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January 18, 2024 | Canadian Home Prices and Rents Amid Much Needed Mean-Reversion
Canadian home prices are retreating. In previously hot areas, properties are selling up to 20% below 2022 prices, but nationally, the average sale price was just -11.4% in the latest quarter. After an outrageous 59% average price increase nationally between Q1 2020 and Q1 2022, the mean-reversion prospects remain big from here. As shown below, courtesy […]
January 18, 2024 | Argentina to Permit Provinces to Create Own Currencies
COMMENT: It is apparent that you are advising Argentinian President Javier Milei on economic theories. You said at the WEC that we would eventually see local currencies. If you are not informing him directly, they attended the WEC. He even warned about irresponsible provinces resulting in inflation. That is what you explained. DA REPLY: I […]
January 18, 2024 | Nobody will be Safe if they are Vaccinated
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are mRNA vaccines, which contain tiny fragments of the genetic material known as “messenger ribonucleic acid.” There have been deep concerns that this entire technology may have long-term implications for human society. There was a Swedish study that tested whether the vaccine’s mRNA could be converted to DNA and […]
January 17, 2024 | In The Air
Considering that JPMorgan has just come off a three-year deferred criminal prosecution agreement with the Justice Department for price manipulation (spoofing) in silver, the customers that JPM is accepting delivery for on the Dec. and Jan. contracts would most likely be users as opposed to speculators. That’s because it would be much harder to accuse […]
January 17, 2024 | McDonald’s Bets on China
My humorous post about McDonald’s celebrating Davos with the McKlaus bug burger deluxe was a pretend advertisement, for now, but McDonald’s is a World Economic Forum partner. This is relevant as McDonald’s is the second-largest private employer in the world. Their chains run across 100 countries, in nearly 40,000 stores, serving about 69 million customers daily. The […]
January 17, 2024 | Outlook Weakening Under Equity Market Optimsim
January US Empire Manufacturing reading this morning was -43.7, much worse than the -5 estimated and much weaker than during the 2008 financial crisis/great recession. Meanwhile, the analyst consensus is for S&P earnings per share growth of more than 10 percent over the next 12 months (red line below since 2000, courtesy of Mikael Sarwe) even […]
January 16, 2024 | World Economic Forum is Greatest Threat to Humanity
Klaus Schwab is a notorious control freak. He is applying that trait to the entire world. His World Economic Forum has issued its 2024 “Global Risks Report,” where he has now declared that the NUMBER ONE threat to humanity is no longer war and Russia’s invasion of a pretend sovereign state, terrorism, or even […]
January 16, 2024 | Inflation in Canada Refuses to Cooperate with Rate-Cut Bets
Just how tough it is to get inflation down after the easy battles have been temporarily won is now being demonstrated in all kinds of places, including in Canada according to the CPI data released today, and including in the US, where services inflation is in no mood to go away. Services is where the […]
January 16, 2024 | Casino Capitalism and the Derivatives Market: Time for Another ‘Lehman Moment’?
Reading the tea leaves for the 2024 economy is challenging. On January 5th, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said we have achieved a “soft landing,” with wages rising faster than prices in 2023. But critics are questioning the official figures, and prices are still high. Surveys show that consumers remain apprehensive. There are other concerns. On […]
January 16, 2024 | The Great Taking, Part 2: More Heavyweights Chime In – Lots of Smart People Seem to Think it’s Legit
The Great Taking remains a fringe subject, mostly ignored by the mainstream media. But in the sound money community, a growing list of heavyweights have concluded that it’s legit. Here’s a video from GoldSilver’s Mike Maloney: Mark Jeftovic of The Bitcoin Capitalist recently posted an in-depth analysis, part of which is here: The Great Taking: the latest anti-mainstream conspiracy […]
January 16, 2024 | Rate Cuts Come as Demand-Driven Economy Slows
The Bank of Canada’s (BOC’s) Business Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter of 2023 found that 40% of Canadian companies were experiencing a slowdown in sales. Indicators of future sales – including order books, advance bookings, and sales inquiries – remain subdued. See: Bank of Canada surveys show weak business environment, lower inflation expectations. The dour outlook […]
January 15, 2024 | Gerrymandering – Are All Elections Fraudulent?
COMMENT: Marty, Just like leading the country in election cheating (this isn’t a great site to reference, but it does list some of the “irregularities” https://www.factcheck.org/2009/01/mining-the-minnesota-recount/). It appears Minnesota was also ahead of the con game with the results of the last census where Minnesota kept all its congressional seats even though it should have lost […]
January 15, 2024 | Two Year Warning
Happy Monday Morning! We’ve talked a lot about immigration in this newsletter over the past couple of years. Immigration in Canada has always been considered an economic strength, the fact that people want to move here in large numbers is a testament to the desirability of this great nation. However, in recent years something has […]
January 15, 2024 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Nationally -18% in December from Peak, Toronto -20%. Even in Calgary, House Prices Dropped. End of Easy Money
House prices in Canada have now fallen by 18% from the peak in March 2022 – or by $171,500 (all in Canadian dollars) – after the 1.2% drop in December from November, the sixth month-to-month drop in a row, according to the Home Price Benchmark Index for single family houses by the Canadian Real Estate […]
January 14, 2024 | Peaceful Resistance is Not Futile
The NYSE is closed today in remembrance of Martin Luther King Jr. King was a firm believer in peaceful resistance as a means to bring about social change, and he consistently emphasized the importance of unity and brotherhood among all people. King’s philosophy of nonviolent resistance was inspired by figures such as Mahatma Gandhi, and […]
January 14, 2024 | No Way Out
Having now spent almost six months describing the historical cycles and massive debt that surround us, I find myself looking for an “easy” exit. Maybe one exists, but I haven’t found it yet. I think we’re stuck. The building will have to collapse around us before we can leave. This is obviously not a great […]
January 14, 2024 | Deflating a Weak Argument Against Deflation
Reader Scott Baker took issue last week with my unsettling prediction of a deflationary bust. The mountain of debts that I believe will cause this is really no big deal, says Baker. He quotes economist Michael Hudson to back him up: “Debts that can’t be repaid, won’t be.” That certainly doesn’t sound very menacing. So […]
January 13, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For January 13, 2024
The cash S&P 500 index closed green for 10 of the last 11 weeks, registering an All-Time High weekly close Stock market sentiment and positioning are very bullish. Capital has flowed to “quality” stocks and away from unprofitable or “meme” stocks YTD. MSFT closed this week at an All-Time High with a market cap of ~$2.89 Trillion […]
January 13, 2024 | Britain Ready to Send Troops to Die for Ukraine
I have been warning that the West desperately needs to create World War III as an excuse to cover up their fiscal mismanagement since World War II, which will inevitably result in the collapse of sovereign debt. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has now gone to Kiev to sign a “defense agreement” committing British […]
January 13, 2024 | Recession Watch: Spiking Layoffs – Citigroup, Twitch, and Pixar, oh my…
Healthy economies have a natural background rate of hiring and firing, as employers adjust to changes in their environment. But when the firing part of the process starts to dominate, trouble frequently follows. This might be one of those times, based on the surge in layoff announcements by brand-name companies. Here’s a list that just […]
January 13, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday January 13th 2024
The Bottom Line Here come fourth quarter 2023 results by S&P 500 companies! Responses to results released to date have been mixed to slightly negative. Stocks that moved higher last week following release of results included Blackrock, Citigroup and Bank of New York Mellon. Stocks that moved lower included KB Homes, Delta Airlines, UnitedHealth Group, […]
January 12, 2024 | Death by Taxation for Gig Economy
The gig economy has exploded in recent years as people seek additional income to keep up with the rising living costs. The government has been attempting to exploit these workers for additional taxes for years. A new law implemented by the Biden Administration will force some businesses to classify gig workers as employees, raising costs for […]
January 12, 2024 | So… About Bitcoin
Everyone on Earth wishes they’d loaded up on Bitcoin back when it was, like, $10. The fact that most investors have chosen not to ride that particular rollercoaster can be attributed to two things. First, cryptocurrencies were complicated to buy and store safely, which put them beyond the reach of most non-techies (myself included). Second, […]
January 12, 2024 | The Speculative Commodity Boom That Might Have Been
The commodity boom that was expected by many in this period of elevated inflation has not happened. While inflation soared, reaching 10 percent annually in some countries, the prices of commodities that are often used by speculators to make quick profits have not kept pace. For example, gold and silver reached all-time highs during high […]
January 12, 2024 | Rate Cuts Come in Response To Intensifying Financial Strife
With inflation cooling and unemployment rising, rate cuts are coming into view. Permanent job losses have already accelerated in line with the onset of the past three recessions since 1995 (see arrows and grey bars below, courtesy of Game of Trades). Since 1969, the longest Fed pause time between the last rate hike and […]