ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
August 4, 2025 | Retail and Tech Jobs At-Risk in the US
US employers have reduced their workforce more in the first seven months of 2025 than in all of 2024. The DOGE cuts to the public sector were the primary driver of layoffs; however, there has been a notable drop in retail and technology positions in the private sector. July alone saw 62,000 jobs reduced from […]
August 3, 2025 | Disappointment with Trump Raising Serious Concerns Worldwide
QUESTION: This may seem to be a conspiracy theory, but has a double been sent in to pretend he is Trump. The anti-war old Trump has moved nuclear subs to the border of Russia, and the Telegraph reported that no president has ever played a game of nuclear brinkmanship. Trump looks different and much older […]
August 3, 2025 | Prepare to Muddle Through?
I am widely known as the “Muddle Through” guy. The giant US economy is part of an even larger global economy that doesn’t change direction easily. Major shifts occur slowly, even when presidents, central bankers, and CEOs want otherwise. They don’t have nearly as much power as they may think. That said, these people do […]
August 3, 2025 | Enjoy Tariff Hubris While It Lasts
The stock market is priced for perfection in a grotesquely imperfect world. Trump provided a fleeting respite by showing us how the Art of the Deal works in trade negotiations. Fox News rightly rubbed the legacy media’s face in his success while the President took a half-dozen victory laps to muted global applause. This may […]
August 2, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for August 2, 2025
The S&P closed at record highs last week, but fell to 1-month lows this week The September S&P futures closed at record highs last week, traded higher on Monday, fell off ~100 points to Wednesday’s lows, but gapped higher after the close on strong MSFT and META reports. The market opened higher on Thursday, but couldn’t […]
August 2, 2025 | Soros Assisted Hillary and Obama in Russian Collusion Hoax
Newly declassified documents reveal that George Soros assisted Hillary Clinton in creating the Russian collusion hoax in an attempt to discredit Donald Trump and deceive the American public ahead of a presidential election. Special counsel John Durham’s 2023 report has been largely declassified and now reveals the link between Soros’s Open Society Foundations and the […]
August 2, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 2nd 2025
The Bottom Line North American equity markets have entered their traditional corrective period in August and September during post-U.S. President Election years following an advance from April to July. Strength this year from April to July was prompted by greater (i.e. front end loaded) economic activity prior to launch of tariffs on manufactured products. And […]
August 1, 2025 | Powell Rebukes Trump by Delaying a Rate Cut
Powell Holds the Line as Trump Turns Up the Heat Fed Chair Jerome Powell held interest rates steady again — a direct rebuke to President Donald Trump, who has been publicly and persistently demanding deep rate cuts. Trump wants a 300-basis-point cut — a dramatic move that would drive rates back to 1.5%, where they […]
August 1, 2025 | Warning Sign? S&P and Nasdaq Flash Outside Reversal Patterns
Here are a few key charts that capture today’s market story. We start with the S&P 500 heatmap for Thursday. Outside of a handful of Big Tech names – most notably META and Microsoft, which delivered standout earnings -the broader index was awash in red. Despite strong results from those leaders, both the Nasdaq and […]
August 1, 2025 | State Claims Family’s 175-Year Old Farm under Eminent Domain Laws
A farm with 175 years of family ownership will be seized by the state of New Jersey under eminent domain. The Henry family inherited the 21-acre farm in Cranbury Township in 1850. The farm is still profitable for the Henry family, and they intend to maintain it for generations to come. However, the state […]
July 31, 2025 | Art of the Collapse, August 2025
But now Epstein has competition, from the Russiagate scandal: Also not going away…the public health establishment’s catastrophic fall from grace: And of course, the usual random signs of societal decay: Why life is so hard for our grandkids: The ECB is soliciting design ideas for future euro bills:
July 31, 2025 | Consumers Under Pressure Across The Spectrum
As the US and Canadian central banks declined to offer monetary easing yesterday, consumer confidence measures are already below the levels recorded in the past nine recessions, including the periods surrounding 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic. A raft of recent data shows households under increasing financial stress across all income levels. […]
July 31, 2025 | The GENIUS Act and the National Bank Acts of 1863-64: Taking a Cue from Lincoln
From ScheerPost.com This month Congress passed the GENIUS Act, an acronym for the “Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins of 2025.” Designed to regulate stablecoins, a category of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value, the Act is highly controversial. Critics variously argue that it anoints stablecoins as the equivalent of “programmable” central […]
July 31, 2025 | Why US GDP Rose 3% Q2 2025
Data from the Commerce Department shows that the US gross domestic product rose 3% in Q2 on a seasonally inflation-adjusted basis. The figure may have surpassed estimates by around 0.7%, but it does not indicate the beginning of a rising trend. First, the figure has already been adjusted for inflation to fit a narrative. The […]
July 30, 2025 | US Commercial Crude Stocks Rise 7.7 Mb In Recent EIA Data- Crude Prices Are Vulnerable
Summary: President Trump has announced a trade deal with the EU opening the country to US sales of vehicles, more agricultural goods, wine and mostly energy. Their tariff will be 15% and US goods entering the EU would see no tariff. Prior to the tariff war EU cars paid a 2.5% tariff to enter US […]
July 30, 2025 | EU and IMF Reconsider Funding Ukraine over Govt Corruption
Ukraine was well-known as the most corrupt nation in Europe, if not the world. This is why Ukraine was not permitted to join the European Union, as the bloc determined that the country needed to implement harsh anti-corruption measures if it wanted to join. The EU decided to give that same corrupt government endless […]
July 30, 2025 | Ware Phase of This Fourth Turning Has Arrived
“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward […]
July 29, 2025 | Financial Sobriety is a Rare Superpower Over Time
Speculative trading indicators measure froth in financial markets and indicate when speculators—rather than fundamental investors—are dominating market behavior. As shown below, since 1995, the rebound in speculative measures over the past three months has been one of the sharpest on record, and in rare company with now infamous bubble tops in 1999-2000 and 2021. The […]
July 29, 2025 | EVs Linked to Motion Sickness
New studies reveal that electric vehicles are causing an increase in motion sickness that surpasses the nausea felt while driving in the rattling cars of the 1970s. Motion sickness occurs when our bodily senses conflict with the movement we are experiencing, and the smooth drive of an EV could actually cause drivers and passengers […]
July 28, 2025 | Hoisington Q2 2025 Review and Outlook
Hoisington Management’s 2025 Second Quarter Review and Outlook is available here. At his June 18 press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell referred to tariffs as inflationary. Hoisington points out that this is only the first-round effect: Second, third, and later-round effects also come into play, causing the quantity demanded and price to decrease for the […]
July 27, 2025 | The Schema Frequency
QUESTION: Marty, they call you the legend since you have been calling markets and trends for decades. It is not hard to see that you are perhaps the greatest trader of all time. You are famous for not calling the 1987 Crash, but the very day of the low, you called the low and said […]
July 27, 2025 | Uncertainty Squared
Many people yearn for a simpler life. Ironically, that’s the one thing we’re almost guaranteed not to get. Technology keeps shifting the ground beneath us, mostly for the better, but also creates complications for businesses and individuals. The rules, especially from the government, seem to keep shifting, too. Everything around us just gets more and […]
July 27, 2025 | AI Profits Nowhere in Sight
Although the biggest players in the tech world have sunk trillions of dollars into AI research and development, none of them have made a dime. Will they ever? That’s a reasonable question, considering AI’s potential to change the world remains highly speculative. The investment frenzy continues to gain momentum nonetheless, recalling the South Sea Bubble of the […]
July 26, 2025 | Debt & War
Many have been writing in about the FT’s article on the UK surpassing China as the 2nd largest holder of US debt. While they understand I have laid out that ever since the Biden Administration that was in the hands of the Neocons began threatening China with war over Taiwan, and in the aftermath of […]
July 26, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for July 26, 2025
Markets are not expecting RISK! The leading global equity indices are at or near all-time highs. The S&P is up ~33% from the April lows, the NAZ is up ~42%. (NVDA is up >100%.) (Open interest in the S&P futures market fell to an 18-year low this week. Perhaps because one S&P futures contract is now […]