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Don Vialoux

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Donald Vialoux is author of the free blog Tech Talk, a daily investment report available during the past 20 years at www.timingthemarket.ca. Comments focus on the seasonal and technical outlook for equity indices, commodities and sectors. Mr. Vialoux has 53 years of experience in the investment industry and is a past president of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA).

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The Summer Stock Market Rally from late June until at least the end of July has started. Corporate focuses this week are on second quarter results released on Friday by U.S. money-centered banks (including JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Bank of New York Mellon): According to www.FactSet.com “Bank earnings season […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The stage is set for the Summer Rally. See comments below Economic News This Week   June ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday is expected to increase to 49.0 from 48.7 in May. May U.S. Construction Spending is released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week is on the May Core PCE Price Index released on Friday. This report is the FOMC’s most important indicator for inflation. A drop below the 2.8% annual rate set in April will signal easing inflation pressures and will set the stage for the traditional “Summer Rally” by U.S. equity […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Investors responded to encouraging U.S. economic news last Wednesday. Core May Consumer Price Index on a year-over-year basis dropped to 3.4%, extending an intermediate downtrend. U.S. equity indices moved higher on the news: the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ Composite Index jumped to all-time highs in anticipation of a lower Fed […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week is on news following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday in response to the stronger than expected U.S. May employment report released last Friday: May Non-farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings came in “hotter” than expected. Under these conditions a reduction in the Fed Fund Rate by the FOMC probably […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity markets responded favourably to the April core PCE Price Index report released on Friday. Consensus was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in March. Actual was an increase of 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the Index gained 2.8%, in line with consensus. This Index is the […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The gain by one stock dominated performances by the S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite Index last week, the 15% price advance by heavily weighted Nvidia following release of its better than expected quarterly results. Other major U.S. equity indices were notably weaker: Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.33%, Dow Jones Transportation […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The “bulls” regained control of U.S. equity markets last week. S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones  Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite Index broke to all-time highs. Leadership was provided by technology sector: Technology SPDRs (Symbol: XLK) moved above $212.00 to an all-time high. A speculative spike in the “Meme stocks” also contributed to […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line All-time highs at the close on Friday for the Europe, Africa and Far East Index (EAFE Index) and its related ETF: EFA! Strength in the Index was bolstered by an all-time high set by Europe iShares (IEV) and by strength in Chinese and South African equity indices. Honorable mention is given to […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The Fabulous Four (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta) dominated technical action by broadly based U.S. equity indices last week. Higher than consensus quarterly results by these dominant companies prompted analysts to increase significantly first quarter earnings and revenues estimates for the S&P 100 Index and the NASDAQ 100 Index. Their strong earnings gains […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week in on the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates announced on Wednesday at 2:00 PM EDT. Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate currently at 5.25%-5.50%. The question is “How long will the Fed maintain this rate?” Release of a slightly “hotter than consensus” March core […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Short term technical action by world markets remains focused on the Israel/Iran conflict. Growing uncertainties had a negative impact on equity markets and a positive impact on commodity prices last week. First quarter earnings report season ramps up this week. Responses to results released to date have been mixed. Focuses this week […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line U.S. equity markets were “off to a rough start” last week following initial releases of first quarter results by major companies: Notably weaker following release of quarterly results included Blackrock, Fastenal, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Weakness was recorded despite corporate reports that exceeded revenue and earnings consensus. Trigger for weakness […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line World equity indices moved slightly lower last week. Exceptions were the TSX Composite Index and the Shanghai Composite Index. Industrial commodities and related equities continued to move higher. ‘Tis the season for industrial commodity prices and their related Exchange Traded Funds to move higher until early June!
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