Thoughts from the Front Line - Today, we have a different kind of letter. I’ve been in California for some rather innovative and hopefully life/health span-extending medical treatment. I’m fine, but it has been a bit tiring. So this week, I’m handing the keyboard to you, my intrepid and smart readers. This is easier than it used to be, thanks to […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - If you’re a parent or grandparent, you may know of the “Choose Your Own Adventure” storybook series. Written in second person, they make “you” the hero. The reader makes choices as the story unfolds, leading to one of several possible endings. That format is disturbingly similar to a lot of economic forecasting. The economist—who of […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - One of the more fascinating and mysterious parts of watching the Federal Reserve is the ongoing dialogue between Fed leaders and Wall Street. We imagine private meetings held in great secrecy. Those may in fact occur, but I’m not sure they are even necessary. The parties exchange their requests publicly. All those speeches, interviews, and […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - Modern economies, even small ones, are unfathomably complex. The number of variables is far more than any human can comprehend or any model can track. It’s really no wonder so many forecasts are wrong. In my 2024 forecast letter I predicted “A Muddle-Through Year.” That’s still what I expect… but not for everyone, nor for every […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - “The Fickle Nature of Confidence” Stratospheric Heights Patience Pays Off New York, Somewhere in Florida, and… In thinking about the 2020s, I often find myself looking back to the 1920s. That decade began with a deep recession/depression and ended with a stock market crash. While we now see the 1920s as a kind of “in […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - “Two is better than one” is a nice saying, but it really depends on what you’re describing. Two hurricanes or earthquakes aren’t better than one. Just one disaster at a time will suffice, thank you very much. The same holds true for man-made crises like the debt fiasco we’ve been discussing. Last week in No Way […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - Having now spent almost six months describing the historical cycles and massive debt that surround us, I find myself looking for an “easy” exit. Maybe one exists, but I haven’t found it yet. I think we’re stuck. The building will have to collapse around us before we can leave. This is obviously not a great […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - First, let me wish you the best for the new year. I look forward to exploring it with you. It’s forecast season again, the time when people like me tell people like you what will happen this year. Sadly, we are often wrong. It turns out predictions are hard, especially those about the future (with […]