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July 20, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For July 20, 2024
Risk assets had a key turn date When several markets reverse course on or around the same date, I define that as a Key Turn Date (KTD). It signals a (profound) change in market sentiment/psychology/positioning. My favourite barometer of risk sentiment is the S&P 500 Index. S&P futures (and the cash market) closed at a record […]
July 13, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For July 13, 2024
Do you believe in mean regression? The NAZ is up ~50% from last October’s lows, 100% from the 2022 lows, and >200% from the 2020 lows. It’s up ~20X from the 2009 lows. At what point does mean reversion kick in, or does that never happen? The S&P has closed higher for 11 of the past […]
July 6, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For July 6, 2024
Big-cap tech leaves the rest of the market behind The NAZ closed green on each of the four days markets were open this week, once again powered by Big-cap tech. It is up ~21% YTD. The Russell 2000 closed lower this week and is slightly lower YTD. The DJIA, which includes AMZN, MSFT and AAPL, is […]
June 29, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For June 29, 2024
The bond market had a bad Friday This week, price action across asset classes was “mid-summer quiet” ahead of Thursday’s Presidential debate and Friday morning’s PCE report. There were no dramatic market moves immediately following the debate, and the PCE data early Friday was pretty much as expected, perhaps even a shade “benign” in that […]
June 22, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For June 22, 2024
NVDA goes to the top of the market cap leaderboard The total market cap of NVDA, MSFT, and AAPL is now over $10 trillion. NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, and META collectively are up ~45% YTD, representing ~25% of the S&P market cap and ~60% of S&P YTD gains (NVDA alone accounts for ~35% of the […]
June 8, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For June 8, 2024
Check your old-school assumptions at the door Market sentiment has been oscillating between believing that “higher for longer” is 1) dead or 2) will be indefinitely sustained. The oscillation frequency has shrunk from months (during the October to February period) to days (since mid-April), and this week, sentiment swung from pillar to post between Monday and […]
June 1, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For June 1, 2024
Let the cuts begin The Bank of Canada may announce a 25bps cut (from 5.25%) on Wednesday (markets are pricing a 75% chance), and the ECB is expected to announce a 25bps cut (from 4.50%) on Thursday. The Fed is not likely to cut rates at its June 12 meeting. The net speculative short positioning in Canadian dollar futures is […]