June 16, 2025 | Is the Goal an Iranian Regime Change?

Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on June 13, 2025, in an attempt to stop Israel’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs to “roll back the Iranian threat for Israel’s survival.” Mossad intelligence agents penetrated Iranian facilities with small explosive drones. Simultaneously, 200 Israeli fighter jets carried out precision strikes on over 100 targets. Over 20 senior Iranian commanders and nine nuclear scientists were killed in the attack. Although several nuclear sites were severely damaged, the attack was not enough to disarm Iran.

As I explained in an earlier post, Israel claims it cannot remove Iran’s nuclear capabilities without US assistance. “We’re geared to do whatever is necessary to achieve our dual aim, to remove … two existential threats – the nuclear threat and the ballistic missile threat,” Netanyahu said in one of his first interviews since Israel’s attacks began. When asked whether a regime change was part of his strategy, Bibi replied, “Could certainly be the result because the Iran regime is very weak.”

Israel claimed it was under attack but did not submit a formal Article 51 to notify the United Nations Security Council. Why would they? No one respects the United Nations, and Bibi is wanted by the ICC as a war criminal. “We did act to save ourselves, but also, I think, to not only protect ourselves, but protect the world from this incendiary regime. We can’t have the world’s most dangerous regime have the world’s most dangerous weapons,” Bibi asserted.

Donald Trump maintains that he did not support Israel’s actions and has warned Iran not to attack the US or it will face the “full strength and might” of the US military. Iran could end Israel’s aggression by halting its nuclear program, Donald Trump insisted, but Iranian leaders said they would not negotiate while under attack.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared Israel “unleashed its dirty and bloody hand to commit a crime” and warned the nation to “anticipate a severe punishment.” Yet, Iran was unable to launch a full-scale retaliation against Israel as the US intervened. According to Iran, America has already joined the war. Khamenei declared that the attack “could not have been carried out without coordination with and approval of the United States,” and vowed to hold the US “responsible for the dangerous consequences of Israel’s adventurism.”

The Iranian regime does not want a direct war with the United States and has made baseless threats in the past. The US previously had no interest in attacking Iran but here we are. Not only is Israel incapable of disarming Iran, but the nation also does not have the backing to support a full regime change in Iran. The feat itself has proven impossible over the past 25 years as there have been 8 failed attempts by various groups.

War may not interest the US, but installing a puppet government in certainly does. The Neocons have had their sights on Iran for decades because it sits at the heart of the Middle East—bordering Russia, near China’s Belt & Road, and controlling the vital Strait of Hormuz, the choke point for nearly a third of the world’s oil.

Trump has hinted that the United States may become directly involved. “We’re not involved in it. It’s possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved,” the US president stated. He also alluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin may want to become involved. In fact, Trump stated Iran was the main topic of discussion when he last spoke to Putin. “He is ready. He called me about it. We had a long talk about it. We talked about this more than his situation,” Trump said, referring to Putin’s ongoing war in Ukraine. “This is something I believe is going to get resolved.”

The West took Syria from Russia, and Russia has reason to maintain a stronghold in the Middle East. Could this become the next base for a proxy war? Unlike Ukraine or Syria, we are dealing with a nation that already has a nuclear program.

The US has every incentive to desire a regime change in Iran. Iran wouldn’t peg their oil sales to the dollar under SWIFT, and worse, they began trading oil for gold with nations like India and China. This is no different from the playbook used against Saddam in Iraq and Gaddafi in Libya. Both moved to sell oil outside the dollar system. That sealed their fate. Iran was always next on the list.

The danger here is that Iran is not isolated. It’s tied to Russia, China, and increasingly, the BRICS alliance. A misstep in Iran doesn’t just risk another failed state. The risk is an all-out global conflict with nations that are prepared to use their nuclear arsenal as a last resort.

Martin Armstrong June 16th, 2025

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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