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December 9, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday December 9th 2023
The Bottom Line Focus this week is on U.S. economic news and its impact on interest rates: November CPI on Tuesday, November PPI on Wednesday, FOMC’s Fed Fund Rate on Wednesday and November Retail Sales on Thursday. If consensus holds, the stage is set for the proverbial Christmas Rally from December 15th to January 5th,
December 8, 2023 | Canada Limiting Oil and Gas Industry Emission
Canada has announced a plan to use a cap-and-trade system to impose greenhouse gas emission limits on its oil and gas industry. Under the “draft framework,” Canada will issue emissions allowances to oil and gas producers, which will be capped at levels between 35% and 38% below 2019 levels, beginning in 2030. The government […]
December 8, 2023 | Gold: $2000 Might Still Be Resistance
One of the fun things about bull markets is watching resistance levels turn into support. Gold, for instance, spent three years banging into $2000/oz and recently broke through, touching $2125 on December 1. Then the selling started, pushing the price down to, as this is written, $1997. If the “$2000 is now support” thesis holds, buyers will […]
December 8, 2023 | Canadian Lenders are Sleepwalking into The Next Recession
Canadian lenders are ill-prepared for the impact of higher interest rates on Canadian borrowers. The banks have sophisticated models that help them make predictions about the future. But those predictions are only as good as the assumptions fed into the model. Are those assumptions realistic? With the help of Nigel D’Souza, research analyst with Veritas […]
December 7, 2023 | Cost Of Living Outpaces Wage Increases
A recent study by Achieve revealed that despite a 37% increase in income, many Americans are facing financial challenges due to rising costs and high interest rates, leading to a surge in personal debt. The average monthly participation in debt resolution programs increased by 119% in the first nine months of 2023 compared to […]
December 7, 2023 | Lagged Effects of Epic Tightening Cycle Will Intensify in 2024
Equifax Canada reports that Canadian households added $80 billion of additional consumer debt over the past year, making the total outstanding an eye-watering $2.4 trillion. Well beyond paycheck to paycheck, many are living credit card to credit card. Money owed on credit cards climbed to a new high of $113.4 billion in the third quarter of […]
December 7, 2023 | More Evidence of a Silver Shortage
Recently, the Silver Institute updated its annual review on silver that it originally published in April. The report indicated a reduction in total supply (mine production plus recycling) and an increase in industrial demand. The new report indicates total silver supply for 2023 as being 23 million ounces less than originally reported, largely due to […]
December 6, 2023 | Subprime Comes Home to Roost for Specialized Auto Dealers, Lenders & Investors: Car-Mart Was Next to Confess
Subprime is re-getting into trouble, after having somewhat gotten out of trouble during the free-money pandemic, when folks used some of the free money to catch up with past-dues. In the auto industry, subprime is largely confined to older used vehicles. Less than 5% of new vehicle sales are financed with loans or leases to […]
December 6, 2023 | Moody’s Downgrades Chinese Debt
Moody’s has downgraded the outlook on China’s credit rating from “stable” to “negative” due to concerns about the country’s post-pandemic recovery, weak consumer and business confidence, a persistent housing crisis, and a global economic slowdown. The downgrade reflects the rising evidence that financial support will be provided by the government and wider public sector […]
December 6, 2023 | De-Dollarization Watch: It’s Definitely Happening
De-dollarization events that would once have been a big deal have become common lately. Some examples: UAE officially stops using dollar for oil trades (Watcher) – The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is asking BRICS countries to settle oil trade in local currencies and not the U.S. dollar. The Middle Eastern nation is aiming to diversify […]
December 6, 2023 | Economic Weakness is Leading Interest Rates Lower
This morning, weaker-than-expected US job creation in November adds to the growing list of negative economic surprises globally and reinforces the expectation that the Bank of Canada today and the US Fed next Wednesday will make no rate changes for the fifth consecutive meeting. Before this morning’s data, the futures market was pricing in 120 basis points […]
December 5, 2023 | Kerry – WEF – First Movers Coalition
John Kerry declared that America would adhere to the Power Past Coal Alliance and partner with 56 other nations in eliminating coal power. Kerry committed $3 billion to the cause which should come as no surprise since Kerry collaborated with the World Economic Forum to launch the First Movers Coalition (FMC) back at the […]
December 5, 2023 | Art of the Collapse, December 2023
Henry Kissinger died in November, launching a zillion memes: Back in the land of the alive but hungry, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman declared that inflation is not nearly as bad as ignorant Americans believe. Some begged to differ: A big holiday thanks to the FBI for protecting us from an upsurge in terrorist activity: FBI Closely […]
December 5, 2023 | Easing Cycles are No Quick Fix
After 475 basis points (bps) of rate hikes between March 2022 and July 2023, Canada’s economy has ground to a halt, with economic activity contracting at a 1.1% annualized rate in the third quarter. Per capita, Canadian GDP has contracted for the past five quarters (below courtesy of RBC Economics). The rate of change matters most, and […]
December 4, 2023 | Rate Cuts and Density
Happy Monday Morning! On the heels of inflation slowing to 3.1% last week, we got more evidence rate hikes are indeed working through the system. Demand continues to weaken, households have stopped borrowing money, and as a result, the economy is circling the drain. GDP fell at an annualized pace of 1.1% in Q3, well […]
December 3, 2023 | Digital IDs Ramping Up in Australia
Australian federal Finance Minister, Senator Katy Gallagher, has introduced legislation for a national digital ID. The new program aims to create a single platform that unites a person’s identification documents and connects it with government services such as myGov, Centrelink, and the Australian Tax Office. The government claims that the digital ID will have strong […]
December 3, 2023 | Healthcare, a Minor Major Problem
Back in the Great Financial Crisis era, someone quipped that the federal government had become a giant hedge fund with an army attached. That wasn’t far off. Various agencies and entities were absorbing all kinds of risky assets to stabilize an overleveraged system. It was ugly but worked, more or less…. with a heavy dose […]
December 3, 2023 | My Brash Call for a Top
They don’t ring a bell at the top, as the saying goes, but it’s hard to see how Mr. Market can avoid it this time. The stock market’s heedless, nutty short squeeze since October will end when Microsoft hits $430, probably early in the new year. It’s that simple. How do I know this? […]
December 2, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 2, 2023
Stocks, bonds and gold soar; the US Dollar falls as markets anticipate Central Bank cuts The DJIA has rallied ~4,000 points (~12.5%) in five weeks and is only ~2% away from All-Time Highs. It is up ~26% from October 2022 lows. The Nasdaq 100 has rallied ~13% in five weeks and is only ~5% away from ATH. […]
December 2, 2023 | US DC Court of Appeals Just Destroyed America
The legal system is clearly trying to absolutely destroy Donald Trump for simply going to Washington to “Drain the Swamp,” which he discovered included both sides. We now have a ruling that is so BIASED against Trump that it has now effectively removed all immunity for anyone in Congress and even prosecutors. All you […]
December 2, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday December 2nd 2023
The Bottom Line Momentum by North American equity markets remains strong during its current period of seasonal strength from late October to the first week in January. A word of caution! Strength frequently is damped temporarily by yearend transactions for tax purposes between now and December 15th. Thereafter, the Santa Claus rally ‘kicks in” until […]
December 1, 2023 | Canada Heads into an Economic Contraction
Canada’s economy is shrinking, based on per capita GDP numbers. GDP results showed a contraction for the quarter ending September 30, 2023. Is Canada in a recession? Will there be a household debt crisis? Canadian GDP numbers, adjusted for inflation and population growth, showed a negative result for the third quarter. This means that there’s […]
December 1, 2023 | Someday This Will Happen To Silver And Everything Will Change
In March 2022, there was a disruption in the nickel market that spiked the metal’s price. The lucky investors and market-makers who owned long futures contracts made fortunes. Just kidding. The exchange on which the futures traded canceled them and stiffed the contract owners. Some of the victims understandably brought suit and were awarded a […]
December 1, 2023 | Fauci to Testify Before Congress
Pandemic orchestrator and former NIH Director Anthony Fauci is set to testify before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic on January 8-9. Fauci has yet to appear before the 118th Congress for his involvement in the pandemic as his legal team successfully delayed the hearing for nearly a year. “Americans deserve trusted […]
December 1, 2023 | Sri-Kumar: Base Case is Something Breaks Soon
Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed’s inflation fight, why he believes the Fed will hold rates steady again at its next policy meeting because ‘they just don’t know what to do’, and more. Here is a direct video link.