices are in a historic downward spiral, unwinding the hugest-ever price spike that had built up during the pandemic. Despite the plunge, wholesale prices of vehicles sold at auction in May were still 35% above where they’d been in January 2020, according to Manheim, the largest auto auction house in the US. With […]
June 6, 2024 | Bank of Canada Cuts by 25 basis points, to 4.75% as Economy and Inflation Slowed. QT Continues
“With continued evidence that underlying inflation is easing,” the Bank of Canada said today that “monetary policy no longer needs to be as restrictive,” and it cut policy interest rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected. But QT will continue, the statement said. The BOC has already shed 64% of the securities it had […]