March 6, 2026 | Trump Holds a Weak Hand Heading into the Upcoming Summit

Trump Heads to Beijing With a Weak Hand

When Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping in Beijing later this month, the setting will look like a diplomatic summit.

But the real story is leverage—and right now China appears to have more of it.

The three-day meeting comes as tensions rise over U.S. military action in Iran. Beijing has issued only muted public criticism, but the conflict directly threatens one of China’s key energy suppliers.

China is the largest buyer of discounted Iranian oil. But those shipments account for only about 10 percent of China’s crude imports.

If the conflict continues into late March, it will hang over every discussion between the two leaders.

China’s leverage

China arrives with a powerful negotiating tool: rare earth minerals.

Beijing controls most of the global processing chain for these materials, which are essential to advanced electronics and modern weapons systems.

Yttrium—used in jet engines and turbine coatings—is already in short supply.

Prices have jumped roughly 60 percent since the last Trump-Xi meeting in October 2025.

Chinese exports of yttrium to the United States have fallen about 90 percent over the past year, while shipments to Germany have surged four-fold.

Tariffs weaken Trump’s position

Tariffs will also dominate the agenda.

But Trump’s bargaining position has been weakened by a recent Supreme Court ruling limiting his authority to impose them.

That removes one of Washington’s most powerful negotiating threats.

The oil factor

Another Chinese strategic advantage may lie in energy.

Beijing has spent years diversifying suppliers and building massive storage capacity. Analysts estimate the country holds roughly 1.1 billion barrels of crude in reserve. Oil represents about 18 percent of primary energy consumption compared with roughly 38 percent in the U.S.

If Middle East armed conflicts trigger a global oil shortage, the political consequences would likely fall harder on Washington.

A spike toward $100 oil just as the U.S. summer driving season begins—and with mid-term elections approaching—would be a serious problem for the White House.

Conclusion

Diplomatic summits are often about optics.

But when Trump and Xi sit down in Beijing, the underlying question will be simple:

Can Trump avoid walking away empty-handed?

Hilliard MacBeth

Hilliard MacBeth March 6th, 2026

Posted In: Hilliard's Weekend Notebook

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