November 28, 2025 | Black Friday Shoppers Prepared to Take on Debt

Retailers are predicting a slight decline in Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales, an early indication of holiday-season spending and Q4 sales. Total sales in the US alone are expected to exceed $1 trillion, with growth between 3.7% and 4.2%, a bit beneath last year’s 4.8% growth. However, individual shoppers are expected to spend 4% less.

Dive Research found that 70% of American consumers cited the rising cost of living as their reason for cutting back this holiday season. Groceries, in particular, have 57% of shoppers reconsidering their gift purchases. Consumers spend when they believe it will be more expensive tomorrow, leading 88% of respondents to say they will participate in Black Friday/Cyber Monday, though 12% admit Cyber Week is a marketing gimmick for most items.

Deloitte research also found that 82% of respondents plan to shop this week, up from 79% in 2024. The average person is expected to spend $622, down 4% from 2024. Yet, two-thirds of those surveyed (64%) admitted they plan to use financing options to complete their purchases at a time when household debt is at a record high in America. Around 69% of respondents said they will spend less due to the increased cost of living, while 43% will pull back on spending due to financial constraints. Deloitte also found that those who plan to use financial options will spend 12% more than those paying outright.

Most shoppers plan to rack up their credit cards without setting foot in a store. Online shopping has dominated the holiday sales seasons, and a number of studies show that consumers are more likely to spend more when shopping online. Drive’s study found that 81% of consumers will use AI this year to find the best deals and compare past prices. Over 30% of consumers will ask AI to compile gift options for specific relatives and friends. Not so coincidentally, the majority of AI platforms have introduced e-commerce features over the past year. Walmart, Alibaba, and Amazon each offer company-provided AI tools to assist shoppers. ChatGPT implemented a new feature this year that combines chatting with consumerism. Mention a need, and the system will conveniently provide you with links to a list of products. Marketing to the masses has never been easier.

Consumers will continue to consume, albeit slowly sinking further into debt and exacerbating the private debt crisis.

Martin Armstrong November 28th, 2025

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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