ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
October 30, 2023 | Structural Issues
Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada held interest rates at 5% for the second consecutive time. BoC’s Macklem flagged everything we’ve been highlighting in this newsletter for several months now. Weaker economic growth and a recent surge in global bond yields is doing most of the tightening for them. Adding, “The path […]
October 23, 2023 | Bell Ringer
Happy Monday Morning! It’s a big week for Canadian households living on the edge. The Bank of Canada is poised to meet on Wednesday to deliver an update on their rate hiking crusade. It is largely expected they’ll remain on the sidelines, as they should given the slew of weak economic data in recent weeks. […]
October 16, 2023 | The Vortex
Happy Monday Morning! At the beginning of the year I was part of a real estate pannel with REW on the state of the Vancouver housing market. On stage, in front of a live audience, the moderator asked me for my forecast for 2023. I promplty noted at the time that “we’re going to have a year […]
October 2, 2023 | The Naughty List
Happy Monday Morning! The housing crisis in this country gets a lot of attention, as it should. Fixing it, however, is proving to be rather difficult. Over the past several years we have attempted to beat demand over the head with a blunt instrument. The list of policy measures include, a foreign buyers tax, […]
September 18, 2023 | Play Ball
Happy Monday Morning! Over the past several months we’ve been highlighting the marked slowdown in residential building permits, a leading indicator of future supply. This is what happens when the cost of capital doubles, and in some cases, triples. Souce: Ben Rabidoux This is a disaster in the making for a federal government insistent on […]
September 11, 2023 | It Tastes Awful, and it Works
Happy Monday Morning! The Bank of Canada moved to the sidelines once again, appeasing premiers in BC & Ontario who publicly pleaded with the BoC last week. It’s no secret these two provinces have the most to lose, their coffers largely built on a highly levered housing market, but we’ll get to that in a […]
September 4, 2023 | Happy Monday Morning!
Happy Monday Morning! A few weeks ago we summarized the cabinet shuffle, arguing the replacement of both the housing minister and immigration minister was simply rearring deck chairs on the Titanic. When new immigration minister Marc Miller was repeatedly questioned about rampant immigration putting strains on infrastructure and housing, he noted, “I don’t see a world […]
August 28, 2023 | Tug of War
Happy Monday morning! This newsletter has been covering three big themes in the Canadian housing sector this year. In no particular order they are as follows, excessive immigration exacerbating a housing crisis, higher mortgage rates ironically trapping people in their homes, and the destruction of new housing supply brought forth by a trippling of interest […]
August 21, 2023 | Affordability Hell
Happy Monday Morning! Headline CPI inflation surprised to the upside this past week, pushing back up to 3.3% and well above market expectations of 3%. However, those who have been following along here will know the importance of base effects. When headline inflation fell to 2.8% last month we were quick to highlight some research […]
August 14, 2023 | Deck Chairs on the Titanic
Happy Monday Morning! It’s been a few weeks now since the Trudeau government shuffled his cabinet ministers, naming both a new housing minsiter and a new immigration minister. However, as we discussed a few weeks ago in my piece, Same Faces, Different Places, nothing has fundamentally changed. These are the same people, and the same policy […]