ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
April 19, 2026 | Divergent Data
I’ve been traveling for a week, reading and talking to a lot of readers and friends. It seems to me there is a great deal of angst in the media and newsletters and podcasts. And the more bearish you are, the greater your audience and clicks. There are so many analysts taking one or two […]
April 19, 2026 | Socrates & the War
QUESTION: Marty, I know you taught Socrates how to analyze rather than what. I remember you saying it checks every possible avenue, because you cannot predict what might replace fossil fuels as an energy source in the future. I really am amazed, and I can see why they tried to get you to turn over […]
April 19, 2026 | Explosive Rally Is a Dangerous Deception
You can hardly blame Trump for playing up the stock market’s spectacular performance whenever anyone challenges the way he is conducting the war, or claims the jihadists are winning. Even in the editorial rooms of the New York Times and Bloomberg, where a virulent strain of Trump Derangement Syndrome still lingers, news editors are finding their caustic opinions […]
April 19, 2026 | Mining is Hard: When Governments Demand a Bigger Cut
Governments, by their nature, are always starved for revenue. Most of the time, they respond by raising taxes on their subjects’ income or real estate (see New York’s “pied-à-terre” tax). But sometimes they go after foreign investors, like miners, who, they claim, are making too much money. This can be a game-changer for those mines and […]
April 18, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for April 18, 2026
The leading stock indices surged to new record highs this week S&P futures closed green for 14 of the past 15 trading days, rising ~13% to new all-time highs. Half of those gains came this week. The market gapped down 100 points on Sunday afternoon following “no agreement” at the Islamabad peace talks, but then soared […]
April 18, 2026 | How Does Socrates Predict Civil Unrest?
April 18, 2026 | Tech Talk for Saturday April 18th 2026
The Bottom Line Peace has “broken out” in the Middle East (at least temporarily). Equity markets around the world responded accordingly on Friday. Look for more good news this week! First quarter results released to date by U.S. companies generally have exceeded consensus estimates (notably by most major banks). Frequency of first quarter reports by […]
April 17, 2026 | The Hang Seng index is in a unique bear market
Remember the investors who saw what nobody else could see in 2007? There may be another moment like that unfolding right now — this time in Hong Kong. The Hang Seng Tech index is dirt cheap today and the companies leading it are doing well in their businesses even as they trade at extremely low […]
April 17, 2026 | Digital Currency and the End of Financial Privacy
The push toward digital currency is being framed as innovation and efficiency, but when you strip away the marketing language, what is unfolding is a structural transformation of the financial system that shifts control away from individuals and concentrates it within governments and central banks. The Bank for International Settlements has confirmed that more […]
April 16, 2026 | Stocks Betting This Time is Different
Expectations for a resolution of blockages in the Strait of Hormuz have driven a risk-on rebound over the past 2 weeks. Since 1928, this is the first time the S&P has made new all-time highs within 11 days of falling 5-10% (Bespoke). Under the hood, breadth was extremely weak, with just 12 companies making new […]
April 16, 2026 | The Rise of AI in Payments Is Not About Convenience
Visa has just unveiled a new suite of artificial intelligence tools designed to overhaul how credit card disputes are handled, and once again this is being presented as a simple evolution toward efficiency and improved customer experience, yet when you step back and examine the scale of what is unfolding, this is clearly part […]
April 15, 2026 | Canadian Bank Regulator Cites Rising Loan Defaults as Number One Risk
As of January 2026, 3.1 million Canadian mortgages, or 52 percent of all outstanding, were due to renew by the end of 2027, according to the latest report from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI). Of these renewals, 1.3 million are fixed-rate mortgages or variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments that will be […]
April 14, 2026 | Used EV Market Exposes the Cracks
Reports indicate that a wave of used EVs is beginning to hit the market as leases expire, forcing automakers to rethink how they handle pricing and inventory. What was once sold as the inevitable future is now a dud cause with minimal demand. When those vehicles return to the secondary market, they must compete on […]
April 14, 2026 | Oil Drops, Stocks Soar — Defying the Headlines
It has been a wild 12 days. Peace talks have dissolved, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shuttered, and the US has moved from rhetoric to an active naval blockade of Iranian ports. By every traditional rulebook, oil should be moonshotting—yet prices are sliding while the stock market rallies. Today, we look at why the […]
April 14, 2026 | U.S. Oil Blockade| About That
President Donald Trump announced the United States would apply its own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Iran’s de facto shutdown, which is now stretching into its seventh week. But, as Andrew Chang explains, responding this way to Iran’s control of 20 per cent of the world’s energy supply could pose several […]
April 13, 2026 | Shortages Create Gluts
Happy Monday Morning! As we have highlighted previously, the rental market is undergoing a significant correction, and it appears poised to continue. The city of Vancouver saw 2300 purpose-built rental units completed in 2025, the highest in four decades! Source: Daily Hive Keep in mind this is completions. We still have a pipeline full of […]
April 13, 2026 | The Quiet Rise of Capital Controls in America
What most people fail to understand is that governments do not lose control overnight. They lose it gradually, and then they respond in stages. First comes rising debt. Then comes higher taxation. When that fails to produce the expected revenue, the next step is not reform. It is restriction. We are now entering that […]
April 12, 2026 | Hungary Votes for War
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, many others, and I here in Hungary have the utmost respect for you. But you declined to come to Hungary twice. You may have made a difference. FV REPLY: I am terribly sorry. I could not prevent Viktor’s loss. The computer warned that Viktor would lose. The election was going to be rigged from […]
April 12, 2026 | AI Layoffs: Prisoner’s Dilemma + Red Queen = Unavoidable Depression
Academia is starting to analyze “AI layoffs,” and the result is not pretty. A recent study seems to conclude that another Great Depression is unavoidable. From an X post summary, with a few links added for context: Two researchers from UPenn and Boston University just published a paper called “The AI Layoff Trap”. They proved something terrifying.. Every […]
April 12, 2026 | Prop Desk Crooks Take an Unscheduled Breather
It is neither bulls nor bears who move the markets, but crooks, mostly. Spectacular but fleeting rallies draw nearly all of their buying power from panicky short covering that is easily triggered and deftly harvested. I have previously discussed this phenomenon, which is most visible when stocks take unseemly leaps at the opening bell. Although […]
April 11, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for April 11, 2026
Global stocks surge higher as Iran war escalation risks fall At the end of March, the S&P was down ~10.5% from January’s record highs (blue ellipse), but has since rallied over 7% as the market priced in a reduced risk of escalation in the Iran war. Notably, the market began to rally five days before Trump’s latest escalation […]
April 11, 2026 | Tech Talk for Saturday April 11th 2026
The Bottom Line Here comes the good news! First quarter results by major U.S. corporations start appearing in volume this week: Consensus calls for significant year-over-year revenue and earnings gains. Initial focuses this week are reports by major U.S. banks. Also notable will be reports by Taiwan Semiconductor and Netflix on Thursday. The VIX Index […]
April 10, 2026 | Energy Protests in Ireland
Ireland is now confronting a full-scale energy protest movement that has gone far beyond symbolic demonstrations. What began as opposition to rising fuel costs has escalated into coordinated nationwide disruption, with farmers, haulers, and transport operators blocking major motorways, fuel depots, and even the country’s only oil refinery. The scale is unprecedented, with convoys […]
April 10, 2026 | The U.S. Faces an Enormous Challenge in Negotiations with Iran
Iran’s Peace Demands: A Long Road Ahead President Donald J. Trump announced that negotiations to end the war with Iran would be based on a 10-point proposal he described as “workable.” Within hours, Iranian state media outlet IRNA released Tehran’s own list of demands — and Trump erupted on Truth Social, calling the list “fake,” […]
April 10, 2026 | It’s The Economy…
US Consumer sentiment sank about 11% this month, extending a decline that began with the start of the Iran conflict, and is currently about 9% below a year ago. Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this […]