June 27, 2025 | Black Swans: What If Mexico Nationalizes Silver?

Bad for some miners, great for physical silver

Mexico is by far the world’s biggest source of silver:

So what happens there matters to all silver investors. And things seem to be changing:

Sheinbaum maintains Mexico’s freeze on new mining concessions

(BNAmeicas) – Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum reiterated that no new mining concessions will be granted during her administration, particularly for open-pit mining, continuing the freeze her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador started in 2018.

Sheinbaum’s statement comes despite the economy ministry and the private sector having signed an agreement last week that seeks to guarantee mining self-sufficiency in a geopolitical context that forces the country to strengthen its capabilities against potential rivals.

“No new concessions will be granted, that’s it… There are no new mining concessions,” Sheinbaum said during her Monday press conference when asked if the agreement and the halting of a legislative initiative to ban open-pit mining implied a departure from López Obrador’s policy.

“So, mining is an activity with a high environmental impact. In that sense, there are no concessions, and the mines that currently exist are being reviewed for their environmental impact to determine how far extraction can continue,” Sheinbaum added.

This is as ominous as it sounds, according to mining analyst Lobo Tiggre:

Political Risk Alert: Mexico (Again)

Scheinbaum is talking about curtailing existing mining, not just refusing to issue new concessions—especially for open-pit projects… And the permits? That’s for necessary maintenance of existing mines, not new ones. Caveat emptor.

Meanwhile, the Silver Academy Substack has been covering this story in depth. Some recent posts:

SilverSqueeze 2.0 and Mexico’s Nationalism: Once in a Lifetime Opportunity

Mexico: One Sandal Away from Nationalizing Silver

Sheinbaum Launches Bold Crusade to Reclaim Energy Sovereignty

SELL SELL SELL, if you own Silver Mining Stocks Operating in Mexico

Liquidate Your Mexican Mining Stocks Now. Resource Revolution Underway

Here’s a video from silver specialist David Morgan that explains some of the implications of Mexico’s changing policies. He’s concerned but not apocalyptic.

Yet another reason to own physical

It seems like every major resource-producing country has one or another kind of geopolitical risk these days. Will the worst-case scenario play out in every situation? Almost certainly not. But it’s impossible to predict which destructive thing will happen where.

Suffice it to say that a flat-out nationalization of Mexico’s silver resources would be a serious problem for the miners now operating there. AND it would be a potentially dramatic boost for the price of silver, as supplies became suddenly unreliable.

The solutions?

1. Emphasize physical metals to a greater extent than would be necessary in a world free of geopolitical risk. That means coins and bars held in accessible places, physical ETFs run by trustworthy custodians, and bullion held in dedicated storage facilities.
2. With mining stocks, pay extra attention to jurisdiction, and overweight exposure to the dwindling number of safe locations.

A deeper dive into which of our Portfolio’s miners depend on Mexico is coming. In the meantime, don’t avoid those stocks altogether, but do approach them with caution while that country’s mining policies evolve.

John Rubino June 27th, 2025

Posted In: John Rubino Substack

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