May 10, 2026 | What Billionaires Know About Investing

To the extent we have been successful, it is because we concentrated on identifying one-foothurdles that we could step over rather than because we acquired any ability to clear seven-footers.”   ~ Warren Buffett   This is the Strategic Investment Conference week, and I and our attendees are drinking through a fire hose. There have been […]

May 10, 2026 | The Abundance Paradigm: Why AI Forces Rethinking Money Itself —Part 1

from  Scheerpost   A Universal Basic Income (UBI) has long been proposed as a way to cushion the blow of jobs lost to automation. Under that model, everyone receives a modest monthly payment – enough to cover basic needs and prevent extreme poverty. But Elon Musk has gone further. On April 16, he posted on […]

May 10, 2026 | How To Distinguish a Real Bull Market

  COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, we never met. I was introduced to Socrates at the insistence of a friend at another one of our divisions. There was no 80% Crash on April 29. The whole de-dollarization seems to be another hype, as we have witnessed ourselves. Your system allows you to plot anything in any currency. […]

May 9, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for May 9, 2026

The S&P fell ~10% in March, but surged higher for the last 6 weeks, up ~17% to new record highs The Nasdaq outperformed the S&P, rising ~28% in 6 weeks. The SOXX, the semiconductor ETF, gained ~70% in 6 weeks. North Asian markets (Taiwan, Japan and South Korea) also surged higher, with the (Korean) EWY ETF up […]

May 9, 2026 | Mexicans are Feeling the Economy Grow in Real-Time

  Mexico is increasingly benefiting from one of the largest supply chain realignments in modern economic history. Factories are expanding, industrial wages are rising, foreign investment is pouring in, and millions of Mexicans are experiencing growing economic opportunity in real time as capital shifts closer to the United States. Mexico’s economy is being transformed by […]

May 9, 2026 | Tech Talk for Saturday May 9th 2026

The Bottom Line S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index traded to record territory on Friday as the tech rally continued. Strength was bolstered by a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report released on Friday and hopes for an Iran peace deal. Focuses this week are on inflation reports: U.S. April Consumer Price Index released on […]

May 8, 2026 | A New Voice in Omaha

Greg Abel stepped onto the Omaha stage last weekend facing a question that has lingered ever since Warren Buffett named him successor: can anyone really follow the Oracle? What struck me is that Abel didn’t try to mimic Buffett’s folksy charm or marathon‑style showmanship. Instead, he leaned into who he is — a measured operator […]

May 8, 2026 | Canadians Are Feeling the Economy Collapse in Real-Time

For years, Canadians were told their economy was “strong,” their banking system was “safe,” and their housing market was “resilient.” Now reality is finally colliding with the propaganda as ordinary Canadians increasingly admit they feel trapped financially despite endless government claims that conditions are improving. The numbers are becoming impossible to ignore. Recent polling shows […]

May 8, 2026 | Consumers are Dead, Long Live AI!

Happy Friday! The S&P 500 has soared over 12% since the start of April, and 7% since the start of the Iran war, thanks to a +40% rebound in chip stocks. Half the rally has been accounted for by five companies — Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Broadcom, and Apple.  At the same time, broader sectors like […]

May 7, 2026 | America’s Housing Stress Is Rising, But This Is Not 2008 All Over Again

Foreclosure filings across the United States have now climbed to their highest level in six years, with ATTOM reporting a 26% year-over-year increase as more homeowners fall behind on mortgage payments. Florida and Texas are leading the nation as rising property taxes, exploding insurance premiums, elevated interest rates, and mounting consumer debt place enormous strain […]

May 6, 2026 | Americans Are Feeling the Economy Collapse in Real-Time

A new Gallup poll shows that 55% of Americans now believe their financial situation is getting worse, the highest level recorded since Gallup began tracking the data in 2001. Even during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID lockdown collapse, Americans were not this pessimistic about their personal finances. That alone tells you the mainstream […]

May 6, 2026 | Housing Bust Challenges Retirement Plans

The housing bubble and unaffordable pricing have thwarted the launch plans of new households over the past decade. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported the typical age of first-time buyers climbed to an all-time high of 40 years in 2025, down from around 28 years old in 1991. The share of first-time buyers dropped […]

May 5, 2026 | Canada Is Running Toward Europe as the West Fractures

Mark Carney’s decision to make Canada the first non-European nation ever invited into the European Political Community summit tells you everything about where Ottawa is heading politically. Canada is desperately trying to reposition itself away from the United States because Carney fundamentally views the Trump administration as a threat to the entire postwar global order […]

May 4, 2026 | Alberta Separatism Is Rising Because Ottawa Destroyed Canada’s Economic Balance

I have warned for years that Alberta would eventually reach a breaking point with Ottawa because the federal government has systematically undermined the very industries that support Canada’s economy. Now we are seeing separatist tensions escalating to a new level after Elections Alberta secured a court order forcing a pro-sovereignty organization known as the Centurion […]

May 4, 2026 | Levered Multiplexes

Happy Monday Morning! We’ve written a lot about the Canadian rental market. A rental construction boom financed by the federal government has pushed vacancies to multi-decade highs, and pushed rents down by double digits across most major metros. Rental construction is almost entirely financed through CMHC, a government-owned crown corporation. They are now financing nearly […]

May 4, 2026 | Oil Spikes Rhyme Through Time

History does rhyme. The OPEC oil embargo began in October 1973, when Arab members of OPEC announced an embargo against the United States, Canada, Japan, and Western European nations in retaliation for their support of Israel during the Yom Kippur War. The embargo lasted until March 1974, and its effects were long-reaching: Oil prices quadrupled […]

May 3, 2026 | WWWD?

There is a lot to unwrap this week. We’re going to explore what happened at the Fed, and what changes we can expect. Let’s just say it’s not what some are predicting, at least in my humble opinion. Inflation is sadly a growing problem. And that complicates Kevin Warsh’s coming tenure as Fed chair.   […]

May 3, 2026 | Into Thin Air

These weekly commentaries have struggled to make sense of a world in geopolitical chaos but which is nonetheless transfixed by a financial melt-up that cannot end other than disastrously. Still more challenging is predicting the day-to-day effects on a stock market whose behavior is a perfect analog for acute, mass mental illness. By ascending without […]

May 2, 2026 | Geofence Warrants

May 2, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for May 2, 2026

The soaring tech sector had pulled the S&P and Nasdaq indices to new all-time highs S&P futures have closed higher for five consecutive weeks, after closing lower for five consecutive weeks in February/March. The top 10 stocks in the S&P have accounted for ~75% of the index gains since the March lows. As this chart from […]

May 2, 2026 | Tech Talk for Saturday May 2nd 2026

The Bottom Line Is history for the S&P 500 Index about to repeat? The S&P 500 Index has a long history of entering into a brief corrective period between May 5th and the third week in June. The corrective phase is the basis for the phrase “Sell in May and Go Away”. Seasonal weakness during […]

May 1, 2026 | Party Like It’s… Well, You Know

A number of clients have been asking the same question lately: What gives? Why does the stock market keep rising? It’s a fair question. The S&P 500 continues to levitate, seemingly indifferent to geopolitical tension, sticky inflation, and the growing possibility of a U.S. recession. And while it’s generally considered bad form in finance to invoke 1999—rather […]

May 1, 2026 | The Housing Crisis Nobody Wants To Talk About

This discussion covers some impactful US and Canadian housing trends and assessments. This episode dives into the real state of the U.S. housing market, uncovering early warning signs that many buyers and investors are overlooking. From rising foreclosure risks and FHA loan pressure to affordability challenges and shifting inventory trends, we break down what the […]

May 1, 2026 | UK Retail Sector Collapse

Britain’s retail sector has just posted the worst collapse in sales in more than 40 years, and this is precisely the type of economic deterioration our models have been warning would emerge across Europe into 2028. The Confederation of British Industry reported that its retail sales volume balance plunged to -68 in April from -52 […]