Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Anticipation ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first rate cut is growing. Traders are betting on a first quarter-point cut at the meeting on September 17-18 as the most likely date, with more cuts to come later this year in November and December. But traders are wrong in thinking that rate cuts are good for […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canada remains far behind many other developed countries in the OECD when comparing expenditures on research and development as a portion of GDP. This lack of investment will continue to hurt Canadian economic growth and productivity for years to come unless changes are made. Can Canada boost its research and development spending? Total research and […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - On July 5, 2024, the unemployment rate in the U.S. was announced at 4.1 percent. This report appears to have triggered an extremely reliable recession indicator.   The Sahm Rule, named after former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, says that if the unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percent from the bottom a recession has already […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The resilience of Canadians and the Canadian financial system is very important to Canadians. The Bank of Canada monitors this, and reports that the financial system is sound. But there are a large number of mortgage renewals and payment adjustments about to hit over the next few years. In a recent speech Tiff Macklem, BOC […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Growing China-based production of solar panels and other key components ensures that a massive supply glut will arrive in 2024. Prices for solar panels are plummeting in most world markets, but the U.S. consumer will pay substantially higher prices. According to Bloomberg BNEF, China-based manufacturers continue to build new capacity beyond the level of expected […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Real residential house prices in Canada have grown by more than four-fold since 1970. This means that house prices have grown much faster than inflation, and housing unaffordability is extreme compared to the past and other countries like the U.S. Can the housing market in Canada be fixed? This chart shows prices indexed to 100 […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 bps on Wednesday and the ECB made a similar cut on Thursday. This marks a significant moment in the history of interest rate policy changes and could be a turning point. CPI Inflation has moderated enough (2.7 percent) to allow cuts without a loss of credibility. […]