September 26, 2025 | US GDP Rose 3.8% in Q3

US GDP grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2, surpassing estimates of 3.3%, leading the press to cheer a strong and robust economy. By design, the GDP calculation counts net exports as a positive. When imports collapse, GDP rises even though that is a signal of weakened consumer demand. Consumer spending rose by 2.5%, […]

September 26, 2025 | The Mag 7 are The Most Expensive Stocks Ever by a Wide Margin

Mag 7: The Most Expensive Stocks in History The top stocks in 2025 make the dot-com bubble leaders look cheap. Back in 2000, the leaders were Microsoft, GE, Cisco, Walmart, Exxon, Intel, and NTT. Today, it’s the “Magnificent 7” — Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla. Here’s the shocker: The Mag 7 is […]

September 26, 2025 | Gold at Technical Resistance

Gold is once again approaching major parallel trend line resistance – a key juncture for both short-term traders and long-term investors. After months of sharp gains, the charts now suggest a likely pullback. Parallel trend channels have historically provided strong support and resistance, and we see this in action: the upper band held after the […]

September 25, 2025 | ECB: Keep Calm and Carry Cash

The European Central Bank (ECB) is urging citizens to “keep calm and carry cash.” The ominous message is a warning of trouble ahead. Bank runs, defaults, war, grid failures, pandemics—the current banking system cannot rely on what’s ahead. “Cash provides essential redundancy – a ‘spare tire’ – for the payment system,” the study’s authors write. […]

September 24, 2025 | Trump calls Russia a ‘Paper Tiger,’ & Tells Zelensky He Can Now Invade Even Russia

  Within months of Zelensky’s election, on December 20th, 2019, Ukrainian law enforcement raided both Poroshenko’s party headquarters and gym on the orders of President Zelensky, who has turned out to be ruthless and a questionable head of state. The raid was intended to eliminate any possible influence of Poroshenko going forward. It was used […]

September 24, 2025 | Good News and Bad News

Institutional exposure to equities is at its highest level since November 2007, and American households’ allocation to stocks has surpassed the 2000 tech-bubble highs. Trading volume on U.S. stock exchanges last week reclaimed last April’s record high. At the same time, as debt prices have soared, the yield reward that investors are receiving from owning […]

September 23, 2025 | Canada Paying for Housing Excesses with Interest

Last week, Equifax Canada reported that 286,000 businesses in this country missed a loan payment last quarter. In the Greater Toronto Area, the number of mortgage lenders repossessing homes and selling them has climbed roughly 60 per cent year over year. Ninety-day-plus mortgage delinquency rates are climbing in Greater Toronto, Greater Vancouver and Canada generally, according to data from RBC. […]

September 23, 2025 | Maxime Bernier: Speech – A Monetary Reset is Coming and Canada Isn’t Prepared

Maxime Bernier Capitalism & Morality Conference Vancouver, August 23, 2025 Good morning! Thank you Jayant for inviting me again to speak at your conference. This conference consistently brings together a serious and thoughtful group of people interested in ideas. I must say, you have to be truly interested in ideas to be looking forward to […]

September 23, 2025 | Thailand Freezes Over 3 Million Bank Accounts

Thailand has become a case study for the use of biometric data in every facet of life. Every banking transaction is monitored and scrutinized. Any perceived discrepancy is flagged as fraud and punished without due process. Regulations have overwhelmed the system, resulting in a full-fledged banking crisis. Over three million Thai bank accounts were frozen […]

September 22, 2025 | The Fed Cuts Interest Rates…And Money Gets Tighter

Last week, the Fed started easing again, with a quarter-point cut in its overnight lending rate and a promise of more to come. But the bond market was not impressed: 10-year Treasury yield hits 2-week high despite Fed rate cut this week (CNBC) – U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday as investors weighed the state […]

September 22, 2025 | Imminent Bounce

Happy Monday Morning! As expected, Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada slashed rates by 25bps this past week. The Bank pushed aside inflation concerns, suggesting “There was a clear sense that the balance of risk had shifted… Tariffs are weakening the Canadian economy.” Job losses are picking up momentum. The unemployment rate has ticked […]

September 22, 2025 | Most Have No Idea What’s Happening with Their Money

At the end of June 2025, the Global Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) industry had 14,390 products, with 28,447 listings, from 876 providers on 81 exchanges in 63 countries (source: ETFGI). As shown below, since 2007, the $16.99 trillion USD of global market value was 5.7x the $2.948 Tn in 2015 and 20x the $831 billion of […]

September 21, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for September 20, 2025

Keep dancing until the music stops The S&P 500 Index closed the week at 6664, a new record high, up 10X from the March 2009 lows of 666, and up ~38% from the April lows. The rally in global stock indices is impressive as capital flows into equity markets everywhere. China is experiencing deflation, as […]

September 21, 2025 | Lula Refuses to Speak with Trump

  Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is actively destroying a once-growing economy. Lula told the BBC he refuses to maintain diplomatic ties with the United States under Donald Trump, and Brazil is losing the title of Latin America’s top exporter to the US. “The American people will pay for the mistakes President Trump […]

September 20, 2025 | The Rules Have Changed

Monetary policy is a balancing act. The Federal Reserve’s “dual mandate” requires it to promote both maximum employment and stable prices. Statutorily, neither is more important than the other. The Fed is supposed to seek both at the same time. Of course, there are those of us across the spectrum who think one or the […]

September 20, 2025 | Chicago’s Pension Funds are Nearly Insolvent – Incoming $28m Bailout

    Chicago’s money trees are shedding their autumn layers with a new multi-million dollar government payout package for underfunded public pensions. City officials approved a short-term bailout of the Firemen’s Annuity & Benefit Fund to the tune of $28 million to avoid forced asset sales. That is merely the tip of the iceberg, as […]

September 20, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday September 20th 2025

The Bottom Line “Sell on Rosh Hashanah, buy on Yum Kippur”: Ancient Jewish saying related to U.S. equity markets! It predicts a brief period of seasonal weakness for U.S. equity markets. This year, the period is from Monday September 22nd to Wednesday October 1st. The saying coincides closely with the weakest two week period in […]

September 19, 2025 | Coffee Prices on the Rise

Coffee prices are the latest grocery item troubling American consumers. The United States is the world’s largest importer of coffee, but produces less than 0.1% of all coffee for domestic consumption, importing over $8.2 billion (1.6 metric tons) of coffee last year alone. The average retail price of coffee spiked 21% in the past year, […]

September 19, 2025 | Powell Only Has Bad and Worse Options

Powell’s Quandary: Bad and Worse Options Chair Jerome Powell of the U.S. Federal Reserve admits he is in a bind: the economy is flashing both weak job numbers and rising inflation. What’s a Fed to do? This week the Fed trimmed its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.125 percent — still about 1.4 […]

September 19, 2025 | The 4th Monkey

September 19, 2025 | Will Demographics Fix Inequality?

We Baby Boomers are no longer the biggest generation. Millennials and Gen Z now outnumber us: But when it comes to wealth, we rule. Thanks to the past few decades’ asset price inflation, we’ve accumulated an aggregate net worth that surpasses all other generations combined. No wonder young people don’t trust the system. Here’s a […]

September 18, 2025 | Fed Rate Cuts – All About Jobs

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to lower rates by 25 bps at the September meeting, citing “that downside risks to employment have risen.” I reported in December 2024 that the computer had forecast a decline in employment during the incoming Trump Administration. Based on the most recent data, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, […]

September 17, 2025 | High Hopes on Central Bank ‘Fixers’

Like last September, financial markets have high hopes for rate cuts and dovish comments from the US Fed and Bank of Canada today. Futures markets are pricing 150 basis points of Fed cuts by the end of 2026 (taking Fed policy down to 2.75% to 3%) and 75 basis points from the Bank of Canada […]

September 17, 2025 | A National Divorce

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene voiced a harsh truth: America is a divided nation. These differences appear irreconcilable, and Greene is proposing “a peaceful national divorce.” Which state will file the papers first? The computer system warned long ago that the United States would not remain as one country indefinitely. The cycle of political disintegration is […]