November 20, 2025 | S&P 500 Hits Channel Resistance: Is a 10% Pullback Ahead?

The S&P 500 continues to trade within a well-defined long-term rising channel, and once again the top of that channel has proven to be formidable resistance. Each time the index has reached this upper boundary, buyers have faded and a correction has followed—exactly what we’re seeing now. Likewise, the lower boundary of the channel has repeatedly acted as reliable long-term support, marking important reversal points throughout 2021–2024. With the index rolling over after touching resistance, the current pullback will likely continue toward the 6100 area—a level that aligns with previous support and represents roughly a 10% decline from the recent peak.

Chart Description:

• Upper yellow channel line: Major resistance. Every touch (late 2021, mid-2024, late-2025) has led to a reversal.

• Lower yellow channel line: Strong long-term support marked by multiple rebounds (2021–2024).

• Current action: Price is turning down after tagging the upper boundary.

The dashed green horizontal line at ~6100 corresponds to:

• Previous support

• Mid-channel equilibrium

• A retracement of roughly 10% from recent highs

Given the technical setup, a pullback to the 6100 area is a very reasonable and likely target for this correction.

That level should act as the first meaningful support before any deeper test of the lower trend boundary.

Stay tuned!

Martin Straith November 20th, 2025

Posted In: The Trend Letter

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