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June 11, 2026 | Is This The Market Top?
Martin Straith
S&P 500 — Is the Rally Over? June 11, 2026
The S&P 500 has hit some turbulence after a remarkable run. Here’s what’s happening and what to watch for.
The backstory in plain English
From early April through late May, the S&P 500 climbed in one of the cleanest, most consistent rallies of the year — rising from around 6,400 all the way to 7,600. Every pullback found buyers, and the market marched steadily higher along a rising trendline.
That trendline broke on June 3rd. When a trendline that clean breaks, it matters.
What has happened since
The S&P has now dropped from its highs near 7,600 down to 7,289 — a decline of roughly 4%. That may not sound dramatic, but it’s how it’s falling that concerns us technically:
- The market broke below 7,337 — a key support level it had respected for weeks
- That level is now acting as resistance — meaning the market has to fight to get back above it
- We’ve seen a lower low — the latest drop went below the previous pullback low, a classic early warning sign
The three stages we are watching for a market top
- Stage 1 ✅ — Market pierces a previous low then bounces. Warning shot — roughly 60% probability of a top
- Stage 2 ✅ — Market closes below that low on a daily basis. Stronger signal — probability rises to ~70%
- Stage 3 ⏳ — Market bounces, but the bounce fails below the previous high, creating a lower high — then rolls over again. This would push probability to 75-80%
We have two of three stages complete. Stage 3 is setting up right now.
What to watch this week
The market is bouncing Thursday morning — that’s normal and expected. The critical question is: does this bounce run out of steam below 7,600? If it does, and the market rolls over again, that lower high completes the pattern and significantly raises the odds that the April-to-June rally is over for now.
We are not chasing this bounce. We’re watching where it stops.
What this means for our subscribers
No changes for now. But we could add an insurance play soon.
Stay tuned!
Martin
As always, this is not financial advice. Markets can and do surprise — these are probabilities, not certainties.
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Martin Straith June 11th, 2026
Posted In: The Trend Letter