US Consumer sentiment sank about 11% this month, extending a decline that began with the start of the Iran conflict, and is currently about 9% below a year ago.
Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall. One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% and are now 6% below last April.
It seems gaslighting by stock market cheerleaders can’t fool all of the people all of the time. Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values.
Buying conditions for durables and vehicles worsened again, driven by high prices. (source: U of M), Also see US Consumer Sentiment Drops to Record Low on Price Concerns.
The preliminary April sentiment index slumped to 47.6 from 53.3 in March (top left below), while inflation expectations rose, current economic conditions hit a record low, and the current financial situation index hit the lowest since March 2009.
Yesterday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reduced its third estimate of real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for the final quarter of 2025 to an annualized rate of 0.5 percent, down from 1.4% in the advance report and 0.7% in the second estimate.
At the end of February, StatsCan said Canada’s economy contracted .60% annualized in the final quarter of 2025. We get the Q1 GDP growth estimate on May 29th.
Today, StatsCan announced that the economy added a modest 14,000 jobs in March, clawing back a fraction of the 109,000 job losses seen during the first two months of the year (shown below).
In the World Happiness Report 2026 Canada ranked 25th out of 147 countries– its worst-ever showing in the 14 years the report has been published. A decade ago, Canada ranked 6th, in the same league as Scandinavian countries.
The situation is particularly dire among young Canadians — when only under-25s are counted, Canada falls to 71st place. Young people were once the happiest Canadian cohort; now they are the most miserable. Compared with 136 countries, Canada’s 10-year drop in youth life satisfaction ranks among the largest in the world. (Source: The Globe and Mail)
In the Ipsos Global Happiness Survey 2026, financial situation was cited as the number one cause of unhappiness, cited by 57% of respondents. (Ipsos)
The common thread across all surveys is a country that is holding together on the surface but facing real and deepening unhappiness, particularly among younger generations, driven by unaffordable housing, financial insecurity, and social factors, including social media use.
Stocks started the day on a positive note, but are falling off again in the early afternoon. Only high-frequency traders and those acting on inside information can trade with confidence. Everyone else has good reason to be cautious, at least until asset prices come down enough to restore some margin of safety.
Remember, when it’s time to buy, most won’t want to, and few will have meaningful cash to deploy.